Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Shepherd's Crag has had 5 consecutive dry days following only light rain (5mm on Aug 9), with warm temperatures and good solar exposure on its south-facing aspect — the rock should be thoroughly dry today. Conditions will deteriorate significantly from Aug 17 onwards as a wet spell moves in.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress may still hold minor seepage from the unsettled period in late July/early August, though 5 dry days with southerly sun should have cleared most of it.
- Brown Crag area dries slower due to tree cover — check holds carefully in this section despite the otherwise dry spell.
- The south/south-west aspect has benefited from strong solar heating during the recent dry window, with temperatures reaching 25°C on Aug 12–13, accelerating drying.
- The forecast shows a significant wet spell arriving Aug 17–18 (nearly 20mm combined), so today and tomorrow represent the best window before conditions deteriorate.
Reasoning
Five consecutive dry days since the last rain (5mm on Aug 9), combined with warm temperatures up to 25°C and southerly winds, mean the non-porous BVS rock surface should be completely dry.
The south-facing aspect received excellent solar radiation during the dry spell (Aug 10–14), and moderate winds (10–18 km/h) provided good air circulation — more than sufficient to dry non-porous volcanic rock after a single 5mm rain event.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet; the only concern is friction loss on damp surfaces, which is not currently an issue.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long daylight hours and generally favourable drying conditions; the crag is at low altitude (170m) with no freeze-thaw concerns.
Contributing Factors
5
No measurable rain since Aug 9 (5mm), giving ample time for non-porous rock to shed all surface moisture.
Temperatures hit 25°C on Aug 12–13 with southerly winds directly onto this south-facing crag, maximising evaporation.
Only 5mm fell on Aug 9, a modest amount that non-porous rock sheds quickly.
Humidity has risen to 82% today with a westerly shift, but no rain is forecast and the rock is already dry.
Significant rain is forecast from Aug 17 (5.1mm) through Aug 18 (14.8mm), which will end the current dry window.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today or tomorrow to make the most of this dry window before the wet spell arrives on Aug 17.
- Inspect North Buttress and Brown Crag routes for localised seepage before committing, as these areas can retain moisture longer.
- Plan to avoid the crag from Aug 17–19 when significant rainfall is forecast; reassess conditions after Aug 19.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
92%
2 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is in excellent condition today after four consecutive dry days, warm temperatures up to 25°C, and favourable southerly sun — the south-facing BVS rock will be thoroughly dry. However, conditions deteriorate from tomorrow with an unsettled week ahead featuring frequent showers.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress may still carry minor residual seepage from the wet spell earlier this month (9.8mm on Aug 4, 5.6mm on Aug 5), though four dry days and warm sun should have cleared most of it.
- The Brown Crag area, being partially shaded by tree cover, may retain slightly more dampness in sheltered corners — worth a visual check before committing.
- The short roadside approach means climbers can maximise today's dry window and retreat quickly if conditions change tomorrow.
- Borrowdale's sheltered valley position and Shepherd's low altitude (170m) mean it benefits fully from today's warm, settled conditions with no altitude-related concerns.
Reasoning
Four consecutive dry days with temperatures reaching 25°C and moderate southerly winds have thoroughly dried the non-porous BVS rock surface after the last rain (5mm on Aug 9).
The south/south-west aspect has received strong solar radiation over the past three days (peaking at 25.2°C yesterday), and moderate winds have aided evaporation — more than sufficient drying time for non-porous volcanic rock.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening from moisture; there is no hold-breakage risk from recent rainfall.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long daylight hours and generally favourable temperatures, though the forecast shows an incoming unsettled spell typical of Lake District weather.
Contributing Factors
6
No precipitation since August 9, giving ample time for all surface moisture to evaporate from the non-porous rock.
Temperatures of 21–25°C over the last three days with southerly aspect maximising solar drying.
Hourly data shows zero precipitation all day with humidity dropping to 50% in the afternoon — ideal climbing conditions.
Southerly winds around 10–15 km/h provide gentle airflow across the south-facing crag aiding evaporation.
2.3mm forecast for August 14 marks the start of an unsettled week, so today represents the last good window for several days.
The period from late July through early August saw frequent rain totalling ~37mm over 28 days, but four dry days have been sufficient for this fast-drying crag.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today — this is the best window before an unsettled spell; aim for the afternoon when humidity is lowest (around 50%) and sun is on the crag.
- Visually check North Buttress and Brown Crag area for lingering seepage before committing to routes there.
- Plan to be off the crag before evening as humidity rises sharply after 19:00 and dew could form on the rock.
Likely Safe to Climb
90%
3 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had three consecutive dry days with warming temperatures and moderate southerly winds, following only light rainfall on August 9th (5mm). The south-facing BVS rock at low altitude should be thoroughly dry, offering excellent friction conditions today and tomorrow.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress may still harbour minor seepage from the unsettled period of late July/early August, even though the main south-facing walls will be dry.
- The Brown Crag area dries slower due to tree cover — check holds carefully there, especially on lower pitches shaded by canopy.
- The crag's short approach from the road makes it ideal for exploiting the good weather window today and tomorrow before conditions deteriorate from the 14th onwards.
- Borrowdale's valley position can funnel moist air and generate localised cloud/mist even on otherwise fine days — the 100% cloud cover forecast today may limit direct solar heating.
Reasoning
Three full dry days since the last rain (5mm on Aug 9), with two warm dry days (up to 24.4°C today) and moderate wind, meaning surface moisture on this non-porous south-facing rock will have fully evaporated.
The south/south-west aspect combined with moderate southerly winds (10–20 km/h) and temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 20s provides excellent drying; even sheltered areas should be dry after 72+ hours.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not absorb water or suffer structural weakening — no hold breakage risk from the recent wet period.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm temperatures are ideal; the preceding unsettled spell was typical of a Lake District summer but the current dry window is well established.
Contributing Factors
5
No precipitation since August 9th (5mm), giving over 72 hours of drying on non-porous rock that typically needs only hours to dry surface moisture.
Temperatures reaching 24°C with southerly winds directly hitting this south-facing crag accelerate surface evaporation.
Afternoon humidity forecast as low as 47% today, which is unusually dry for the Lakes and confirms excellent drying conditions.
Approximately 37mm fell over the past 28 days, but the non-porous rock type means this only affects seepage lines rather than the rock body itself.
Rain returns from Thursday with a significant system bringing nearly 27mm over Aug 14–17, closing the current dry window.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today or tomorrow (Aug 13) for the best conditions — the dry window closes from Thursday.
- Check North Buttress and Brown Crag for residual seepage before committing to routes in those areas.
- Be aware that conditions will deteriorate sharply from Saturday (Aug 16) with heavy rain and strong winds forecast — plan accordingly if staying in the area.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
5 days ago
Yesterday's 5mm rain and scattered light showers over the past two weeks have kept the crag periodically wet, but today is fully dry with decreasing humidity through the afternoon, and the south-facing BVS rock at Shepherd's Crag dries quickly. By mid-afternoon the main south-facing buttresses should be dry, though sheltered or seepage-prone areas may retain dampness.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is known to hold seepage after prolonged wet spells — the last two weeks have seen regular rainfall totalling ~22mm in the past 7 days, so expect persistent damp patches here.
- Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to tree cover and may still have damp patches even when the main open buttresses feel dry.
- The south/south-west aspect means afternoon sun (when it breaks through today's partial cloud) will hit the main faces directly, accelerating drying from midday onward.
- The short approach from the road allows climbers to easily check conditions and retreat without committing to a long walk-in if the rock is still damp.
Warnings
1
- Do not assume the entire crag is dry — seepage lines on North Buttress and shaded areas under trees at Brown Crag may still be damp despite the main faces appearing dry.
Reasoning
5mm fell yesterday (Aug 9) and 0.8mm and 0.6mm on the two days before that; the surface has had roughly 24 hours of drying with today's dry, clearing weather, but high overnight humidity (90%+) will have slowed evaporation.
Today's south-facing aspect with partial sun, dropping humidity (down to 57% by mid-afternoon), and light NW winds should dry exposed surfaces within a few hours of midday, though sheltered corners will lag.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous so there is no structural weakening concern; the risk is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions with reasonable daylight hours; the recent unsettled spell is typical of a Lake District August but the upcoming dry forecast from tomorrow looks very promising.
Contributing Factors
6
5mm fell on August 9 with only one dry day since, meaning surface moisture may linger in sheltered areas.
Today is completely dry with humidity dropping from 91% overnight to 57% by mid-afternoon, actively drying the rock.
The S/SW aspect receives direct afternoon sun which, combined with partial cloud breaks, will accelerate surface drying significantly.
Nearly 22mm in the past 7 days across multiple rain events means the ground and any seepage lines are well-charged with moisture.
Rhyolite does not absorb water so only surface moisture needs to evaporate, which happens quickly on exposed faces.
Winds are only 7–10 km/h today, providing less convective drying than the windier days forecast from tomorrow.
Recommendations
3
- Target the main south-facing buttresses from mid-afternoon onward (after 14:00) when humidity is lowest and sun exposure has had several hours to dry the rock.
- Avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area today as these are most likely to retain dampness from the recent wet spell.
- Touch-test the rock carefully before committing — BVS friction is excellent when dry but noticeably slippery when damp, and the difference can be subtle.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
62%
5 days ago
Today saw 4mm of rain and the rock will still be damp this evening; however, tomorrow (Aug 10) is forecast dry with moderate winds, and Shepherd's Crag's south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock should allow surface drying through the day. Given the recent unsettled spell with over 21mm in the past week and elevated humidity, climbers should visually confirm the rock is dry before committing.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The recent wet spell (21mm in 7 days across multiple events) may sustain seepage on North Buttress even though the main south-facing walls dry quickly.
- Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to tree cover and reduced direct sun — it may remain damp even when the main crag surfaces appear dry.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) mean the main walls will benefit fully from any afternoon sun tomorrow, making late-morning to afternoon the best window.
- Borrowdale's sheltered valley position can trap humid air, and with humidity around 75–83% recently, overnight condensation could re-dampen surfaces even without rain.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on any visibly damp surfaces — BVS rock loses friction dramatically when wet, creating a serious slip hazard on the steep terrain.
- The recent saturated spell means seepage could appear unexpectedly on routes that are normally dry; back off if water is weeping from cracks.
Reasoning
Today's 4mm of rain on top of a persistently unsettled week (21mm total) means surfaces are currently wet, though the non-porous BVS rock holds no internal moisture.
Tomorrow's dry forecast with moderate NW winds (10 km/h) and south-facing aspect should allow surface drying within a few hours of morning sun, but the relatively high ambient humidity (75%) may slow evaporation.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet; the concern is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions with reasonable daylight hours and temperatures around 16–17°C are adequate for drying, though the recent spell has been cooler and wetter than average for August.
Contributing Factors
6
Fresh rain today means all surfaces are currently wet and need a full drying cycle before climbing.
No precipitation forecast for Aug 10, giving the crag a full day to dry with south-facing sun exposure.
Humidity has averaged 79% over the past week, which slows evaporation and may cause overnight condensation.
The volcanic rock does not absorb water, so only surface moisture needs to evaporate — typically hours rather than days.
Over 21mm across multiple rain events in the past 7 days means the surrounding ground and seepage sources are saturated.
Shepherd's Crag is one of the fastest-drying crags in Borrowdale, benefiting from direct sun and moderate wind exposure.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until late morning or early afternoon on Aug 10 to allow full surface drying after today's rain, and visually check for damp patches before climbing.
- Avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area, which are likely to retain seepage and dampness longer than the main south-facing walls.
- Carry a towel and check friction on lower holds before committing to harder routes — BVS rock is noticeably slippery when even slightly damp.
Do Not Climb
45%
6 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has had a persistently wet period with rain on 6 of the last 7 days (17.1mm), and today is only the first dry day. While the south-facing BVS rock dries quickly in good conditions, humidity remains high at 72% and a further 10.5mm of rain is forecast for tomorrow, making current conditions marginal and the near-term outlook poor.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage lines are very likely active given the prolonged wet spell over the past week — avoid routes in this area.
- The Brown Crag area, shaded by tree cover, will be noticeably slower to dry and may still have damp patches despite the south-facing aspect.
- The short approach from the road allows climbers to easily check conditions and retreat if the rock is still damp — worth the quick walk in.
- Borrowdale's sheltered valley position can trap humidity even on nominally dry days, slowing surface drying despite the sunny aspect.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock becomes noticeably slippery when damp — friction loss is the primary hazard; do not trust holds that feel even slightly moist.
- 10.5mm of rain forecast for tomorrow (August 9) will reset drying progress and likely re-activate seepage lines.
Reasoning
With rain on 6 of the last 7 days totalling 17.1mm and only one dry day so far, the rock surface is likely still carrying residual moisture, particularly in sheltered or shaded sections.
The south/SW aspect and moderate wind (20 km/h from the S today) provide reasonable drying potential, but a single dry day at 72% humidity is insufficient to fully dry the crag after such a prolonged wet spell — especially tree-shaded areas and seepage zones.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not absorb water so there is no structural or hold-breakage risk — the concern is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions should favour drying, but August 2026 has been notably unsettled with below-average temperatures (14.3°C average over the past week), limiting evaporative drying potential.
Contributing Factors
6
Rain fell on 6 of the last 7 days (17.1mm total), with the heaviest falls on August 4–5 (15.4mm combined), saturating the crag environment.
Today is the first rain-free day, which is marginal drying time even for quick-drying non-porous rock, especially with 72% humidity.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar radiation in summer, helping surface moisture evaporate faster than at north-facing venues.
Humidity has averaged 78% over the past week and sits at 72% today, significantly slowing evaporative drying.
10.5mm of rain is forecast for August 9, which will re-wet any surfaces that have begun to dry and extend the drying timeline.
A 20 km/h southerly wind today provides some airflow across the south-facing rock, aiding surface drying.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least until August 11–12 when a drier, warmer window is forecast to allow proper drying after tomorrow's heavy rain.
- If visiting today, stick to the most exposed south-facing buttresses and visually check friction by testing holds before committing — retreat if any dampness is felt.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area entirely until at least two consecutive warm dry days have passed.
Do Not Climb
35%
7 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has seen a prolonged unsettled spell with 18mm of rain over the past week, including significant rain on Aug 4–5 and light rain today (Aug 7), leaving zero consecutive dry days. While the south-facing BVS rock dries quickly in good conditions, the persistent moisture, high humidity (~79%), and lack of any sustained dry spell mean surfaces are likely still damp in places.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to seepage after prolonged wet weather like this 10-day wet spell, and will likely still be weeping.
- The Brown Crag area's tree cover will have slowed drying considerably during this overcast, humid period.
- The south/south-west aspect is a major advantage here — any sunny breaks will accelerate surface drying on the main buttresses significantly.
- The short approach from the road means climbers can easily check conditions and retreat without committing to a long walk-in.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — surface may appear dry but retain a thin moisture film that dramatically reduces friction on slab and friction-dependent routes.
- Further significant rain is forecast for Aug 9–10 (over 10mm combined), which will reset any drying progress.
Reasoning
With 0.9mm of rain today, 0.8mm yesterday, and significant rain on Aug 4–5 (15.4mm combined), the rock surface is almost certainly damp in many areas despite the non-porous nature of the BVS rock.
The south-facing aspect and moderate wind exposure would normally dry this crag quickly, but persistently high humidity (79% average), overcast conditions, and repeated light rain have prevented any meaningful drying window over the past several days.
Non-porous Borrowdale Volcanic rock does not absorb water or suffer structural damage when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Mid-summer conditions should favour rapid drying once the weather breaks, but the current unsettled spell with below-average temperatures (~14–15°C) is limiting evaporation rates.
Contributing Factors
7
0.9mm recorded today means the rock surface has been freshly wetted and has had no opportunity to dry.
18mm over the past 7 days across multiple rain events has kept the crag persistently damp with no sustained drying window.
Average humidity of 79% over the past week significantly slows evaporation even on non-porous rock.
The south/south-west aspect maximises solar gain and will accelerate surface drying once the rain stops and any sun breaks through.
Water sits on the surface rather than soaking in, meaning the crag can dry within hours once conditions allow — but friction is poor until fully dry.
Partial wind exposure with 15–16 km/h winds from the SW provides some airflow to aid surface drying.
Temperatures around 14–15°C are below the summer average for Borrowdale, reducing evaporation rates.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for a full dry day before climbing — tomorrow (Aug 8) looks marginally better but check the surface carefully, especially on North Buttress and Brown Crag.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area entirely until at least two consecutive dry days have passed, as these are prone to lingering seepage and slower drying.
- The best window in the 5-day outlook is Aug 11–12 after two forecast dry days with warmer temperatures — plan sessions for then if possible.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
9 days ago
After a prolonged unsettled spell with 23mm in the last 7 days and rain again this morning, Shepherd's Crag is likely still damp but a dry afternoon window with dropping humidity and moderate wind may allow the south-facing surfaces to dry sufficiently by mid-afternoon. Climbers should visually and physically check the rock before committing, particularly on shaded or tree-covered sections.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to seepage after prolonged wet weather — with over 20mm in the past week this area is very likely to be weeping and should be avoided.
- The Brown Crag area dries slower due to overhead tree cover and may remain damp even when main buttresses appear dry.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude mean the main open faces benefit strongly from any afternoon sun breaks, making them the best bet for dry rock today.
- Borrowdale's sheltered valley position can trap humid air despite wind, so high ambient humidity (80%+ average this week) may slow surface drying even on non-porous rock.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock offers outstanding friction when dry but becomes dangerously slippery when damp — do not assume the rock is dry just because it has stopped raining.
- Seepage on North Buttress after prolonged wet weather can persist for days; avoid this area entirely.
Reasoning
Rain fell this morning (2.7mm total today, mostly before 07:00) on top of a very wet week (23mm in 7 days), so rock surfaces are currently wet with possible residual seepage on north-facing sections.
The afternoon looks dry with humidity dropping to ~66% and moderate westerly winds around 16–18 km/h on a south-facing aspect, giving reasonable drying conditions — non-porous BVS rock could shed surface moisture within a few hours of the last rain.
Non-porous Borrowdale Volcanic rock does not absorb water or suffer structural weakening, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Mid-summer provides long daylight hours and reasonable solar angle even through broken cloud, but the current unsettled Atlantic pattern with persistent SW airflow is keeping temperatures below average and humidity high.
Contributing Factors
7
Around 2.7mm fell mostly between 02:00 and 06:00 this morning, leaving rock surfaces wet going into the day.
Over 23mm in the past 7 days across multiple rain events has saturated surrounding ground and maintained seepage lines.
No precipitation is forecast from midday through the evening, giving 6+ hours of dry conditions for surface drying.
The S/SW orientation maximises solar input even through broken cloud, accelerating evaporation on main buttresses.
Winds of 15–18 km/h from the west provide reasonable airflow to aid surface drying.
Humidity has averaged 80% over the past week and remains 66–70% this afternoon, slowing evaporation rates.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water so only surface moisture needs to evaporate, allowing faster return to climbable conditions.
Recommendations
3
- If climbing today, wait until mid-to-late afternoon (after 14:00–15:00) and physically touch-test the rock on open south-facing routes before committing.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area entirely — these are likely to be seeping or damp given the prolonged wet spell.
- Carry a towel and be prepared to retreat if friction feels compromised; the BVS texture becomes noticeably slippery when even slightly damp.
Do Not Climb
70%
11 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has been through a prolonged unsettled spell with frequent light rain over the past 10 days, and today has seen significant rainfall (9.3mm) including a heavy 5.1mm burst at 14:00; although a dry window appears from 15:00 onwards, the rock will be wet and humidity remains very high. Tomorrow brings 24.9mm of heavy rain, making conditions clearly unsuitable for the immediate future.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is likely to have active seepage given the cumulative ~17mm over the past week and today's heavy rain, and this will persist for days.
- The Brown Crag area, being partially shaded by tree cover, will be slowest to dry and should be avoided first even when main buttresses appear dry.
- The south-facing aspect and partial wind exposure are assets, but with 100% cloud cover and high humidity (85–93%) today, solar drying is effectively nil.
- Tomorrow's forecast of nearly 25mm will completely reset any drying progress; realistic drying cannot begin until the 7th at the earliest.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is extremely slippery when damp — even a thin film of moisture dramatically reduces friction on the slab routes that Shepherd's Crag is known for.
- Active seepage on North Buttress is likely for several days following this wet spell; avoid this area even when the main crag appears dry.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from intermittent rain throughout today totalling 9.3mm, with the heaviest burst (5.1mm) at 14:00, and high ambient humidity (85–93%) preventing effective surface evaporation.
Despite the south-facing aspect, 100% cloud cover and humidity above 85% mean negligible drying today; the moderate SW wind (~16–19 km/h) helps but cannot compensate for the lack of solar radiation and ongoing moisture.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous so there is no structural damage risk, but the rough crystalline texture that gives superb dry friction becomes treacherously slippery when wet — a significant safety concern on the slab-heavy routes here.
Mid-summer should offer the best drying conditions, but this August spell is unusually wet and cool (14–18°C), with the forecast showing no sustained dry period until potentially the 10th.
Contributing Factors
7
9.3mm total today including a 5.1mm deluge at 14:00 has left the rock surface thoroughly wet.
Roughly 17mm over the past 7 days with no consecutive dry days means the crag environment is saturated and seepage lines are active.
Humidity has been 85–93% throughout today with 100% cloud cover, severely limiting evaporative drying.
24.9mm forecast for August 5th will completely re-soak any surfaces that might begin to dry this evening.
The S/SW aspect is an asset for drying, but only when cloud breaks allow solar radiation — not the case today or tomorrow.
Winds of 16–19 km/h from SW provide some airflow for surface drying, partially offsetting the high humidity.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so once rain stops and the surface dries, the rock is structurally sound.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or tomorrow — the rock is wet and tomorrow's 25mm will make conditions worse.
- The earliest realistic window is August 7th if the dry forecast holds; check for residual seepage on North Buttress and dampness in the Brown Crag area before committing.
- If visiting on the 7th, focus on the most exposed south-facing sections of the main buttress which will dry fastest, and carry a towel to test holds for residual moisture.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
65%
12 days ago
Light intermittent rain this morning should clear by late morning, with a warm, sunny, and breezy afternoon offering a good drying window on this south-facing crag. However, the preceding week has been persistently damp and heavy rain is forecast from tomorrow, so today's afternoon window is likely the last viable opportunity for several days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The south/south-west aspect and SE breeze today will provide direct solar heating and airflow across the face from midday, accelerating surface drying on the main buttresses.
- North Buttress is known to hold seepage after prolonged wet spells — the last week has brought ~10mm of scattered rain with high humidity, so seepage lines there may still be active.
- The Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to tree cover and may retain dampness from the morning's light showers even when the main face feels dry.
- A major wet spell (40–50mm) is forecast from tomorrow through Aug 6, meaning today's afternoon window is effectively the last climbing opportunity for at least 4–5 days.
Warnings
2
- Heavy rain (40+ mm) is forecast Aug 4–6; do not rely on a quick drying window during this period.
- BVS rock offers superb friction when dry but becomes notably slippery when damp — if holds feel greasy, back off immediately.
Reasoning
The rock received ~1mm of scattered light rain overnight and this morning, on top of a week that has seen ~10.6mm of intermittent precipitation with high humidity (avg 80%), so while not saturated, the surface is likely damp in sheltered areas.
From midday today, strong sunshine (cloud clearing to near 0%), temperatures reaching 23°C, humidity dropping to 45%, and a moderate SE breeze at 15–18 km/h on a south-facing aspect should dry surface moisture within 2–3 hours on exposed faces.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not absorb water or suffer structural weakening — no hold breakage risk, but friction is significantly reduced when damp.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm temperatures are favourable; the crag's low altitude (170m) avoids any alpine complications.
Contributing Factors
5
Scattered light showers totalling ~0.8mm fell between midnight and 08:00, wetting the rock surface.
Clear skies, 23°C, humidity dropping to 45%, and moderate SE wind from midday should dry the south-facing surface within a few hours.
Around 10.6mm of rain over the past 7 days with average 80% humidity means the crag hasn't had a sustained dry-out period and sheltered areas may still be damp.
The S/SW aspect at 170m receives excellent solar radiation and avoids altitude-related drying penalties, making it one of the fastest-drying crags in Borrowdale.
18mm forecast for Aug 4 with 91% humidity, followed by further heavy rain on Aug 5–6, will make the crag wet for several days.
Recommendations
3
- Target the afternoon from approximately 13:00–18:00 today for the best conditions, allowing the morning rain to dry off the south-facing rock.
- Visually check and touch-test holds before committing — avoid North Buttress and tree-shaded Brown Crag area where seepage and dampness are most likely to linger.
- Do not plan any climbing from Aug 4–7 given the heavy rainfall forecast; reassess from Aug 8 onward depending on how the weather evolves.
Climbing Outlook