Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Great Wanney has had 5 consecutive dry days following only light, scattered precipitation, with the last significant rain (2.1mm) on August 9th. The S/SW aspect, exposed moorland setting, warm temperatures (up to 27.8°C recently), and steady winds have provided excellent drying conditions — the rock should be thoroughly dry today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The walk-in across open moorland can be boggy even in dry spells, so wet boots don't necessarily indicate wet rock — assess the crag base separately.
- The 10–20m escarpment means lower sections and any north-facing corners or chimneys may retain seepage longer than the main south-facing walls.
- Many routes at the easier grades (VDiff–Severe) are noted as serious for their grade, so good conditions and dry rock are especially important for safe climbing.
- The exposed hilltop position means conditions can change rapidly — keep an eye on incoming weather from the west, particularly ahead of the rain forecast for August 17th.
Reasoning
The last meaningful precipitation was 2.1mm on August 9th — five full dry days ago — and the preceding weeks saw only light, scattered showers with no prolonged soaking events, so internal moisture levels should be very low.
Five days of drying with S/SW aspect receiving strong summer solar radiation, consistent winds of 11–21 km/h, and notably warm temperatures (22–28°C on Aug 11–13) will have thoroughly dried even the more porous sections of the Fell Sandstone.
With extended drying and no recent heavy saturation events, the rock should be at full structural integrity with minimal risk of hold breakage or grain loosening.
Mid-August provides near-optimal drying conditions with long daylight hours, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk; the recent spell of 25–28°C temperatures will have driven out residual moisture effectively.
Contributing Factors
6
Five full days without meaningful precipitation since the last rain (2.1mm on Aug 9), well exceeding the 48-hour minimum guideline for light rain.
S/SW aspect in mid-August receives strong, prolonged solar radiation, and recent temperatures peaked at 27.8°C — exceptional drying conditions.
Consistent winds of 11–25 km/h across the open moorland have significantly accelerated evaporation from the rock surface and interior.
Today's humidity of 83% is somewhat elevated but follows three days of much lower humidity (63–76%), and the preceding dry spell did the bulk of the drying work.
Only 2.1mm fell in the last 7 days and no single event exceeded 2.1mm, meaning the rock was never deeply saturated in the recent period.
Significant rain is forecast for August 17th (4.6mm) and 18th (8.6mm), which will end the current dry spell and require fresh drying time afterwards.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today or over the next two days (Aug 14–16) to take advantage of the current dry window before rain arrives on August 17th.
- Check the base of the crag on arrival — if the ground immediately beneath the rock is sandy-dry, conditions are confirmed good.
- Be prepared for a boggy walk-in even in dry conditions and allow 20–30 minutes each way from the Fourlaws forestry gate.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
85%
2 days ago
Great Wanney has had four consecutive dry days following only trace/light precipitation, with today bringing excellent drying conditions — warm temperatures up to 28°C, low humidity (39–56% midday), and a south-westerly aspect catching full sun. The rock should be genuinely dry and in good condition for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The last significant rain was 2.1mm on Aug 9, followed by four full dry days with moderate winds and warm temperatures — well exceeding the 24–48 hour minimum for light rain on an exposed, south-facing crag.
- The S/SW aspect and exposed moorland setting mean the crag receives excellent solar radiation and wind exposure, making Great Wanney one of the faster-drying Fell Sandstone venues.
- The walk-in can be boggy even in dry spells — wet boots at the base do not necessarily indicate wet rock, but check the sandstone at crag-foot level before committing.
- The intermittent light showers through late July and early August (22.4mm over 28 days) have kept background moisture levels slightly elevated, so seepage lines at the base of taller sections may linger even when the main face is dry.
Reasoning
Four consecutive dry days after only 2.1mm of rain on Aug 9, combined with warm temperatures and an exposed S/SW aspect, indicate the rock should be thoroughly dry both on the surface and internally.
The S/SW aspect, exposed moorland position, and sustained winds (15–25 km/h over recent days) have provided excellent drying conditions, comfortably exceeding the 24–48 hour guideline for light rain.
With four dry days and today's warm, low-humidity conditions, internal moisture levels should be well below any threshold for structural concern — hold integrity is not at risk.
Mid-summer conditions are optimal for Fell Sandstone climbing, with long days, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk whatsoever.
Contributing Factors
6
No measurable precipitation since Aug 9 (2.1mm), giving ample drying time well beyond the 24–48 hour guideline for light rain.
Today's maximum of 28°C with midday humidity dropping to 39% provides exceptional evaporative drying power.
The south/south-westerly facing crag on open moorland receives maximum solar radiation and wind exposure, accelerating drying significantly.
Winds of 15–25 km/h over recent days efficiently remove surface moisture from the rock face.
Scattered trace amounts (0.0–0.5mm) on several days in late July/early August kept ambient humidity elevated but were individually too small to meaningfully rewet the rock.
Overnight humidity rises to 83–91% but daytime conditions are dry enough that this only causes surface condensation which burns off quickly in morning sun.
Recommendations
3
- Today offers excellent conditions — climb confidently but still do a quick visual and touch check at the crag base before starting, especially on lower sections.
- The walk-in is likely boggy in places despite the dry spell; wear appropriate footwear for the approach and allow 20–30 minutes.
- Conditions deteriorate from tomorrow with scattered showers forecast through the week — today is the standout day for the next five days.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
68%
3 days ago
The last significant rain was 9.1mm on August 4th, giving roughly 8 days of mostly dry weather, but repeated light showers (Aug 5, 7, 9, and trace today) have periodically re-wetted the surface. Today's warm, drying afternoon (25°C, low humidity ~45%) on this exposed S/SW crag is promising, but the intermittent moisture inputs and high average humidity (78% over the last week) mean a visual check on arrival is essential.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's 10–20m escarpment on open moorland at 280m catches wind well, which is the primary drying advantage here — the exposed S/SW aspect combined with prevailing winds means the upper faces dry substantially faster than the base.
- The approach walk-in (20–30 mins) crosses boggy ground that can itself indicate ambient moisture levels — if the moor is waterlogged, expect the crag base to be holding moisture too.
- The crag has seen 22.5mm of rain over the past 28 days spread across many small events rather than one large one, meaning the rock has been repeatedly re-wetted without long uninterrupted drying windows.
- Some routes at VDiff and Severe are described as notably serious for their grade, meaning falls are more consequential — any residual dampness on these routes compounds the risk significantly.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on any sections that feel cool, clammy, or show dark patches — surface-dry Fell Sandstone can still be dangerously weakened internally.
- Heavy rain (9.9mm) is forecast for August 16th followed by more on the 17th, which will reset drying clocks entirely — plan accordingly.
Reasoning
The heaviest rain (9.1mm on Aug 4) was 8 days ago and the rock has had substantial drying time since, but light showers on Aug 5 (1.7mm), Aug 7 (0.4mm), Aug 9 (2.1mm), and trace amounts today have periodically re-introduced surface moisture, preventing a clean continuous drying window.
The S/SW aspect and exposed moorland setting at 280m mean drying is above average for Fell Sandstone; today's conditions (25°C, humidity dropping to 44%, moderate southerly wind) are excellent for drying, and the two fully dry days (Aug 10–11) with good temperatures provided a solid drying window before today's trace moisture.
Given 8 days since the last heavy rain and summer temperatures, internal saturation from the Aug 4 event should have largely dissipated, but the repeated light re-wetting events mean some residual pore moisture may persist, particularly in lower or sheltered sections.
Mid-August is one of the best times for Fell Sandstone with long daylight hours, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk — conditions are seasonally favourable for drying and climbing.
Contributing Factors
6
The 9.1mm event on Aug 4 was 8 days ago, providing substantial overall drying time for porous Fell Sandstone.
Light precipitation on Aug 5, 7, 9, and trace today has repeatedly re-wetted surfaces, preventing an uninterrupted drying window.
Afternoon temperatures of 25°C with humidity as low as 44% and moderate southerly wind on this S/SW exposed crag create excellent drying conditions.
The 7-day average humidity of 78% has slowed evaporative drying from the rock's interior between shower events.
The south/south-west facing escarpment on open moorland receives strong solar radiation and consistent wind exposure, significantly aiding drying.
A trace 0.1mm is forecast around 19:00 this evening, adding trivial but non-zero surface moisture.
Recommendations
3
- Climb this afternoon if you go today — the period from roughly 12:00–18:00 offers the best drying window with warm temperatures, low humidity, and direct sun on the S/SW face.
- On arrival, check the base of the crag and lower holds carefully: if the ground beneath the rock is damp or holds feel cool and clammy, the interior is still too wet — walk away.
- Tomorrow (Aug 13) looks even better with 26°C forecast and continued low humidity; if in any doubt today, waiting one more day costs nothing and gives further confidence.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
5 days ago
The last significant rain was 9.1mm on August 4th, six days ago, but repeated light showers since then (1.7mm on the 5th, 0.4mm on the 7th, 2.1mm on the 9th) have kept resetting the drying clock. With only one full dry day since the most recent 2.1mm shower on August 9th, and high average humidity (83%) over the past week, the rock may still hold internal moisture despite the exposed S/SW aspect and reasonable wind.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The 9.1mm event on Aug 4th was the heaviest in weeks and likely saturated deeper into the rock; subsequent light showers on Aug 5, 7, and 9 have repeatedly topped up surface moisture before full drying could occur.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting at 280m means the approach track will be boggy — if the ground at the crag base is still damp, treat the rock as still wet internally.
- The S/SW aspect and today's dropping humidity (down to ~54% by mid-afternoon) with light wind will aid surface drying, but the overnight high humidity (96%) means dew likely formed on the rock this morning.
- Lower sections and any recessed corners or north-facing buttress ends will dry significantly slower than the main south-facing wall — check these areas carefully before committing.
Warnings
2
- The surface may appear and feel dry while the interior remains damp — Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet, risking permanent hold breakage.
- The 20–30 minute approach is boggy in places; if the moorland is still waterlogged, this is a strong indicator the rock has not fully dried.
Reasoning
Repeated light precipitation events (0.4mm on Aug 7, 2.1mm on Aug 9) over the past week, combined with 83% average humidity, mean the rock has had insufficient continuous drying time and likely retains internal moisture despite surface appearance.
Only one dry day has elapsed since the 2.1mm rain on Aug 9; the S/SW aspect and exposed wind (12–25 km/h) help surface drying, but the guideline of 24–48 hours minimum after light rain is barely met, and the heavier 9.1mm event from Aug 4 complicates deeper drying.
With cumulative precipitation of 13.3mm over the past seven days and incomplete drying cycles, there is a moderate risk that iron-oxide cemented holds remain weakened internally even if the surface feels dry.
Mid-summer conditions are broadly favourable with warm temperatures and long days, but the recent pattern of high humidity and frequent light showers has been unusually damp for August.
Contributing Factors
6
Light rain on Aug 5 (1.7mm), Aug 7 (0.4mm), and Aug 9 (2.1mm) has repeatedly reset the drying clock, preventing the rock from achieving a continuous 48-hour dry window.
The 9.1mm event on August 4th would have saturated pores significantly, and subsequent incomplete drying cycles mean deeper moisture may persist.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying, even with the crag's exposed aspect.
The south/south-west facing aspect and exposed moorland setting maximise solar radiation and wind exposure, making Great Wanney one of the faster-drying Fell Sandstone crags.
Today is forecast fully dry with humidity dropping to 54% by mid-afternoon and moderate wind, providing good surface drying conditions.
The next four days forecast 0mm rain with temperatures up to 28°C and humidity as low as 62%, which should allow thorough drying.
Recommendations
3
- If visiting today, perform a thorough touch-test on the rock and check that the ground at the crag base is sandy-dry before climbing — if it's still damp, walk away.
- Tomorrow (Aug 11) onwards offers a much more confident window with two full dry days elapsed, dropping humidity, and warming temperatures.
- Avoid lower sections of the crag and any recessed or north-facing features today, as these will be the last areas to dry.
Do Not Climb
55%
5 days ago
Today saw 2.4mm of rain on top of a notably unsettled week (14.1mm in the last 7 days including 9.1mm on Aug 4th), and with high average humidity (84%) drying has been sluggish. The rock is very likely still holding internal moisture and should not be climbed today; tomorrow's dry forecast with moderate conditions may begin adequate drying, but two full dry days are needed before climbing can be considered.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's S/SW aspect and exposed moorland setting are significant advantages for drying, but the easterly and northerly winds earlier in the week would not have driven air effectively across the south-facing rock face.
- The 10–20m escarpment means lower sections will retain moisture longer as water drains downward through the porous sandstone — base routes and lower boulder problems will be last to dry.
- The walk-in is described as boggy in places, which is a useful proxy indicator: if the approach moorland is saturated, the crag base and surrounding ground are likely still wet, suggesting internal rock moisture.
- The recent cluster of rain events (3.6mm on Jul 26, 2.7mm on Jul 28, 9.1mm on Aug 4, 1.7mm on Aug 5, 2.4mm today) has given the sandstone little chance to fully dry out between wettings, meaning cumulative saturation is a real concern.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb today — the rock was freshly wetted and cumulative saturation from the past two weeks makes hold breakage a real risk.
- Surface-dry rock does not mean safe rock: Fell Sandstone can appear dry on the surface while remaining dangerously weakened internally after this pattern of repeated wetting.
Reasoning
With 2.4mm of rain today and repeated wetting events over the past two weeks (including 9.1mm on Aug 4th), the porous Fell Sandstone is very likely holding significant internal moisture despite any surface drying between showers.
Although the SW aspect and exposed setting help, average humidity of 84% over the last week has severely limited evaporative drying, and the rock has had no run of more than two consecutive fully dry days since late July.
The cumulative wetting pattern raises the risk of internal saturation well above the threshold where iron oxide cemented holds become weakened — climbing today or tomorrow risks hold breakage and permanent route damage.
Mid-summer temperatures (13–20°C) are adequate for drying in principle, but the recent spell has been cool for August with below-average solar input, slowing recovery.
Contributing Factors
7
Today's 2.4mm of rain has freshly wetted the rock surface, resetting the drying clock to zero consecutive dry days.
14.1mm in the last 7 days across multiple events has kept the sandstone repeatedly saturated with no adequate drying window.
Average humidity of 84% over the past week severely limits net evaporation from the rock surface, prolonging internal moisture retention.
The south/south-west facing aspect and exposed moorland setting maximise solar radiation and wind exposure, giving this crag above-average drying potential when conditions allow.
Winds of 20–30 km/h from the SW/W over recent days and continuing tomorrow help strip surface moisture, particularly effective on this exposed crag.
Two dry days forecast (Aug 10–11) with dropping humidity and rising temperatures to 22°C should allow meaningful drying if the dry window holds.
Average temperature of only 13.4°C over the past week is cool for August at this latitude, reducing evaporative drying rates.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least until August 11th before considering a visit, and only if the forecast dry window holds — two full dry days after today's rain is the minimum for this porous sandstone.
- On arrival, check the ground at the crag base: if the soil and vegetation are still damp or boggy, the rock almost certainly retains internal moisture and should not be climbed.
- Prioritise upper-wall and overhanging routes first as these will dry fastest; avoid slab and base-level routes which retain moisture longest.
Do Not Climb
35%
6 days ago
Great Wanney has received significant recent rainfall — 9.1mm on August 4th, 1.7mm on the 5th, and further trace amounts on the 7th and today — with no consecutive dry days yet established. Despite the exposed, south-facing aspect and moderate winds, the high humidity (averaging 83% over the past week) and continued light precipitation mean the porous Fell Sandstone is very likely still holding internal moisture and should not be climbed today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The 9.1mm event on August 4th was the heaviest single-day rainfall in nearly a month and will have saturated the upper layers of the sandstone; subsequent trace precipitation on the 5th, 7th, and 8th has repeatedly interrupted drying.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting and S/SW aspect are strong drying advantages, but with average humidity at 83% over the past week, evaporative drying has been significantly suppressed.
- The boggy walk-in approach is a useful proxy indicator — if the moorland is waterlogged, expect the crag base to be damp and seepage lines active.
- The escarpment's 10–20m height means lower sections and any recessed features will retain moisture far longer than the exposed upper walls; base-level routes are highest risk.
Warnings
2
- Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet — climbing on damp rock risks permanent hold breakage and irreversible route damage.
- The rock surface may appear dry while the interior remains saturated; do not rely on visual assessment alone without adequate drying time.
Reasoning
The 9.1mm rain on August 4th will have driven the wetting front deep into the sandstone, and repeated light precipitation on the 5th (1.7mm), 7th (0.4mm), and today (0.3mm) has kept the surface wet, preventing effective outward drying.
Although the SW/W winds at 20–30 km/h on the exposed crag would normally promote rapid drying, persistently high humidity (81–90%) and the absence of any consecutive dry days since August 4th mean net evaporation has been minimal.
With the sandstone likely above the critical ~1% saturation threshold internally, there is a real risk of hold breakage and grain loosening — especially on the iron-oxide-cemented small holds that characterise Great Wanney's harder routes.
Summer conditions should favour recovery, but August 2026 has been notably unsettled at this site, with temperatures below average (13–14°C over the past week) limiting drying potential compared to typical summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
9.1mm fell on August 4th — well above the 'light rain' threshold — requiring a minimum 48–72 hours of genuinely dry weather to clear from porous Fell Sandstone.
Trace to light precipitation on the 5th, 7th, and 8th has repeatedly reset the drying clock, preventing the rock from establishing any sustained drying period.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying, meaning even wind-assisted drying has been far less effective than normal.
The south/south-west facing crag on open moorland receives good solar radiation and is fully exposed to the prevailing winds, which are the site's strongest drying assets.
Winds of 20–30 km/h from W/SW over recent days help move moist air from the rock surface, partially offsetting the high humidity.
Temperatures averaging only 13–14°C over the past week are below summer norms for this latitude, reducing evaporation rates.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock has had zero consecutive dry days since the 9.1mm event on August 4th and is very likely wet internally despite any surface appearance.
- Target August 11th or 12th if the forecast dry spell holds, as this would provide 48+ hours of dry weather with improving temperatures and lower humidity.
- On arrival, check the ground at the crag base and the moorland approach — if the peat is waterlogged or the crag foot is damp, the sandstone will certainly still be holding moisture.
Do Not Climb
35%
7 days ago
Great Wanney has received significant recent rainfall — 9.1mm on August 4th, 1.7mm on August 5th, and 0.4mm today — with high humidity (85% average over the past week) limiting drying. Despite the exposed, south-facing aspect and decent wind, there has been zero consecutive fully dry days, and the rock is very likely still holding internal moisture.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The 9.1mm event on August 4th is the most significant rainfall in the recent window, and with only two days of marginal drying since (punctuated by further light rain on Aug 5th and today), the porous Fell Sandstone will still be absorbing moisture internally.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting at 280m means strong westerly/south-westerly winds (20–30+ km/h recently) do aid surface drying, but the persistently high humidity (85–90%) greatly reduces the effectiveness of wind-driven evaporation.
- The 20–30 minute boggy walk-in is itself a useful indicator — if the approach ground is waterlogged or notably soggy, the crag's base sections will almost certainly still be damp.
- The S/SW aspect is favourable for solar drying in summer, but the crag's 10–20m height means lower sections and any north-facing returns or corners will lag significantly behind the main face.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb today — the rock received rain this morning and is certainly still wet from the 9.1mm event three days ago.
- Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet; holds that feel solid when dry can snap off without warning on damp rock.
Reasoning
With 9.1mm on Aug 4th, 1.7mm on Aug 5th, and 0.4mm today, and zero consecutive dry days since, the rock is very likely still wet internally despite any surface drying.
Strong SW winds (20–30 km/h) on an exposed S/SW-facing crag would normally promote rapid drying, but persistently high humidity (85–90%) severely limits net evaporation, meaning the 48–72+ hours of good drying conditions needed after the Aug 4th event have not yet occurred.
The cumulative 11.9mm over the past 7 days on porous Fell Sandstone with inadequate drying intervals creates genuine hold-breakage risk, particularly on the iron-oxide-cemented small holds that define many routes here.
Mid-summer temperatures are adequate for drying but the current unsettled spell with high humidity is more characteristic of an Atlantic-influenced pattern, slowing recovery significantly.
Contributing Factors
6
9.1mm fell on August 4th — well above the 'heavy rain' threshold — requiring 48–72+ hours of good drying conditions that have not yet materialised.
Light rain on Aug 5th (1.7mm), Aug 6th (0.0mm dry but following saturation), and today Aug 7th (0.4mm) means the rock has had no sustained drying window since the main event.
Average humidity of 85% over the past 7 days severely limits evaporative drying regardless of wind speed.
Sustained winds of 20–30 km/h on this exposed moorland crag do accelerate surface drying, partially offsetting the high humidity.
South/south-westerly facing rock receives good summer solar radiation, helping surface evaporation during daylight hours.
Recent temperatures averaging around 13–16°C are adequate but not exceptional for driving drying, especially at 280m altitude.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for at least 48 hours of genuinely dry weather with humidity below 75% before visiting — tomorrow (Aug 8th) could begin that window but is not sufficient alone.
- If you do visit, check the approach path and crag base carefully: if the ground is still boggy and the rock base is damp to the touch, do not climb.
- Consider waiting until August 11th–12th if the forecast dry spell materialises, as this would finally provide the sustained drying window the rock needs.
Do Not Climb
35%
9 days ago
Great Wanney received 9.1mm of rain on Aug 4 followed by further showers on Aug 5 (1.8mm) and light drizzle today, with persistently high humidity averaging 83% over the past week — insufficient drying time has elapsed for porous Fell Sandstone to be safe. Despite the exposed S/SW aspect and moderate winds, the cumulative recent moisture and lack of any sustained dry spell mean internal rock saturation is likely still significant.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's 10–20m escarpment means lower sections will retain moisture much longer than the upper face, with drainage seepage potentially persisting at the base for days after the Aug 4 heavy rain.
- The 20–30 minute walk-in crosses boggy moorland — if the approach is waterlogged, the crag is almost certainly still holding internal moisture.
- Easterly and northeasterly winds that dominated much of mid-to-late July would not have been hitting the S/SW face directly, reducing their drying effectiveness on the climbing surface.
- The crag sits at 280m on exposed moorland where overnight temperatures have been dropping to 5–10°C, slowing evaporation rates during the long overnight and early morning hours.
Warnings
2
- Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet — climbing now risks permanent hold breakage on irreplaceable routes.
- The rock surface may feel dry to the touch this afternoon while internal saturation remains dangerously high after 9.1mm on Aug 4.
Reasoning
The 9.1mm event on Aug 4 followed by 1.8mm on Aug 5 and trace precipitation today means only ~1.5 dry days have elapsed since significant wetting, well short of the 48–72+ hours needed after heavy rain on porous Fell Sandstone.
Although the S/SW aspect and exposed position with 20–25 km/h westerly winds today are favourable for drying, humidity has averaged 83% over the past week and only dropped below 60% briefly this afternoon — net evaporation has been limited.
With recent heavy rain likely pushing internal saturation well above the critical thresholds, hold breakage risk on the iron-oxide cemented small holds is elevated and climbing could cause permanent damage to routes.
Mid-summer temperatures are moderate (12–16°C) which aids drying, but the unsettled pattern with frequent light showers since late July has prevented the rock from fully drying out between rain events.
Contributing Factors
7
9.1mm fell on Aug 4 — the heaviest single-day total in 28 days — with only ~1.5 days elapsed since, far short of the 48–72 hours minimum needed.
Light showers on Aug 5 (1.8mm), today (0.2mm), and forecast tomorrow (0.6mm) keep resetting the drying clock and preventing sustained evaporation.
Average humidity over the past 7 days is 83%, severely limiting net evaporation from the rock surface even during daytime.
The south/south-west facing escarpment on open moorland receives good solar radiation and is fully exposed to the prevailing westerly winds, which are the strongest drying advantages this crag has.
Winds of 20–25 km/h from the W/SW today are hitting the face directly and accelerating surface evaporation.
The past 28 days have seen 21.4mm across numerous small events with zero consecutive dry days recorded, meaning the rock has had no extended opportunity to dry internally.
Humidity drops to 52–58% between 13:00–17:00 today with some cloud breaks, offering a limited surface drying window.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — wait for at least 48 hours of genuinely dry weather with humidity consistently below 75% before considering a visit.
- Check the moorland approach: if the boggy walk-in is saturated, treat that as a reliable indicator that the crag is still holding internal moisture.
- The best upcoming window may be Aug 10–11 if the forecasted dry spell materialises — but reassess closer to the date as conditions remain unsettled.
Do Not Climb
90%
11 days ago
Great Wanney has received 5.5mm of rain today (most falling overnight and into late morning), on top of a consistently damp recent period with multiple light rain events over the past week totalling 7.2mm. The rock will be thoroughly wet and must not be climbed today; the forecast shows further rain tomorrow (5.7mm) making conditions worse before they can improve.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting at 280m means the walk-in is boggy after rain — if the approach is waterlogged, the rock is almost certainly still saturated internally.
- The S/SW aspect and exposed position are helpful for drying, but the recent run of easterly and northeasterly winds has reduced the benefit of aspect-driven solar drying over the past two weeks.
- The crag has seen a pattern of frequent light precipitation events (0.2–0.7mm) interspersed with the heavier falls on July 26 (3.6mm), July 28 (2.7mm), and today (5.5mm), meaning the sandstone has had very few genuinely dry spells to shed internal moisture.
- Upper sections of the 10–20m escarpment may appear surface-dry before lower sections, but capillary drainage means the base — where many routes start — will remain damp longest.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on wet Fell Sandstone causes permanent, irreversible damage to holds and routes — do not climb even if the surface appears partially dry.
- The boggy walk-in will be particularly challenging after recent rain; wear appropriate footwear and allow extra time.
Reasoning
Today's 5.5mm of rain, falling mostly overnight and through the morning with near-100% humidity, will have thoroughly saturated the porous Fell Sandstone surface and driven moisture deep into the rock.
Although the afternoon may clear somewhat with moderate winds (~15–22 km/h) and temperatures around 20°C, a few hours of partial drying cannot offset the morning's soaking — especially given that the rock had barely dried from the 0.6mm on August 3rd and the repeated light rain events of the past week.
With the sandstone likely at high internal saturation from cumulative recent rainfall, compressive strength will be significantly reduced (potentially 30%+ loss), making hold breakage and grain loosening a real risk.
Summer temperatures (13–21°C) aid evaporation when conditions allow, but the persistently high humidity (82% average over the past week) and frequent precipitation have severely limited effective drying windows.
Contributing Factors
6
5.5mm fell mostly overnight and through the morning, thoroughly wetting the rock surface and driving moisture into the porous sandstone.
7.2mm over the past 7 days with no consecutive dry spell longer than 2 days means the rock has had no opportunity to dry out internally.
Average humidity of 82% over the past week and 88% today severely limits evaporative drying even when rain stops.
5.7mm forecast for August 5th means conditions will worsen before any meaningful drying can begin.
The south/south-west facing exposed position will aid drying once a genuine dry spell arrives, with good wind exposure accelerating surface evaporation.
Winds of 20–25 km/h forecast through the coming days will help move moist air from the rock surface when rain stops.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Great Wanney today or in the next few days — the rock is wet and further rain is forecast through to August 9th.
- Monitor conditions closely from August 6th onwards; if the forecast dry window on the 6th holds and is followed by continued dry weather, the earliest realistic climbing window might open around August 8–9, but the current forecast shows more rain on those days.
- On arrival after any eventual dry spell, check that the ground at the crag base is sandy-dry before committing to climb — if it is damp, the rock will still be wet internally.
Do Not Climb
72%
12 days ago
Great Wanney has not had a meaningful dry spell recently — light but frequent precipitation over the past week (4.6mm across multiple days) combined with high humidity (averaging 82%) means the rock has had no opportunity to fully dry out. Tomorrow's forecast of 11.7mm of heavy rain will saturate the crag further, making conditions unsuitable today and for the coming days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The S/SW aspect and exposed moorland setting normally give Great Wanney above-average drying, but prevailing easterly winds over the past week have reduced the benefit — wind from the east does not flush moisture from the south-facing face as effectively.
- The walk-in crosses boggy ground, which is a useful proxy for crag moisture: if the approach is waterlogged, the base of the crag will still be damp internally.
- The escarpment's 10–20m height means lower sections will hold moisture longer due to drainage from above, even when upper walls appear dry.
- Many routes here are notably serious for their grade (VDiffs and Severes described as 'testing') — any residual moisture on the small iron-oxide holds increases the already considerable fall potential.
Warnings
2
- 11.7mm of heavy rain is forecast for tomorrow (August 4), which will fully saturate the Fell Sandstone and require a minimum 48–72 hours of dry weather before climbing.
- The rock may appear surface-dry in afternoon wind today but will still be holding internal moisture from repeated recent wetting — do not be fooled by dry-looking surfaces.
Reasoning
Frequent light precipitation events on July 26 (3.6mm), July 28 (2.7mm), July 29–31, August 1, and today (0.8mm) have kept the rock intermittently wet with no consecutive dry window exceeding two days, meaning internal moisture has not had time to fully evacuate.
Despite the S/SW aspect and exposed position, easterly and northeasterly winds over the past week have been suboptimal for drying this south-facing crag, and average humidity of 82% has further impeded evaporation.
The cumulative wetting from repeated light rain events over the past 10 days poses a moderate risk of grain loosening on the porous Fell Sandstone, particularly on lower sections where moisture persists longest.
Summer temperatures are adequate for drying (13–20°C range) and freeze-thaw is not a concern, but the unsettled weather pattern with frequent fronts is preventing the sustained dry spell the rock needs.
Contributing Factors
6
Multiple rain events over the past 10 days (3.6mm on July 26, 2.7mm on July 28, plus several trace amounts) have prevented the rock from achieving a full drying cycle.
Zero consecutive dry days as of today, with light rain (0.8mm) falling this morning — the rock has had no uninterrupted 48-hour drying period since July 26.
Average humidity of 82% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying, meaning even dry hours contribute little to moisture removal.
11.7mm forecast for August 4 will fully saturate the crag, resetting any partial drying that occurs today.
The south/south-west facing exposed moorland setting is the best possible orientation for drying, and wind speeds have been moderate (15–25 km/h), but easterly wind directions have reduced this benefit.
Temperatures in the 15–20°C range are sufficient for evaporation and freeze-thaw is not a concern at this time of year.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock has been intermittently wetted over the past week with no adequate drying window, and tomorrow brings heavy rain (11.7mm) that will fully resaturate the crag.
- Monitor conditions from August 7 onwards, which is the first forecast dry day after the rain, but only climb if at least 48 hours of dry weather with low humidity materialise.
- On arrival, check the boggy approach and the ground at the crag base as a moisture proxy: if the base soil is damp, the rock interior is almost certainly still wet.
Climbing Outlook