Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Rain is falling today from mid-afternoon onwards after a 4-day dry spell, and the coming week brings a prolonged, heavy wet period with nearly 68mm forecast over the next 6 days. While there was a brief dry window this morning, conditions are now deteriorating and the crag will be wet through the rest of the day and into the foreseeable future.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Shepherd's Crag had a good 4-day drying window (Aug 22–25) after the heavy rain of Aug 19–20, but today's afternoon rain and the incoming week of wet weather will reset conditions entirely.
- North Buttress seepage is likely to be persistent given the 70mm+ rainfall over the past month and the heavy rain forecast for Aug 28–30.
- The Brown Crag area under tree cover will be especially slow to dry during the coming wet spell due to reduced airflow and drip from canopy.
- The south-facing aspect and short approach mean Shepherd's is one of the first crags to recover once dry weather returns — monitor conditions from Sep 1 onwards.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock becomes dangerously slippery when damp — do not attempt routes even if the surface appears only slightly wet, as the friction loss is dramatic.
- The incoming 34.6mm on Aug 28 may cause significant seepage across the crag, including on normally dry routes beyond just North Buttress.
Reasoning
The crag surface was likely dry this morning after four consecutive dry days (Aug 22–25), but rain arriving from 14:00 today (4.9mm total) will have wetted the rock by mid-afternoon.
The S/SW aspect and moderate wind exposure provided good drying during the Aug 22–25 window, but today's rain combined with 100% cloud cover and high humidity (86%+) means no meaningful drying will occur for the rest of the day.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet, but friction loss on damp surfaces is significant on these routes.
Late August in the Lakes often sees the onset of wetter Atlantic weather patterns; the incoming 68mm over the next week is consistent with a typical late-summer breakdown.
Contributing Factors
6
Around 4.9mm of rain is falling from mid-afternoon today, wetting the crag surface after a previously dry morning.
34.6mm forecast on Aug 28 alone, with a further 26.5mm over Aug 29–31, ensuring the crag will be thoroughly wet for most of the coming week.
Humidity is forecast at 86–94% for the next five days, severely limiting any surface drying between showers.
Four consecutive dry days (Aug 22–25) with dropping humidity allowed good surface drying before today's deterioration.
The south-facing orientation will aid rapid recovery once dry weather returns, but 100% cloud cover negates solar drying benefit currently.
Over 70mm in the past 28 days means ground saturation is high, increasing seepage risk even on non-porous rock.
Recommendations
3
- Do not plan climbing at Shepherd's Crag for the rest of this week — the heavy and sustained rainfall will keep the rock wet and slippery.
- Monitor the forecast for September 1 onwards, which shows a possible dry window; the south-facing aspect means the crag could come into condition quickly.
- If you had a dry morning window today (before 13:00), that was the last viable opportunity for several days — look for indoor alternatives until conditions improve.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
88%
57 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had three consecutive dry days following the wet spell of Aug 16–21, with today forecast completely dry, sunny, and with low humidity — ideal drying conditions on this south-facing, non-porous volcanic rock. The surface should be well dried and friction excellent for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress may still hold residual seepage from the 29mm of rain that fell Aug 19–20, even after three dry days — inspect before committing to routes there.
- Brown Crag area dries slower due to tree cover and may retain dampness in shaded corners despite the otherwise dry conditions.
- The south/south-west aspect has received strong solar radiation over the past two clear days (Aug 22–24), significantly accelerating surface drying on the main buttresses.
- A major wet spell is forecast from Aug 26 onwards (62mm over four days) — today and tomorrow represent the last reliable dry window for nearly a week.
Warnings
1
- A prolonged and heavy wet spell (62mm+) is forecast from Aug 26–29 — do not plan climbing from Wednesday onwards without checking updated forecasts.
Reasoning
Three consecutive dry days with falling humidity (down to 67% today) after the last significant rain on Aug 20 (10.5mm) mean surface moisture on the main south-facing buttresses should be fully evaporated.
The south/SW aspect and moderate wind exposure have provided strong drying conditions over Aug 22–24, with today's humidity dropping to 48–49% in the afternoon — more than sufficient to dry non-porous BVS rock.
No structural risk — Borrowdale Volcanic Series rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet; the only concern is friction loss on damp surfaces, which is not an issue today.
Mid-to-late summer conditions with adequate daylight hours for multi-pitch routes; no freeze-thaw concerns at 170m in August.
Contributing Factors
6
No precipitation since Aug 21 (0.5mm trace), giving ample time for non-porous rock surfaces to dry completely.
Humidity drops to 48–49% this afternoon with clear skies and SE breeze, providing excellent friction conditions.
The S/SW aspect has received strong direct sun over the past two days, accelerating evaporation of any residual surface moisture.
Nearly 29mm fell between Aug 19–20, which may sustain seepage on North Buttress and in sheltered areas despite good surface drying elsewhere.
Over 60mm is forecast from Aug 26–29, making today and tomorrow the last dry climbing window for several days.
Consistent 10–13 km/h winds today help evaporate any lingering surface moisture.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today or tomorrow to take advantage of the last dry window before heavy rain arrives from Wednesday.
- Avoid North Buttress seepage lines and inspect Brown Crag routes for dampness under tree cover before climbing.
- Carry a light waterproof for the approach in case conditions change, though today's forecast is entirely dry.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
58 days ago
After a wet spell ending August 20, Shepherd's Crag has had two full dry days plus today with good south-facing aspect for drying. The main faces should be largely dry, but residual dampness in sheltered areas is possible given the high recent humidity, and climbers should check conditions on arrival.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress may still hold seepage from the 23mm of rain received on August 19–20, as this area is known to weep after prolonged wet weather.
- The Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to overhead tree cover and may still harbour damp patches despite the sunny aspect elsewhere.
- The south/south-west facing main buttresses benefit from strong solar exposure and should be the driest sections of the crag today.
- A major rain event is forecast for August 27–28 (70+ mm combined), so the current dry window is narrow — plan accordingly.
Warnings
2
- Extreme rainfall of 70+ mm is forecast for August 27–28 — do not plan to climb on those days and be aware of potential flash flooding in Borrowdale.
- BVS rock becomes notably slippery when damp — if any section feels greasy, back off rather than risk a fall.
Reasoning
Two consecutive dry days following 23mm over August 19–20, with humidity averaging 78–79% — surface moisture on exposed south-facing rock should have largely evaporated, but sheltered and shaded sections may retain dampness.
The south/south-west aspect and moderate wind exposure favour relatively rapid surface drying on non-porous BVS rock; two dry days at mid-summer temperatures (15–16°C) with light-to-moderate wind should be sufficient for exposed faces, though not for persistent seepage zones.
No structural risk — Borrowdale Volcanic rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet; the concern is purely surface friction.
Mid-to-late summer provides long daylight hours and reasonable temperatures for drying, though the recent cool spell (avg 12°C) and high humidity (84%) have slowed evaporation compared to typical August conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
No rain since August 21 (0.5mm trace), giving the south-facing non-porous rock adequate time for surface drying on exposed faces.
12.8mm on Aug 19 and 10.5mm on Aug 20 soaked the crag thoroughly, and known seepage lines may still be active.
Average humidity of 84% over the past week slows evaporation and may leave a thin moisture film on shaded rock.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar radiation in summer, making Shepherd's one of the fastest-drying crags in Borrowdale.
Over 70mm of rain is forecast for August 27–28, meaning the current dry window is closing rapidly.
At 170m, the crag avoids cloud-base issues and benefits from warmer valley temperatures aiding drying.
Recommendations
3
- Prioritise the main south-facing buttresses (e.g. Little Chamonix, Adam, Eve) which will have dried fastest; avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area where seepage and tree shade slow drying.
- Check rock surfaces for dampness before committing — run your hand over the rock and test friction on lower holds first.
- Take advantage of the dry window tomorrow (Aug 24) as conditions are likely best before deteriorating weather arrives mid-week.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
62%
59 days ago
Shepherd's Crag received significant rain from Aug 16–20 (36mm over 5 days), but has had roughly 1.5 dry days with today showing 0mm precipitation. The south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock should allow main faces to be surface-dry, but sheltered areas and seepage lines may still be damp given the recent prolonged wet spell and high ambient humidity.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after prolonged wet spells — the 36mm over Aug 16–20 makes seepage likely there still.
- Brown Crag area dries slower due to tree cover and may retain dampness longer than the open south-facing buttresses.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) give Shepherd's the best drying profile in Borrowdale, meaning the main sunny faces will recover fastest.
- High recent humidity (averaging 85% over the last week) slows evaporative drying even on sun-facing rock.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — friction loss can be sudden and severe, especially on slabby routes like Brown Crag Wall.
- Seepage on North Buttress may persist for several more days given the volume of recent rain.
Reasoning
After 36mm of rain from Aug 16–20, only ~1.5 dry days have elapsed; while the non-porous rock won't be structurally affected, surface moisture and residual dampness in cracks, seepage lines, and sheltered areas is likely.
The south-facing aspect at 170m with moderate wind exposure should allow exposed faces to surface-dry within hours of rain stopping, but persistently high humidity (77–87%) has significantly slowed evaporative drying.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Mid-to-late August in the Lakes often brings unsettled Atlantic weather; daylight is adequate but shortening, and the recent pattern of frequent showers is typical for the season.
Contributing Factors
7
36.6mm fell in the last 7 days, with the heaviest falls (12.8mm and 10.5mm) on Aug 19–20, only two days ago.
Only ~1.5 consecutive dry days since the last significant rain, which is marginal for seepage zones and sheltered areas to fully dry.
The S/SW aspect receives strong solar radiation in summer, accelerating surface drying on the main buttresses.
Humidity has averaged 85% over the past week and remains at 77% today, slowing evaporative drying considerably.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture and seepage need to dry — no internal saturation concern.
At 170m with a short approach, the crag benefits from warmer valley temperatures and avoids cloud-base issues.
Partial wind exposure with 10.8 km/h NW breeze today aids surface drying across exposed faces.
Recommendations
3
- Visit the main south-facing buttresses first and physically check for dampness — open faces may be climbable while sheltered areas are not.
- Avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area, which are likely to retain seepage and tree-drip dampness from the recent prolonged wet spell.
- If surfaces feel greasy or friction is noticeably reduced, do not commit to harder routes — BVS rock loses grip dramatically when damp.
Do Not Climb
45%
60 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has received significant rainfall over the past few days (12.8mm on Aug 19, 10.5mm on Aug 20, and light rain today), with high humidity and modest temperatures limiting drying. While the south-facing BVS rock dries relatively quickly, the accumulated moisture from nearly 36mm in the last week means seepage-prone areas and tree-sheltered sections are likely still damp.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is known to hold seepage after prolonged wet spells, and the past week's 36mm of rain will likely keep these lines weeping for another day or two.
- The Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to overhanging tree cover that blocks direct sun and airflow — expect lingering dampness here even when the main buttress appears dry.
- The south/south-west aspect is favourable and will receive good afternoon sun tomorrow onward, which should accelerate surface drying on exposed faces.
- Borrowdale's sheltered valley position can trap humidity and reduce airflow at crag level despite the moderate wind readings recorded at more open stations.
Warnings
2
- The rough BVS texture can feel deceptively grippy on initial touch but loses friction dramatically on damp patches — test thoroughly before committing to any steep ground.
- Seepage on North Buttress after this much rain may persist for several days and could affect routes that are not obviously in the drainage line.
Reasoning
Heavy rain on Aug 19 (12.8mm) and Aug 20 (10.5mm), plus light drizzle today, means the rock surface and drainage lines have been thoroughly wetted with minimal drying opportunity.
Today's northerly light winds (11.5 km/h) and cool temperatures (13.6°C) with 81% humidity provide poor drying conditions; the south-facing aspect receives limited benefit from a northerly airflow, and meaningful drying has barely begun.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage, so the concern is purely surface friction and seepage.
Late August offers reasonable daylight hours and the crag's low altitude (170m) avoids alpine complications, but the recent cool spell with temperatures well below seasonal norms has slowed evaporation.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 23mm fell in the two days prior to today, thoroughly saturating drainage lines and surface features across the crag.
With light rain still falling today and only a few hours of partial drying possible, surface moisture is very likely to persist.
Humidity has averaged 85% over the past week, significantly slowing evaporation even on exposed surfaces.
The south/SW aspect will receive good solar radiation during any clear spells, helping the exposed faces dry faster than most Lake District crags.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so once surface moisture evaporates, friction returns quickly without needing extended internal drying.
Temperatures around 13–14°C are well below summer norms and reduce evaporation rates.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least until tomorrow afternoon (Aug 22) to allow a full dry day with lower humidity and NW breeze to clear surface moisture on the main buttresses.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area for at least two dry days, as seepage and tree shade will delay drying significantly.
- If visiting tomorrow, test friction carefully on lower holds before committing to routes — BVS rock is notoriously slippery when even slightly damp.
Do Not Climb
45%
61 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has received nearly 30mm of rain over the past week, including 12.9mm yesterday and 4mm today with showers through the morning; the rock is currently wet. A drying window opens this afternoon (14:00–18:00) with dropping humidity and moderate wind, but sustained drying time is insufficient for confidence, and further light rain is forecast for tomorrow.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be significantly slower to dry than the main south-facing buttresses and should be avoided after this prolonged wet spell.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after extended wet weather — with nearly 67mm in the last 28 days, seepage lines there are very likely active.
- The south/south-west aspect and short approach from the road mean the main face could see usable surface drying during this afternoon's brief clearing window, but only on the most exposed slabs.
- Borrowdale's sheltered valley position can trap humidity and reduce drying efficiency despite the favourable aspect — 84% average humidity over the past week is notable.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — the rough texture that gives superb dry friction becomes treacherous with even a thin film of moisture.
- Active seepage on North Buttress and shaded Brown Crag area is very likely given 67mm of rain in the past month.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from morning showers (3.2mm between 08:00–12:00) on top of 12.9mm yesterday and 5.1mm the day before, meaning surfaces are saturated and any seepage lines will be running.
A brief drying window from ~14:00–18:00 today with humidity dropping to 58% and moderate southerly wind at 14–16 km/h on a south-facing aspect could dry exposed surfaces, but only a few hours of drying after significant recent rainfall is marginal even for non-porous rock.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Mid-August in the Lakes with short, cool days (max ~15°C) and high background humidity means drying is slower than peak summer conditions despite adequate daylight hours.
Contributing Factors
7
Nearly 30mm in the past 7 days including 12.9mm on Aug 19 and 4mm today leaves the crag thoroughly wet with active drainage.
Over 3mm of rain fell between 08:00 and 12:00 today, re-wetting any surfaces that may have started to dry.
Humidity drops to 58% from 14:00–16:00 with moderate south wind and some cloud breaks, offering a narrow window for surface drying on exposed south-facing rock.
Average humidity of 84% over the past week impedes effective evaporation even during dry spells.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar gain during any afternoon clearing, helping exposed surfaces dry faster than other orientations.
1.5mm forecast for Aug 21 means any drying achieved today will be partially undone before the next proper dry window.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water so only surface moisture needs to evaporate, allowing faster recovery than porous rock types.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until August 22 or later when a sustained dry spell is forecast, allowing proper surface drying across the whole crag.
- If you must visit today, only consider the most exposed south-facing slabs after 15:00 and test friction carefully on easy ground before committing to anything harder.
- Avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area entirely — seepage and tree shade will keep these sections damp for days.
Do Not Climb
92%
62 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently soaked after 18.8mm of rain today with further showers continuing through the evening. The preceding week has been persistently wet (30mm in 7 days), and the rock will be thoroughly wet with no drying opportunity today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage lines will be running heavily after this prolonged wet spell and today's substantial rainfall, and may take several dry days to subside.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be particularly slow to dry even once the rain stops — expect damp conditions there a full day after the main crag dries.
- The south/south-west aspect is a significant advantage here and will accelerate drying once skies clear, but today's 100% cloud cover and ongoing rain negate this benefit entirely.
- The short approach from the road means climbers can easily check conditions and return quickly if the crag is still damp — worth a quick look from Aug 21 onwards.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is extremely slippery when wet — today's conditions create a serious fall risk on all routes.
- Seepage on North Buttress may persist for several days even after the main crag dries.
Reasoning
The rock is saturated on the surface after nearly 19mm of rain today on top of a very wet preceding week (30mm in 7 days), with showers forecast to continue through the evening and into overnight.
No meaningful drying has occurred or will occur today given continuous rainfall, 100% cloud cover, high humidity (88–98%), and light winds; the south-facing aspect cannot help without sun or dry air.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite faces no structural risk from water, but the rough crystalline texture that provides excellent dry friction becomes dangerously slippery when wet.
Mid-August is typically a good period for Lake District climbing, but this spell of unsettled weather with frequent fronts from the SW has kept conditions poor; the forecast suggests improvement from Aug 21.
Contributing Factors
6
18.8mm of rain today with showers continuing through the evening means the crag is thoroughly wet with no drying window.
Over 30mm in the past 7 days across multiple rain events has kept the rock consistently damp and seepage lines active.
Humidity has been 80–98% all day with 100% cloud cover, preventing any evaporative drying.
Four consecutive dry days forecast from Aug 21 with decreasing humidity should allow good drying on this south-facing crag.
2.7mm forecast for Aug 20 will reset any overnight drying progress.
The S/SW aspect will promote rapid drying once the rain stops and skies clear, potentially allowing climbing by the afternoon of Aug 21.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the crag is wet and conditions are dangerous on the slippery BVS rock.
- The earliest realistic opportunity is the afternoon of Aug 21 after a full dry day with sun; visually check the rock surface before committing.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag areas for an extra day beyond the main crag, as seepage and tree cover will delay drying.
Do Not Climb
85%
63 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently wet and unsuitable for climbing. Intermittent rain has fallen throughout today with 100% cloud cover preventing any solar drying, and further significant rain is forecast for the next two days before a potential drying window opens from August 21st.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The south-facing aspect that normally aids rapid drying is negated today by 100% cloud cover and persistent light showers throughout the day.
- North Buttress and the Brown Crag area (which is slower to dry due to tree cover) will be especially problematic given the cumulative 8mm over the past week with no meaningful dry spell.
- The sheltered valley position that usually protects from wind also reduces airflow-driven drying during overcast, humid conditions like today.
- Borrowdale's reputation as one of the wettest valleys in England means localised rainfall totals may exceed the recorded figures, particularly with SW flow funnelling moisture up the valley.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is extremely slippery when damp — do not be tempted to climb on apparently 'nearly dry' holds as friction loss is sudden and severe.
- Borrowdale valley can trap moisture and low cloud even when surrounding areas appear clearer; conditions at the crag may be worse than forecasts suggest.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet — 2.8mm of intermittent rain has fallen today across multiple hours, with humidity at 87% and no solar drying opportunity under 100% cloud cover.
Despite the south-facing aspect, zero sunshine today and persistent high humidity (77–95%) mean surface moisture has had no opportunity to evaporate; moderate westerly winds offer only marginal drying assistance.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite is not at risk of structural damage, but the rough crystalline texture that provides outstanding dry friction becomes notably slippery when damp — a significant safety concern.
Mid-August should offer good conditions, but the current unsettled spell with 45mm over the past 28 days and ongoing rain represents a poor weather window typical of Lake District summer variability.
Contributing Factors
6
Intermittent showers totalling 2.8mm have fallen across the day with further light precipitation forecast through the evening, keeping the rock surface wet.
Complete cloud cover all day eliminates solar radiation that the south-facing aspect would otherwise use to drive rapid surface drying.
Humidity averaging 87% today severely limits evaporative drying even where wind reaches the crag surface.
8mm in the past 7 days and 45mm over 28 days with no extended dry spell means seepage lines on North Buttress and tree-shaded Brown Crag will be persistently damp.
7.1mm forecast for August 19th followed by 4.3mm on August 20th will reset any drying progress and keep the crag wet through midweek.
Westerly winds of 15–18 km/h provide some airflow across the crag face but are insufficient to overcome the high humidity and active precipitation.
Recommendations
3
- Avoid climbing today and tomorrow — the rock is actively wet and further heavy rain is forecast.
- Target August 21st onwards as a potential window, but assess conditions on arrival as the crag will need time to shed residual moisture from 11mm+ of rain over the preceding two days.
- If visiting mid-week, favour the main south-facing buttresses which dry fastest and avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag where seepage and tree cover will delay drying.
Do Not Climb
85%
64 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently wet from today's rain (7.1mm total) with persistent drizzle and 100% cloud cover throughout the day, eliminating any meaningful drying. The forecast shows continued heavy rain over the next three days (33mm+), making conditions unsuitable for climbing today and for several days ahead.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage lines will be running freely given the cumulative 10mm+ over the past two days and continued rain forecast — avoid these areas entirely.
- The Brown Crag area, which is slower to dry due to tree cover, will remain damp longest once rain eventually stops.
- The south-facing main buttresses are normally quick to dry, but 100% cloud cover today and forecast cloud/rain through Aug 20 eliminates the solar advantage.
- The short approach from the road means climbers can return quickly if a future dry window opens, but no such window exists in the current forecast.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — even a thin film of moisture drastically reduces friction on what are normally superb holds.
- Heavy rain (21mm) forecast for Aug 20 will saturate seepage lines on North Buttress; these may take several dry days to stop weeping.
Reasoning
The rock is actively wet: 2.8mm fell yesterday, 7.1mm is falling today with drizzle persisting through the afternoon and heavier rain tonight (3.5mm at 22:00), and humidity has been 84–96% all day.
No meaningful drying has occurred or will occur today — 100% cloud cover eliminates solar radiation on the S/SW face, wind is negligible at 2–5 km/h, and intermittent drizzle keeps surfaces wet.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite is not at risk of structural damage from moisture, but the characteristic rough texture becomes notably slippery when damp, creating a serious friction-loss hazard.
Mid-August in Borrowdale is seeing a notably unsettled spell with 47mm over 28 days; the forecast 35.7mm over the next 6 days suggests no improvement until at least Aug 22.
Contributing Factors
6
7.1mm total today with drizzle throughout the afternoon and heavy rain forecast tonight, keeping rock surfaces actively wet.
Complete cloud cover eliminates the solar drying advantage of Shepherd's Crag's south-facing aspect.
Humidity at 84–96% throughout the day severely impedes surface evaporation even where rain pauses briefly.
Wind speeds of just 1–7 km/h at crag level provide almost no convective drying assistance.
4mm tomorrow, 8mm on Aug 19, and 21mm on Aug 20 mean no drying window for at least four days.
BVS rhyolite won't suffer structural damage, but friction loss when wet makes climbing hazardous regardless.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is wet and will remain so; plan alternative activities in Borrowdale.
- The earliest realistic window is August 22 after the heavy rain clears; monitor forecasts for confirmation of a dry day.
- If visiting on Aug 22, prioritise the main south-facing buttresses which dry fastest and avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag until they've had extended drying.
Do Not Climb
70%
65 days ago
Today has seen 1.5mm of rain with high humidity (86%), and the forecast shows a prolonged wet spell arriving tomorrow through Wednesday with nearly 30mm of rain expected. While the crag had an excellent dry spell from Aug 10–15, today's rain has broken that run and conditions will deteriorate significantly over the coming days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Shepherd's south-facing aspect and sheltered Borrowdale position make it one of the fastest-drying crags in the Lakes, but today's rain and high humidity will keep surfaces damp into the evening.
- North Buttress is prone to seepage after sustained wet weather — the recent unsettled pattern (nearly 39mm in 28 days) means seepage lines may already be active and will worsen with incoming rain.
- Brown Crag area dries slower due to tree cover and should be treated with extra caution even after the main face appears dry.
- The outstanding BVS friction that makes Shepherd's so popular becomes notably slippery when damp — even a thin film of moisture dramatically reduces grip on the crystalline surface.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock becomes dangerously slippery when damp — do not be tempted to climb on apparently 'nearly dry' surfaces as friction loss is sudden and severe.
- Prolonged wet weather through Aug 19 may reactivate seepage lines on North Buttress that could persist for several days after rain stops.
Reasoning
Today's 1.5mm of rain combined with 86% humidity means rock surfaces are currently damp, despite the preceding 5-day dry spell (Aug 10–15) that would have thoroughly dried the crag.
The south/SW aspect and moderate wind (14.8 km/h) would normally dry surface moisture within a few hours, but persistent high humidity (86%) and overcast conditions are significantly slowing evaporation today.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage from moisture — the concern is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-August in the Lakes is peak season but the current unsettled SW airflow is typical of Atlantic weather patterns that can persist for days, and the forecast confirms this with heavy rain expected through Aug 19.
Contributing Factors
5
1.5mm of rain today with 86% humidity means surfaces are currently damp and slow to dry.
No rain from Aug 10–15 with warm southerly winds (up to 25°C) would have thoroughly dried any deep seepage from the earlier wet period.
Nearly 30mm of rain is forecast from tomorrow through Aug 20, with the heaviest falls (13.7mm) on Aug 19, making conditions progressively worse.
The S/SW aspect and low altitude (170m) give Shepherd's above-average drying potential when the sun returns.
Humidity is forecast to remain above 88% through Aug 20, severely limiting evaporative drying between rain events.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — surfaces are damp from this morning's rain and friction will be compromised on the BVS rock.
- Avoid the crag entirely from Aug 17–20 as a significant wet spell is forecast with cumulative totals approaching 30mm.
- The first realistic window for climbing is Aug 21 or later — check conditions on arrival, particularly for seepage on North Buttress and dampness in the Brown Crag area.
Climbing Outlook