Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
After a very wet period (nearly 200mm in 28 days), Shepherd's Crag has had two dry days (June 14–15) and a mostly dry morning today, but high humidity, full cloud cover, and light rain returning this afternoon limit drying. The south-facing aspect and non-porous BVS rock mean the main faces may have surface-dried enough for a midday window, but seepage-prone areas and sheltered sections will still be damp.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The prolonged wet spell from early June (over 170mm between June 1–11) will have saturated the ground and hillside above the crag, feeding seepage lines on North Buttress that can persist for days after heavy rain.
- Brown Crag area is partially shaded by tree cover and will be noticeably slower to dry than the open south-facing buttresses — expect lingering dampness there.
- The two genuinely dry days (June 14–15) with moderate temperatures and some breeze will have dried exposed south-facing surfaces, but 100% cloud cover today severely limits solar drying.
- Today offers a narrow potential window roughly 11:00–15:00 on the most exposed south-facing routes before light rain returns in the late afternoon and evening.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when even slightly damp — friction loss is sudden and severe, particularly on slab routes like Brown Crag Wall.
- Heavy rain forecast for June 18–19 (37mm+) will fully reset drying and recharge seepage; do not assume improving conditions this week.
Reasoning
After an exceptionally wet fortnight, two dry days (14th–15th) allowed surface drying on exposed faces, but today's high humidity (80–95%) and full cloud cover mean residual dampness likely persists in sheltered areas and seepage zones.
The south/south-west aspect would normally dry this non-porous rock quickly, but persistent cloud cover today and humidity above 80% are significantly slowing evaporation despite moderate southerly winds.
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet — the risk is purely friction loss on damp surfaces, not hold breakage.
Mid-June should be prime season, but this has been an unusually wet period; the saturated ground above the crag will continue feeding seepage lines for several days even after rain stops.
Contributing Factors
6
Nearly 200mm of rain in 28 days, with major deluges on June 3–4 (76mm) and June 7–9 (64mm), has thoroughly saturated the hillside and recharged all seepage lines.
June 14–15 were dry with moderate temperatures (15–16°C) and light-to-moderate wind, allowing exposed south-facing surfaces to begin drying.
Humidity has averaged 81% over the past week and is 87% today, significantly slowing surface evaporation even on sun-facing rock.
100% cloud cover for most of today eliminates direct solar heating on the south-facing aspect, removing the crag's main drying advantage.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so surface moisture is the only concern — once the surface dries, friction returns to normal.
Light rain returns this evening and tomorrow, with heavy rain (20mm+) forecast for June 18–19, meaning conditions will deteriorate before they improve.
Recommendations
3
- If climbing today, target the most exposed south-facing buttresses during the 11:00–15:00 dry window and physically test friction on lower holds before committing to routes.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area entirely as seepage and tree-shaded dampness will persist after this prolonged wet spell.
- Consider postponing to June 22 or later, when the forecast shows the first properly dry day after the incoming rain system passes.
Previous Analyses
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
2 days ago
After an extremely wet fortnight (nearly 192mm in 28 days), Shepherd's Crag has had roughly 2 dry days since the last significant rain on June 11. Today is mostly dry with a window through the afternoon, but persistent high humidity and overcast skies are limiting drying, and rain returns tomorrow — assess the rock surface carefully before committing.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is likely still seeping given the prolonged heavy rainfall over the past two weeks — avoid routes in that area.
- The Brown Crag area dries slower due to tree cover and will likely still hold residual dampness even if the main south-facing buttresses feel dry.
- The south/south-west aspect is working in the crag's favour today but 100% cloud cover is severely limiting solar drying benefit.
- Despite nearly 192mm in 28 days, the non-porous BVS rock sheds surface water quickly — the main open faces may have dried sufficiently by mid-afternoon if humidity drops as forecast.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — even a thin film of moisture drastically reduces friction, so do not trust visual dryness alone; touch-test holds before committing to moves.
- Rain is forecast from 19:00 today (0.2mm) — plan to be off the crag before early evening.
Reasoning
The last significant rainfall was 12.3mm on June 11, followed by trace amounts (0.2mm on June 12, 0.5mm on June 13) and then two essentially dry days — surface moisture on the main south-facing buttresses should have largely evaporated, but seepage zones and shaded areas will still be damp.
Two dry days with moderate wind (12–25 km/h) and the south-facing aspect provide reasonable drying, but persistent high humidity (74–81%) and heavy cloud cover today are significantly slowing evaporation compared to what this crag can achieve in sunny conditions.
Rhyolite/BVS rock is non-porous so there is no risk of structural weakening or hold breakage from the prolonged wet spell — the concern is purely surface friction.
Mid-June should be peak season but the unusually wet and cool pattern (average 10.7°C over the past week) has kept conditions well below typical summer standards, and the forecast shows more rain incoming from tomorrow.
Contributing Factors
7
Nearly 192mm over 28 days with 37mm in the last week alone has kept the crag and surrounding ground saturated, feeding seepage lines and maintaining high ambient moisture.
June 14 and most of June 15 have been dry, giving the non-porous rock surface time to shed water on exposed faces.
Humidity averaging 80% over the past week and 64–75% through today's climbing hours slows surface evaporation significantly.
Near-100% cloud cover all day prevents direct solar radiation from reaching the south-facing rock, negating much of the aspect advantage.
A light SE breeze of 12–16 km/h through the afternoon assists surface drying on exposed buttresses.
The volcanic rock does not absorb water internally, so surface drying is all that is needed for safe friction on open faces.
5mm forecast for June 16 with continued rain through to June 20, making today potentially the only viable window for nearly a week.
Recommendations
3
- If climbing today, target the main south-facing buttresses (Little Chamonix area, Adam/Eve) during the afternoon window (12:00–18:00) when drying is most advanced, and physically test friction on a low hold before committing.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area entirely — seepage and tree shade will keep these damp after the recent prolonged wet spell.
- Carry a towel and be prepared to retreat if any dampness is felt on the rock surface, as BVS friction drops dramatically when wet.
Do Not Climb
45%
3 days ago
Despite today being dry, the crag has endured an exceptionally wet period with nearly 192mm in the last 28 days and 65.6mm in the past week alone, with heavy rain as recently as June 11 (12.3mm). Only 1.5 truly dry days have elapsed since significant rainfall, and while the non-porous BVS rock won't be structurally damaged, seepage lines and shaded areas are very likely still wet, making friction unreliable across much of the crag.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after prolonged wet spells — with nearly 192mm in 28 days, seepage here is almost certain to be active.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be significantly slower to dry and likely still damp in shaded sections.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude are working in the crag's favour, but the sheer volume of recent rain overwhelms the normally fast drying characteristics.
- The forecast shows further rain arriving from tomorrow onward, so today represents a narrow and possibly insufficient drying window before conditions deteriorate again.
Warnings
2
- BVS rock becomes notably slippery when damp — do not commit to moves above gear on any section that feels greasy or shows moisture.
- The ground and approach paths will be very muddy after weeks of heavy rain; take care on the descent path.
Reasoning
With 12.3mm on June 11, 0.2mm on June 12, 0.5mm on June 13, and only today (June 14) fully dry, surface moisture may have cleared on the most exposed south-facing sections but seepage-fed areas and sheltered zones will still be damp.
The south-facing aspect and moderate 13 km/h NW wind today aid surface drying, but only ~1.5 effective drying days after weeks of saturation is insufficient to clear all moisture from seepage lines and tree-shaded rock.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Early June in the Lakes should offer lengthening days and reasonable temperatures for drying, but the current spell has been unusually wet and cool (averaging only 10.5°C over the past week), limiting evaporation rates.
Contributing Factors
7
Nearly 192mm over 28 days with multiple heavy events (43mm on June 4, 33mm on June 3, 29mm on June 8) has thoroughly saturated the ground and seepage systems feeding the crag.
12.3mm fell on June 11 with light rain on June 12–13, giving only about 1.5 effective dry days — insufficient for seepage and shaded areas to clear.
Average humidity of 81% over the past week significantly slows evaporation and surface drying.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar exposure in June, helping exposed surfaces dry faster than north-facing alternatives.
At 170m, the crag avoids cloud-base immersion and benefits from warmer valley temperatures compared to higher mountain crags.
Today is forecast dry with 15.9°C and lower humidity (74%), providing a useful drying contribution to exposed surfaces.
Light rain (2mm) is forecast for tomorrow, followed by heavier rain on June 17–18 (8mm and 12.5mm), preventing any extended drying window.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for a longer dry spell — the rock needs at least 2–3 consecutive warm dry days after this prolonged wet period before conditions can be trusted.
- If visiting today, limit yourself to the most exposed south-facing routes on the main buttress and be prepared to back off if any dampness is found on the rock surface.
- Avoid North Buttress and the Brown Crag area entirely, as seepage and tree-shaded dampness will persist far longer than exposed sections.
Do Not Climb
35%
4 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has been subjected to an exceptionally prolonged wet spell — over 190mm in the last 28 days with 85mm in the past week alone — and today has seen further light rain with high humidity. Despite the crag's favourable south-facing aspect and fast-drying volcanic rock, there has been virtually no meaningful dry window to allow the surface and seepage lines to clear, so conditions are almost certainly damp.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after prolonged wet weather, and this extended rain spell means seepage is very likely active across multiple areas of the crag.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be significantly slower to dry than the main south-facing buttresses and should be assumed wet.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude are strong advantages — once a genuine dry window opens, the main face could come into condition within a day of sunshine and breeze.
- Borrowdale is one of the wettest valleys in England; nearly 200mm in 28 days reflects a sustained Atlantic weather pattern that keeps ambient humidity high and suppresses drying even on rain-free hours.
Warnings
3
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — friction loss is sudden and severe, creating a significant fall risk on slab and friction-dependent routes.
- Active seepage on North Buttress is highly likely given the sustained rainfall; treat these routes as out of condition.
- Do not be deceived by a surface that looks dry — sheltered cracks and hollows may retain dampness that only becomes apparent mid-route.
Reasoning
With 85mm in the last 7 days, rain on 6 of the last 7 days, and zero consecutive dry days, the rock surface is almost certainly wet or damp across most of the crag, with active seepage on North Buttress and tree-sheltered areas.
Despite the south-facing aspect and moderate wind, sustained high humidity (83% average over the past week) and near-continuous rainfall have prevented any meaningful drying — the brief gaps between showers are insufficient to dry the surface fully.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Early June should offer lengthening days and improving conditions, but this year's persistent Atlantic fronts have kept the crag in poor condition well into what is normally the prime season.
Contributing Factors
6
85mm in the last 7 days with rain on 6 of 7 days leaves the crag saturated and seepage lines running.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week severely inhibits evaporative drying even during rain-free hours.
There has been no meaningful dry window — today itself has 1.2mm of rain, preventing any drying reset.
The south/south-west aspect and 170m altitude mean the crag will respond quickly once a genuine dry spell arrives.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so surface drying can be rapid given the right conditions — no need for extended deep-drying.
1.2mm today with 79% humidity and 25 km/h westerly wind means the surface remains damp through the day.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for the forecast dry window on June 14–15 before considering a visit, and visually assess the rock surface carefully on arrival.
- Avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area entirely until at least two consecutive dry days with low humidity have passed.
- If visiting on June 14–15, target the most exposed south-facing sections of the main crag where sun and wind will dry the surface first, and be prepared to walk away if damp patches remain.
Do Not Climb
40%
5 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has been subjected to a prolonged and heavy wet spell — nearly 190mm over 28 days with 87mm in the last week alone, including heavy falls on June 3–4 (76mm), June 7–9 (64mm), and June 11 (12mm). Today still recorded 0.8mm with high humidity. Despite the crag's excellent drying characteristics, the sheer volume of recent rain means seepage and residual dampness are very likely, and we recommend waiting for a proper drying window.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is prone to persistent seepage after prolonged wet weather — given nearly 190mm in the last month, seepage lines here could take several dry days to clear.
- The Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to overhead tree cover, which blocks direct sun and traps humidity; expect this sector to remain damp longest.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) are significant advantages — once a genuine dry spell arrives, the main open buttresses will dry within hours of the last rain.
- Borrowdale is one of the wettest valleys in England; the surrounding fells funnel drainage and maintain high local humidity even on nominally dry days, prolonging surface dampness after extended wet periods.
Warnings
2
- The BVS rock texture becomes notably slippery when damp — surface moisture may not be obvious on the rough texture but friction loss can be dramatic and sudden.
- Seepage from saturated ground above the crag may persist for days after rain stops; check for wet streaks before committing to routes.
Reasoning
With 87mm in the last 7 days, no consecutive dry days, 0.8mm today, and humidity at 80%, the rock surface is almost certainly still damp, and deeper seepage lines will be actively running.
Although the south-facing aspect and moderate wind exposure normally allow rapid drying, the sustained saturation of the surrounding ground and vegetation means humidity remains high and evaporation is slow — a single dry day is insufficient after this volume of rain.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern; the risk is purely friction-related.
Early June should offer long days and reasonable temperatures for drying, but the current spell has been unusually wet and cool (average 10.6°C over 7 days), limiting the drying benefit of the season.
Contributing Factors
7
Nearly 87mm in the last 7 days and 190mm over 28 days represents exceptional saturation, with major falls on June 3–4, 7–9, and 11.
There have been zero consecutive dry days heading into today, with 0.8mm recorded today and further trace amounts forecast tomorrow.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week significantly slows surface evaporation even on days without rain.
Average temperatures of just 10.6°C over the last week provide limited evaporative energy compared to typical summer conditions.
The S/SW aspect maximises solar exposure and will accelerate drying once a genuine dry window opens.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so once surface moisture and seepage cease, the rock returns to full friction quickly.
June 14 is forecast dry with 0mm rain, dropping humidity, and NW winds — a potential turning point if it materialises.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for at least one full dry day with sun and wind before visiting; June 14 looks the most promising window this week.
- If visiting on June 14–15, visually inspect rock surfaces carefully before climbing — check seepage lines on North Buttress and dampness under tree cover on Brown Crag.
- Stick to the open, south-facing main buttresses first, as these will dry fastest; avoid North Buttress and shaded areas until well into a dry spell.
Do Not Climb
92%
6 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently wet and receiving intermittent rain throughout today, following an exceptionally wet period of 86mm in the last 7 days and 188mm over 28 days. The rock will be thoroughly saturated on the surface with active runoff, making the normally high-friction BVS rock dangerously slippery.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage will be very active given the prolonged heavy rainfall totalling 86mm in the past week, and these seepage lines may take several dry days to subside.
- The Brown Crag area, which dries more slowly due to tree cover, will remain damp longer than the main south-facing buttresses even once the rain stops.
- The south/south-west aspect will aid rapid surface drying once the rain clears — Shepherd's is typically one of the first Borrowdale crags to come back into condition.
- Despite non-porous rock not suffering structural damage when wet, the rough BVS texture becomes notably slippery when damp, and with 100% cloud cover there is no solar drying today.
Warnings
2
- The BVS rock texture that gives superb friction when dry becomes treacherously slippery when wet — do not be tempted by brief dry spells between showers.
- Seepage from prolonged rain may make some routes weep for days even after surface drying; inspect individual routes carefully.
Reasoning
The rock is actively wet today with ~9mm of rain falling throughout the day on top of 86mm in the past 7 days, meaning all surfaces including sheltered areas will have standing moisture and active runoff.
With continuous rain today, 100% cloud cover, and 91% humidity, there is zero effective drying occurring; the south-facing aspect cannot help without any solar input.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern, but friction loss on the crystalline surface is severe when damp.
Early June should offer good drying potential, but this has been an unusually wet spell; longer daylight hours and higher sun angles will assist rapid recovery once a dry window arrives.
Contributing Factors
6
Intermittent rain is forecast throughout the entire day totalling ~9mm, keeping all rock surfaces wet.
86mm in the last 7 days and 188mm over 28 days means ground saturation, active drainage, and persistent seepage on the crag.
Humidity at 91% with 100% cloud cover all day prevents any evaporative drying of rock surfaces.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so once rain stops and surfaces dry, the rock will recover without needing deep drying time.
The S/SW aspect and low altitude mean the crag will respond quickly to any sunshine and moderate wind, potentially drying within hours of rain ceasing.
SW winds of 23 km/h provide some air movement but cannot overcome continuous precipitation and saturated air today.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is actively wet and dangerously slippery across all buttresses.
- Target June 14–15 as the first realistic dry window: two consecutive dry days with warmer temperatures and lower humidity should allow the main south-facing walls to dry.
- On arrival after the dry spell, check North Buttress and Brown Crag area carefully for residual seepage before committing to routes in those areas.
Do Not Climb
85%
8 days ago
Shepherd's Crag has received over 136mm of rain in the last 7 days, with significant downpours on June 3rd (33mm), 4th (43mm), 7th (19mm), and 8th (29mm), plus ongoing light rain today. Despite the non-porous rock and south-facing aspect, the crag will be thoroughly saturated with active seepage, and intermittent showers today prevent any meaningful drying window.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is particularly prone to seepage after prolonged wet spells like this — expect persistent water streaks across routes there for days.
- The Brown Crag area, sheltered by tree cover, will be the slowest section to dry and could remain damp even after the main face appears dry.
- The south/southwest aspect and short approach are advantages — once rain stops, this will be one of the first Lake District crags to come back into condition.
- Borrowdale is one of the wettest valleys in England; after 160mm+ in a month, drainage from slopes above the crag can feed seepage lines that aren't normally active.
Warnings
3
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — even a thin moisture film dramatically reduces friction on this otherwise superb rock.
- Active seepage from the prolonged wet spell may create unexpected wet patches on routes that are normally dry; test holds carefully.
- Approach paths will be muddy and slippery after this extended wet period.
Reasoning
With 136mm in the past week including heavy rain on 3 of the last 4 days and light rain continuing today, the rock surface will be wet with active runoff and seepage across much of the crag.
Today's intermittent showers (6.6mm total) and high humidity (79%) with overcast skies prevent any meaningful drying; the south-facing aspect cannot help when cloud cover is near 100% for most of the day.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Early June should offer good drying conditions, but this has been an exceptionally wet spell; the prolonged saturation means surrounding ground and vegetation are waterlogged, contributing to higher ambient humidity at the crag.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 136mm in 7 days with heavy events on June 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th has left the crag thoroughly drenched with active seepage.
Intermittent showers throughout today (6.6mm) prevent any drying, with brief gaps insufficient to clear surface moisture.
Average humidity of 84% over the last week and 79% today severely limits evaporative drying even during dry spells.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so once rain stops and surfaces dry, friction will return quickly without needing to wait for internal drying.
The S/SW aspect and low altitude mean this crag will recover faster than most Lake District venues once stable dry weather arrives.
160mm+ over the past month has saturated the hillside above the crag, feeding seepage lines that will persist even after surface drying.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the crag is wet with active seepage and intermittent rain continuing.
- Monitor conditions from June 12th onwards when forecasts show a transition to drier, warmer weather with good winds.
- When you do visit, start on the main south-facing buttresses (avoiding North Buttress and Brown Crag) as these will dry first.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
9 days ago
Heavy rain overnight and through early morning (24mm today, 127mm in the last 7 days) has thoroughly saturated the crag, but a dry window from ~08:00 through to ~20:00 with dropping humidity and moderate breeze on a south-facing aspect may allow the non-porous BVS surface to dry sufficiently by early-to-mid afternoon. Climbers arriving later today should visually and tactilely assess the rock before committing, as seepage and sheltered areas may remain damp.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress is known for persistent seepage after prolonged wet spells — with 127mm in the last week, expect seepage lines here and avoid routes on this buttress.
- Brown Crag area dries more slowly due to overhanging tree cover reducing direct sun and airflow; prioritise the more open south-facing buttresses.
- The south/south-west aspect and low altitude (170m) give Shepherd's Crag the best drying profile in Borrowdale, and even a few hours of breeze and broken cloud can dry exposed surfaces on non-porous BVS rock.
- The forecast shows continued unsettled weather for the coming days with rain returning tomorrow (11mm), so today's afternoon window may be the best opportunity this week.
Warnings
2
- Over 127mm of rain in the past week means seepage lines may be active on routes that are normally dry — test carefully.
- Rain returns tomorrow with further unsettled weather all week; today's afternoon window is narrow and conditions will deteriorate again by evening.
Reasoning
The rock surface is currently wet from 24mm of rain today (mostly before 07:00) on top of an exceptionally wet week (127mm in 7 days), though the non-porous BVS rock does not absorb water and surface moisture can evaporate relatively quickly.
A dry spell from ~08:00 with humidity dropping to 53–55% by mid-afternoon, moderate SW/S winds of 15–17 km/h, and partial sun on the south-facing aspect should allow exposed surfaces to dry within 4–6 hours, putting the earliest usable window around 13:00–14:00.
No structural risk — BVS rhyolite is non-porous and does not weaken when wet; the concern is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Early June provides long daylight hours and reasonable solar angle for south-facing rock, though temperatures are below seasonal average (11–12°C) and the prolonged wet spell has kept ambient humidity high.
Contributing Factors
6
127mm in the last 7 days including 24mm today means extensive surface water, saturated ground, and active seepage lines across the crag.
No rain forecast from 08:00 to 20:00 with humidity dropping to the mid-50s and moderate wind, giving roughly 6–8 hours of drying on exposed surfaces.
The south/south-west aspect maximises solar gain and the non-porous volcanic rock sheds surface water quickly, making Shepherd's Crag one of the fastest-drying venues in Borrowdale.
Average humidity over the last week is 84% and even today's afternoon low is ~53%, which slows evaporation compared to a truly dry spell.
Winds of 15–17 km/h from the south/southwest aid surface drying on exposed buttresses, though sheltered areas and tree-covered sections benefit less.
Rain returns tomorrow (11mm) and further showers are forecast on every day through June 13th, preventing any extended drying period.
Recommendations
3
- If climbing today, arrive no earlier than early afternoon (13:00–14:00) to allow maximum drying time, and physically test friction on lower holds before committing to routes.
- Stick to the most exposed south-facing buttresses and avoid North Buttress and Brown Crag area, which will retain seepage and dampness longest.
- Carry a towel to dab surface moisture on holds and be prepared to retreat if friction feels compromised — the rough BVS texture can feel deceptively grippy even when marginally damp.
Do Not Climb
95%
10 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently saturated after nearly 138mm of rain in the past week, with 35.8mm falling today alone. The forecast shows continued rain every day for the next five days, meaning conditions will not improve and the rock will remain wet and dangerously slippery.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The normally fast-drying south-facing aspect is largely irrelevant during this prolonged wet spell, as the rock has had zero consecutive dry days and continued rain is forecast.
- North Buttress seepage lines will be running heavily after this volume of rain and will take several dry days to subside even after the rain stops.
- The Brown Crag area, which is slower to dry due to tree cover, will be particularly wet and should be avoided entirely until a sustained dry spell arrives.
- Despite being non-porous BVS rock, the renowned friction of Shepherd's Crag is completely negated when wet — the rough crystalline texture becomes treacherously slippery with surface water.
Warnings
3
- The BVS rock at Shepherd's Crag is extremely slippery when wet — the rough texture that gives superb dry friction becomes treacherous with surface water.
- Seepage on North Buttress and saturated ground on approach paths present additional hazards during and after this level of rainfall.
- Strong winds forecast (up to 38 km/h) combined with wet rock create a serious fall risk on exposed pitches.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly wet after 138mm in the past seven days including 35.8mm today, with high humidity (90%) preventing any meaningful evaporation.
Zero consecutive dry days and continued daily rainfall forecast mean no drying window exists; the south-facing aspect and moderate wind exposure cannot overcome ongoing precipitation.
Rhyolite/BVS rock does not suffer structural damage from moisture, so hold breakage is not a concern here.
Early June should offer improving conditions, but this is an unusually prolonged wet spell; the high humidity and cool temperatures (averaging 11.7°C) are suppressing drying significantly.
Contributing Factors
6
Nearly 138mm in the past week with 35.8mm today means the crag and surrounding ground are completely saturated.
Rain is forecast every day for the next five days (57mm total), preventing any meaningful drying window.
Humidity has averaged 87% over the past week and remains at 90% today, drastically slowing surface evaporation.
Temperatures averaging only 11.7°C provide minimal thermal energy to drive evaporation from the rock surface.
BVS rhyolite won't suffer structural damage, but friction loss when wet makes climbing dangerous regardless.
The favourable aspect would normally aid drying but is irrelevant under continuous cloud cover and rainfall.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Shepherd's Crag until a sustained dry spell of at least 24–48 hours with lower humidity arrives.
- Monitor the forecast beyond June 13th, which currently shows the first dry day — if confirmed, conditions could improve rapidly given the favourable aspect.
- Consider indoor climbing or a rest day; no Lake District crag will be in good condition during this extended wet period.
Do Not Climb
92%
11 days ago
Shepherd's Crag is currently saturated after over 100mm of rain in the past week, including very heavy falls on June 3rd (33mm) and June 4th (43mm), with further rain today and no dry days since. The forecast shows continued rain every day through June 11th, meaning the crag will not get a meaningful drying window for at least five more days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- North Buttress seepage will be particularly active given the prolonged heavy rainfall — expect persistent weeping even after surface rock dries.
- The Brown Crag area, shaded by tree cover, will be especially slow to dry in these conditions and should be the last area attempted when conditions improve.
- Despite the south-facing aspect and normally quick drying characteristics, the sheer volume of recent rain (100mm+ in a week) combined with high humidity (~86%) will overwhelm the crag's usual drying advantage.
- The short approach from the road means a quick visual inspection is easy — worth checking conditions on the first dry day after this spell breaks, but don't expect miracles.
Warnings
3
- BVS rock is notoriously slippery when damp — the rough texture that gives superb dry friction becomes treacherous with even a film of moisture.
- Seepage from North Buttress and surrounding ground saturation may persist for 24–48 hours after rain stops given the extreme recent totals.
- High winds forecast (up to 30 km/h) combined with rain and cool temperatures create a significant wind-chill risk on exposed pitches.
Reasoning
The rock surface is almost certainly wet today given 4.8mm of rain falling on already-saturated ground, with 100mm+ in the preceding seven days and no consecutive dry days.
Despite the south/south-west aspect and partial wind exposure, zero dry days, persistent high humidity (86% average), and continuous rain have prevented any meaningful drying since June 1st.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not suffer structural weakening from moisture, so hold integrity is not a concern.
Early June should be prime climbing season in the Lakes, but this is an unusually prolonged wet spell; the long daylight hours and reasonable temperatures will aid rapid drying once the rain finally stops.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 106mm in the last 7 days, including 76mm across June 3rd–4th alone, has thoroughly soaked the crag and surrounding ground.
There has been no dry day since at least June 1st, preventing any surface drying between rain events.
Average humidity of 86% over the past week severely inhibits evaporative drying even during dry spells between showers.
Rain is forecast every day from June 7th through June 11th (totalling 36mm), meaning no drying window is expected for at least five days.
The favourable south/south-west aspect would normally aid rapid drying, but this advantage is negated by continuous rain and overcast skies.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so once rain stops and the surface dries, the rock will be climbable without extended wait times — but that dry window hasn't arrived.
Recommendations
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- Do not climb at Shepherd's Crag until a sustained dry spell of at least 12–24 hours occurs with dropping humidity.
- Monitor the forecast around June 12th, which currently shows no rain — this could be the first realistic window if the dry spell materialises and humidity drops.
- If you are in Borrowdale and keen for activity, consider lower-commitment walks or indoor climbing until this wet spell breaks.
Climbing Outlook