Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Shepherd's Crag has had roughly 18 hours of dry weather following 7.3mm of rain on April 12th, itself part of a very wet spell (nearly 200mm in 28 days). The south-facing aspect and moderate wind will have aided surface drying on the main buttresses, but given the saturated ground and recent heavy rain, seepage areas and shaded sections may still be damp — a visual check on arrival is essential.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after prolonged wet weather, and with ~200mm in the last month this area is very likely to be weeping today.
- Brown Crag routes sheltered by tree cover will dry significantly slower than the open south-facing buttresses and may still hold surface moisture.
- The main south-facing walls (e.g. Little Chamonix buttress, Eve buttress) receive direct afternoon sun and are the most likely sectors to be dry enough for climbing today.
- Borrowdale's valley-floor position can trap moisture and humidity overnight — the overnight humidity of 80–85% may have slowed drying, so surfaces could feel greasy first thing but improve through the afternoon.
Warnings
2
- Brown Crag and North Buttress seepage areas are very likely still wet — do not assume the whole crag is in condition just because the main face looks dry.
- The forecast brings rain from tomorrow through much of the week; today's window is narrow and conditions will not improve if you delay.
Reasoning
The rock received 7.3mm of rain yesterday (mostly in the early hours and mid-morning), and the last precipitation was a trace 0.7mm at 22:00 on April 12th, giving around 14 hours of dry conditions by midday today — enough for surface drying on exposed faces but not for full drying of seepage zones after such a wet month.
The south/south-west aspect and moderate southerly wind at ~15 km/h today, combined with temperatures reaching 9.5°C, should allow the main exposed faces to dry through the morning and into the afternoon, though the overnight humidity of 80–85% will have slowed progress.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet — there is no risk of hold breakage from climbing on damp rock, but friction loss on the rough crystalline surface is significant when damp.
Mid-April in the Lakes is transitional — days are lengthening with reasonable solar angles for a south-facing crag, but temperatures remain cool and the prolonged wet spring means background moisture levels are high.
Contributing Factors
7
7.3mm fell on April 12th with the last trace at 22:00, giving only about 14 hours of drying time by midday today.
198mm in 28 days means the ground is thoroughly saturated, increasing seepage risk and slowing overall drying of sheltered areas.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar gain on an April day, significantly aiding surface evaporation on exposed buttresses.
No rain forecast for April 13th with humidity dropping to 74% and moderate southerly breeze, allowing continued drying throughout the day.
Southerly wind at ~15 km/h and a max of 9.5°C provide reasonable but not exceptional drying conditions for mid-April.
Humidity was 80–85% overnight which may have deposited condensation on the rock surface, partially resetting drying progress.
Rain returns tomorrow (4.8mm) and continues through the week, meaning today may be a narrow window but conditions will not improve further.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon (after 1pm) to maximise drying time on the main south-facing buttresses — routes on the Eve and Little Chamonix buttresses are the best bet.
- Avoid North Buttress entirely today as persistent seepage after 200mm of monthly rainfall is virtually certain.
- Touch-test the rock before committing to any route — if the BVS texture feels at all slippery or greasy rather than abrasive, back off and wait.
Previous Analyses
Do Not Climb
85%
2 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has received significant rainfall today (5mm) on top of 22.5mm yesterday, with no consecutive dry days. The rock will be wet and slippery despite its non-porous nature; conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The south-facing main buttresses will benefit from any afternoon sun that breaks through, but with rain today and high humidity (80%), meaningful surface drying is unlikely.
- North Buttress and Brown Crag area will be particularly wet, as seepage lines activate after the heavy rain on April 11th (22.5mm) and persistent wet weather over the preceding fortnight.
- The sheltered valley position that usually aids drying also means reduced wind penetration, slowing evaporation when humidity is high as it is today.
- The exceptionally rough BVS texture at Shepherd's becomes noticeably greasy when damp — even a thin moisture film drastically reduces the friction that makes these routes climbable at their grades.
Warnings
2
- The rock will be slippery today — climbing on wet BVS rhyolite is a serious fall risk, especially on friction-dependent routes like Brown Crag Wall.
- Seepage lines on North Buttress and tree-shaded areas around Brown Crag will remain wet well after exposed faces have dried.
Reasoning
The rock is almost certainly wet today, with 5mm of rain falling on top of 22.5mm yesterday and a cumulative 35.9mm over the past 7 days, leaving zero consecutive dry days.
Despite the south/southwest aspect, the combination of ongoing rain today, 80% humidity, and moderate winds provides insufficient drying conditions to clear the accumulated surface moisture.
As non-porous Borrowdale Volcanic rock, there is no structural risk from wet climbing — the concern is entirely about dangerously reduced friction on damp surfaces.
Early April in the Lakes means short solar windows, cool temperatures averaging 7°C over the past week, and high background moisture levels that slow drying between frequent rain events.
Contributing Factors
7
5mm today on top of 22.5mm yesterday means the rock surface is actively wet with no drying window.
There has been no sustained dry period to allow the crag to shed surface water and seepage.
221.6mm over 28 days indicates a thoroughly saturated catchment feeding seepage lines across the crag.
Humidity at 80% significantly slows evaporation of surface moisture even with partial wind exposure.
The south/southwest aspect maximises any available solar drying, though this is insufficient to overcome today's rain.
The southwest wind provides some drying effect but cannot overcome active precipitation and high humidity.
The low elevation and short approach mean the crag is warmer than higher venues, marginally aiding drying potential on future dry days.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for at least one full dry day with low humidity before visiting; the south-facing aspect means Shepherd's can come into condition quickly once rain stops.
- Check UKC and the FRCC conditions page for on-the-ground reports before making the journey to Borrowdale.
- If visiting during the upcoming dry spell (April 13th), prioritise the main south-facing buttresses and avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area where seepage will persist longest.
Do Not Climb
90%
3 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently wet after 19.6mm of rain today, with no dry days accumulated. Despite the south-facing aspect and non-porous rock, the crag will be thoroughly soaked and unsafe for climbing due to friction loss on the BVS rock.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Today's 19.6mm of rain follows a very wet period (216.7mm in 28 days), meaning seepage lines on North Buttress will be running heavily and may take several dry days to subside.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be particularly slow to dry and likely still dripping even when the main south-facing buttresses begin to dry.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) are favourable for rapid surface drying once rain stops — in good conditions, exposed faces could dry within hours of the rain ceasing.
- Spring conditions in Borrowdale remain highly changeable; the forecast shows continued intermittent rain through the coming week with no sustained dry spell in sight.
Warnings
3
- Active rainfall today makes all routes dangerously slippery — do not attempt to climb.
- Seepage on North Buttress and the Brown Crag area will persist well beyond any brief dry window given the saturated ground.
- Check BMC RAD for potential bird nesting restrictions — peregrine and raven nesting season is active (February–June).
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from 19.6mm of rain today, compounded by 32mm over the past 7 days and a very wet month overall, leaving the crag thoroughly saturated with active seepage likely.
Strong southerly wind (32.8 km/h) will help surface drying once rain stops, but with rain falling today and light showers forecast tomorrow, there has been no meaningful drying window.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and structurally unaffected by moisture — there is no risk of hold breakage or rock damage from climbing when wet, but the friction loss makes climbing dangerous.
Early April in the Lakes is a transitional period with frequent Atlantic fronts; the 216.7mm monthly total reflects typical spring wetness, and sustained dry spells are rare at this time of year.
Contributing Factors
6
19.6mm of precipitation today means the entire crag surface is currently wet with active runoff.
Zero dry days accumulated means no drying window has occurred since the last significant rainfall.
216.7mm in 28 days has saturated the ground and likely activated all seepage lines on the crag.
32.8 km/h south wind hitting this south-facing crag will accelerate surface drying once rain ceases.
The sunny aspect and 170m altitude are the most favourable drying combination in Borrowdale, but cannot overcome active rainfall.
Light rain forecast on each of the next three days (1.8mm, 0.9mm, 2.1mm) followed by 18mm on April 15th prevents any sustained drying.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the crag is wet and BVS rock loses its renowned friction dramatically when damp.
- Monitor conditions closely; a window may open on April 12–13 if showers are lighter than forecast, but visually inspect rock before committing.
- Consider waiting until after April 17th when a potential dry day may finally allow the crag to dry out properly.
Do Not Climb
55%
4 days ago
Despite a promising dry spell from April 6–8, 7.6mm fell yesterday (April 9) and a further 0.9mm today, meaning the rock is likely still damp. With 22mm forecast tomorrow and continued unsettled weather, conditions are not reliable for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Shepherd's south-facing aspect and low altitude (170m) mean surface moisture evaporates relatively quickly — in good conditions the main faces can dry within hours — but today's cool temperatures (max 7.5°C) and recent rain limit this advantage.
- North Buttress is known to hold seepage after prolonged wet spells, and with over 200mm in the last 28 days the seepage lines are very likely active.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be noticeably slower to dry than the main south-facing buttresses and should be considered damp.
- The rough BVS texture that gives Shepherd's its legendary friction becomes treacherously slippery when even slightly damp — a particular concern on the many friction-dependent classics like Brown Crag Wall.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock becomes very slippery when damp — friction-dependent routes (which characterise much of Shepherd's) are particularly hazardous in these conditions.
- Check BMC RAD for bird nesting restrictions as peregrine and raven restrictions may be active at nearby crags in April.
Reasoning
Rain yesterday (7.6mm) and light rain today (0.9mm) mean the rock surface is likely still damp or at best only partially dried, despite the south-facing aspect.
Moderate southerly winds (23 km/h) and the south/SW aspect aid drying, but cool temperatures (max 7.5°C) and only partial sun exposure in early spring limit evaporation — insufficient time has elapsed since yesterday's rain for confident drying.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural damage when wet; the risk is purely friction-related and climber safety.
Early April in the Lakes is unpredictable; the prolonged wet March (213mm in 28 days) means the ground and surroundings are saturated, contributing ambient moisture and maintaining seepage lines even during short dry spells.
Contributing Factors
6
7.6mm fell on April 9 and 0.9mm today, meaning surfaces have had less than 24 hours of drying since meaningful rainfall.
Over 213mm in the last 28 days has saturated the surrounding ground and hillside, feeding seepage lines and ambient dampness at the crag.
The S/SW aspect at 170m receives good solar radiation and is one of the fastest-drying crags in Borrowdale.
Southerly winds at 23 km/h assist surface evaporation across the main faces.
A maximum of only 7.5°C today limits evaporation rates compared to the warmer spell earlier in the week (15–16°C).
22mm forecast for April 11 means any drying gains today will be reversed, and conditions will deteriorate further.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for a sustained dry spell — the rock needs at least a full dry day with moderate temperatures after the current rain to be reliably dry on the main faces.
- If visiting the area, consider checking UKC or FRCC condition reports for Shepherd's before committing, and have a wet-weather alternative plan.
- Avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area entirely until several dry days have elapsed given the saturated ground and persistent seepage.
Do Not Climb
45%
5 days ago
Today has seen 2.2mm of rain on top of a very wet recent period (252mm in 28 days, 38mm in 7 days), and humidity is high at 81% with overcast skies — the crag is likely damp right now. While Shepherd's Crag dries quickly thanks to its south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock, today's rain and the saturated surroundings mean surface moisture and seepage are probable, making friction unreliable.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after prolonged wet spells — given 252mm in 28 days, seepage lines here are almost certainly active and should be avoided entirely.
- The Brown Crag area is sheltered by tree cover which significantly slows drying; expect this section to remain damp longer than the main south-facing buttresses.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) normally give Shepherd's Crag excellent drying potential, but today's rain, high humidity (81%), and overcast skies are suppressing that advantage.
- Borrowdale is one of the wettest valleys in England and groundwater levels will be very high after the sustained wet period, increasing the chance of unexpected seepage on routes that are normally dry.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — friction loss is sudden and severe; do not trust holds that appear dry if surrounding rock is wet.
- Seepage lines may be active on routes not normally affected due to the exceptionally wet 28-day period (252mm).
Reasoning
Today's 2.2mm of rain on already-saturated ground, combined with 81% humidity and overcast skies, means the rock surface is very likely damp or wet in places right now.
The south-facing aspect has been largely negated today by cloud cover and rain; moderate SW winds (21 km/h) will help surface drying somewhat, but with high humidity the drying rate is poor.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage from moisture — the concern is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Early April in the Lakes means short drying windows, cool temperatures, and high background moisture — spring conditions are improving but still unreliable, and daylight hours limit afternoon drying recovery.
Contributing Factors
8
2.2mm of rain today has re-wetted the rock surface, resetting any drying progress from the excellent conditions on April 7–8.
252mm over 28 days and 38mm in the last 7 days means groundwater is saturated, feeding seepage lines and keeping the surrounding environment damp.
Humidity at 81% today significantly slows evaporation from rock surfaces and may cause condensation in sheltered areas.
Three dry days with warm temperatures (up to 16°C) and low humidity (54%) on April 7 would have dried the main face well before today's rain arrived.
The S/SW aspect gives Shepherd's Crag above-average solar drying potential, but today's overcast skies and rain limit this benefit.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture needs to evaporate — recovery after rain is rapid in good conditions.
SW winds at 21 km/h provide reasonable airflow across the face, aiding surface drying once rain stops.
Humidity rose to 91% overnight with full cloud cover, meaning the rock started today already damp before rain arrived.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for a full dry day with sunshine and lower humidity before committing to routes — tomorrow (April 10) looks more promising with only 0.4mm forecast and 67% humidity.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area entirely until several consecutive dry days have passed, as seepage and tree-shaded dampness will persist.
- If visiting today, restrict activity to the walk-in and visual assessment of the main south-facing buttresses — do not commit to climbing unless the rock is demonstrably bone-dry to the touch.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
62%
8 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had roughly 18 hours of dry weather following scattered light showers yesterday (4mm total on April 5th), but the preceding week has been very wet (nearly 45mm in 7 days) and humidity remains moderately high. The south-facing aspect and today's dry, sunny forecast with a southerly breeze should allow exposed faces to dry, but sheltered areas and seepage zones may still be damp — an on-site assessment is needed before committing to climb.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is known to hold seepage after prolonged wet spells, and with nearly 300mm in the last 28 days, persistent weeps are likely on that section today.
- Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to tree cover and partial shade, so routes there may still feel greasy even if the main south-facing buttresses appear dry.
- The short approach from the road means climbers can quickly check conditions and retreat without a major time commitment if the rock is still damp.
- April daylight and strengthening sun angle on this south-facing crag are helpful, but early spring solar energy is still limited — drying will be most effective in the midday-to-afternoon window.
Warnings
2
- Seepage on North Buttress is very likely given the extremely wet month; avoid routes in that area.
- The BVS rock becomes noticeably slippery when damp — do not trust surface appearance alone; test friction by hand before climbing.
Reasoning
Light scattered showers yesterday (4mm) on top of a very wet preceding fortnight mean the crag has significant residual moisture, though the non-porous BVS rock only holds surface water and seepage rather than absorbing it internally.
Approximately 18 hours of dry weather with a moderate southerly wind (17.6 km/h) on a south-facing aspect at low altitude should dry exposed rock surfaces, but sheltered sections and seepage lines will lag significantly given the saturated ground above.
Non-porous Borrowdale Volcanic rock does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so there is no hold-breakage risk — the concern is purely friction and safety.
Early April in the Lakes brings improving but still-weak solar intensity, short effective drying windows, and unpredictable showers; the crag is only just entering its usable season.
Contributing Factors
6
Nearly 45mm fell in the last 7 days and close to 300mm in the last 28 days, ensuring the hillside above the crag is thoroughly saturated and seepage lines will be active.
Zero precipitation today with dropping humidity (72%), a moderate southerly breeze, and temperatures reaching 10.5°C will promote surface drying on exposed faces.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar gain during the afternoon, and Shepherd's Crag is one of the quickest-drying venues in Borrowdale.
Just one full dry day after the last meaningful rain (4mm yesterday, 24.5mm on April 3rd) is marginal for seepage zones and sheltered sections to fully dry.
A 17.6 km/h southerly wind with partial exposure provides reasonable airflow over the rock faces to assist evaporation.
Average humidity over the last week has been 81%, slowing evaporation rates and keeping the local atmosphere damp.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon to maximise drying time — south-facing surfaces will have had the benefit of several hours of direct sun and wind by mid-afternoon.
- Focus on exposed, well-drained routes on the main south-facing buttresses; avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area which are likely to retain dampness.
- Carry a towel and test friction carefully on lower holds before committing to any route — if the rock feels at all greasy, wait for another dry day.
Do Not Climb
70%
9 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has received significant rainfall over the past week (46.7mm in 7 days, nearly 300mm in 28 days), with rain falling today (2.2mm) and yesterday (7.6mm and 24.5mm in the two days prior). Although strong westerly winds today will aid surface drying, the rock has had zero consecutive dry days and the prolonged wet spell means seepage lines and sheltered areas are very likely still damp — we recommend not climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after prolonged wet weather, and with nearly 300mm in the last 28 days, seepage is almost certain to be active across multiple lines.
- The Brown Crag area dries slower than the main face due to overhanging tree cover, which blocks both sun and wind — expect this area to remain damp longest.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude are working in the crag's favour, but today's westerly wind and cool temperatures (max 4.6°C) limit solar drying effectiveness despite increasing spring day length.
- The rough BVS texture that gives Shepherd's outstanding friction when dry becomes noticeably greasy when damp — residual moisture in cracks and on shaded holds is a genuine slip hazard on the trad routes here.
Warnings
2
- Active seepage is highly likely on North Buttress and drainage lines given the extreme cumulative rainfall — do not assume routes are dry based on the main face appearance.
- BVS rock is noticeably slippery when damp; trad gear placements may also be compromised by water in cracks — test friction carefully before committing to any route.
Reasoning
With 2.2mm of rain today on top of 24.5mm two days ago and 7.6mm yesterday, the rock surface is almost certainly still damp, and the prolonged wet spell (297mm in 28 days) will have saturated drainage lines and seepage zones.
Strong westerly winds (34 km/h) today will help strip surface moisture, but the south-facing aspect receives limited benefit from a westerly wind direction, and max temperature of only 4.6°C severely limits evaporative drying — a full dry day tomorrow with southerly winds and 9°C would make a significant difference.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage from moisture; the concern here is purely friction and climber safety on damp surfaces.
Early April in the Lakes brings increasing daylight hours and improving sun angles, but temperatures remain cool and the prolonged Atlantic wet spell is typical of a Lake District spring — conditions are marginal and improving but not yet settled.
Contributing Factors
7
2.2mm fell today following 7.6mm yesterday and 24.5mm on April 3rd, meaning zero consecutive dry days and active surface moisture.
Nearly 300mm of rain in the last 28 days has saturated the ground, drainage lines, and seepage zones, meaning even non-porous rock faces will have water running across them.
34 km/h westerly winds today will strip surface moisture from exposed faces, though sheltered areas and cracks will retain dampness.
A maximum of only 4.6°C today significantly limits evaporative drying even with wind assistance.
The south/south-west aspect at only 170m makes Shepherd's one of the fastest-drying crags in Borrowdale, and increasing April sun angles help.
Humidity at 73% today and forecast to drop to 70% tomorrow suggests improving atmospheric drying conditions.
Tomorrow and Tuesday are forecast completely dry with southerly winds and temperatures up to 13°C, which should significantly improve conditions.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until tomorrow afternoon (April 6th) at the earliest — a full dry day with southerly winds and 9°C should bring exposed south-facing sections into condition, but check on arrival.
- Prioritise the main south-facing buttress and avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area, which will retain seepage and tree-drip moisture longest.
- If visiting early in the week, bring a towel for holds and be prepared to walk away from routes that show any dampness — the friction difference between dry and damp BVS rock is dramatic.
Do Not Climb
85%
10 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently wet and unsuitable for climbing. Heavy rain yesterday (24.5mm on April 3rd) followed by further rain today (5.0mm) means the rock surface will be damp and slippery, with seepage likely active after a very wet period totalling nearly 300mm in the last 28 days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage lines will almost certainly be running after 292mm of rain in the past 28 days, and these can take several dry days to subside even when the main faces appear dry.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be notably slower to dry than the main south-facing buttresses and should be avoided for longer after rain.
- Despite its reputation as one of the fastest-drying crags in Borrowdale, the sheer volume of recent rainfall means even the sunny south-facing walls need a proper dry spell to shed residual moisture.
- The rough BVS texture that gives outstanding friction when dry becomes deceptively slippery when damp — a particular hazard on the well-polished lower-grade classics like Little Chamonix and Adam.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb today — the BVS rock surface will be slippery and dangerous with active rainfall and recent heavy precipitation.
- Seepage lines on North Buttress may persist for several days even after the main faces appear dry.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from 5mm of rain today on top of 24.5mm yesterday, with 65.5mm in the last 7 days and nearly 300mm in the past month saturating the surrounding ground and feeding seepage.
Although the south-facing aspect and moderate wind exposure normally enable rapid drying, today's rain means zero consecutive dry days, and the strong southerly wind (45 km/h) is accompanied by ongoing precipitation, negating its drying benefit.
Rhyolite/BVS rock does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern — the risk is purely friction loss and climber safety on slippery surfaces.
Early April in the Lakes brings short drying windows, cool temperatures averaging only 6°C over the past week, and high humidity (83% average) — all of which slow surface drying significantly compared to summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
7
5.0mm today following 24.5mm yesterday means the rock is actively wet with no drying window.
292.5mm over 28 days has saturated the ground and hillside, feeding persistent seepage lines on the crag.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week significantly slows surface evaporation even during dry spells.
Average temperatures around 6°C provide limited solar heating to drive evaporation from the rock surface.
The S/SW aspect receives the best available solar radiation, which will accelerate drying once rain stops.
45 km/h southerly wind could aid drying but is currently accompanied by rain, so the benefit is negated.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, meaning surface drying can be rapid once a genuine dry window opens.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for at least one full dry day with wind and some sunshine before visiting — the earliest realistic window is April 6th.
- Even when the main south-facing walls appear dry, avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area which will retain seepage and dampness longer.
- Check BMC RAD for any bird nesting restrictions at Shepherd's Crag before visiting, as the peregrine nesting season is now underway.
Do Not Climb
90%
11 days ago
Shepherd's Crag received 20mm of rain today on top of nearly 60mm in the past week and 290mm over the last 28 days — the rock will be wet and slippery right now. Even though BVS rhyolite dries relatively quickly, there has been no dry window today to allow surface drying, and seepage from the saturated ground behind the crag is very likely.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The prolonged wet spell (290mm in 28 days) will have saturated the hillside above the crag, increasing the likelihood of persistent seepage on North Buttress and drainage lines across all buttresses.
- Brown Crag area, which is sheltered by tree cover, will be particularly slow to dry given today's rain and the overcast, humid conditions.
- The south-facing main buttresses will benefit from any sunshine and the forecast strong southerly winds tomorrow, but today's 20mm rain needs at least a full dry day with wind to clear surface moisture and reduce seepage.
- The short approach from the B5289 means climbers can easily make a quick assessment visit without committing — worth checking in person once a dry window materialises.
Warnings
2
- BVS rhyolite is dangerously slippery when wet — the textured surface that gives superb dry friction offers very poor grip when damp, increasing fall risk significantly.
- Persistent seepage is likely on North Buttress and drainage lines given the extreme antecedent rainfall; even when the surface appears dry, water may be running in cracks.
Reasoning
With 20mm of rain falling today and zero consecutive dry days, the rock surface will be thoroughly wet, with standing water in cracks and seepage lines active across the crag.
Despite the south-facing aspect and partial wind exposure, there has been no drying window today — the crag needs at least one full dry day with decent wind and ideally some sun to clear surface moisture after this volume of rain on already-saturated ground.
No structural risk to the non-porous BVS rhyolite, but the rough volcanic texture that provides excellent dry friction becomes dangerously slippery when wet, posing a significant fall risk.
Early April in the Lakes brings weak sun angles, short effective drying periods, and cool temperatures (averaging under 6°C this past week), all of which slow surface drying considerably compared to summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
20mm of precipitation today means the rock is currently wet with no drying opportunity.
Nearly 290mm over 28 days has thoroughly saturated the ground behind the crag, feeding seepage lines and drainage.
Humidity at 86% today inhibits evaporation and surface drying.
21.6 km/h SW winds provide some air movement but cannot dry the rock while rain is still falling.
The S/SW aspect will aid rapid drying once rain stops and any sun breaks through, but this benefit is irrelevant while it's actively raining.
At 170m, temperatures remain above freezing and the crag avoids the worst of upland weather, aiding future drying.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is wet and slippery after 20mm of rain on already-saturated ground.
- Monitor conditions from April 6th onwards when a dry window with sun and moderate wind is forecast, potentially allowing the main south-facing buttresses to come into condition.
- If visiting later this week, check North Buttress and Brown Crag areas last as these are slowest to dry; prioritise the open south-facing walls which dry fastest.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
12 days ago
Light rain fell yesterday evening (3.8mm) and the rock has had only an overnight period to dry with moderate southerly wind and dropping humidity (now 72%). The south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock mean surface drying should be well underway by midday, but with a very wet recent history (269mm in 28 days) there is a risk of residual dampness in sheltered areas — climbers should visually assess on arrival.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage lines are very likely to be active given the extremely wet month (269mm in 28 days), so avoid routes on North Buttress entirely.
- Brown Crag area dries slower due to tree cover and may still hold dampness from yesterday's rain even when the main south-facing walls appear dry.
- The south/south-west aspect is receiving direct solar input today with a southerly breeze at 16 km/h, which should help the main open faces dry by late morning.
- Heavy rain is forecast tomorrow (22.8mm) and the day after (13.6mm), so today may be the only viable window before another extended wet spell.
Warnings
2
- Check BMC RAD for bird nesting restrictions — peregrine nesting season is active (February–June) and restrictions may apply to some buttresses.
- Seepage-prone areas (North Buttress, vegetated gullies) should be avoided entirely given the saturated ground conditions this month.
Reasoning
Yesterday's 3.8mm of rain, falling mostly between 4pm and 7pm, will have wetted all surfaces, but the non-porous BVS rock sheds water quickly and the overnight period with moderate wind has allowed initial drying.
With a southerly aspect catching today's sun and a 16 km/h southerly breeze at 72% humidity, exposed faces should reach climbable dryness by late morning, though sheltered areas and seepage zones will lag significantly.
No structural risk to the non-porous volcanic rock from moisture; the concern is purely friction loss on damp surfaces, which can be severe on BVS rock despite its rough texture.
Early April in the Lakes means limited solar angle and warmth (max 7°C today), short effective drying windows, and the ground is thoroughly saturated from a very wet March — contributing to persistent seepage.
Contributing Factors
7
3.8mm fell mostly between 4–7pm yesterday, wetting all rock surfaces with limited drying time before nightfall.
Today is forecast dry (0.1mm trace) with 72% humidity and a southerly breeze, providing decent drying conditions for the south-facing crag.
The S/SW aspect will receive direct sunshine through the day, accelerating surface evaporation on the main open buttresses.
269mm over 28 days has saturated the ground and hillside, feeding persistent seepage lines and keeping sheltered areas damp.
Partial wind exposure with 16 km/h southerly wind aids surface drying, though the sheltered valley position limits airflow to some areas.
A maximum of only 7°C limits evaporation rates compared to summer conditions, slowing the drying process.
22.8mm forecast for tomorrow means any climbing window today is brief and conditions will deteriorate again imminently.
Recommendations
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- Target the main south-facing walls (e.g. Shepherd's Crag Buttress) from late morning onwards, avoiding North Buttress and Brown Crag where seepage and tree shade slow drying.
- Physically touch the rock surface before committing — BVS rock feels noticeably greasy when even slightly damp, so test friction on lower holds first.
- Be prepared to retreat if conditions aren't right; with heavy rain arriving tomorrow, today is a narrow window and conditions may not fully come in.
Climbing Outlook