Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
The last significant rain was 9.1mm on Aug 19, followed by 1.5mm on Aug 20 and 2.2mm on Aug 25 — giving only one full dry day before today. The S/SW aspect and exposed setting help drying, but persistently high humidity (~83% average over the last week) has slowed evaporation; a careful on-site assessment is needed before committing to climb, and heavy rain is forecast from tomorrow making this potentially the last window for several days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland position at 280m means wind-assisted drying is excellent, but the approach track across the moor can be very boggy after recent rain — allow extra time and wear appropriate footwear.
- The S/SW aspect receives strong solar radiation through the afternoon, so the upper and more exposed sections of the 10–20m escarpment will dry fastest, while any recessed or north-facing corners may still hold dampness.
- The 2.2mm shower on Aug 25 was light but followed a wet spell (9.1mm on Aug 19, 6.9mm on Aug 17, 1.6mm on Aug 16), meaning the rock's internal moisture loading has been repeatedly topped up over the past 10 days.
- Many routes here are noted as serious for their grade (VDiffs and Severes especially) — any residual dampness on the small iron-oxide holds that characterise Fell Sandstone would compound the already bold nature of these climbs.
Warnings
2
- Heavy rain (16.9mm) is forecast for tomorrow Aug 27 — this is likely the last possible window for nearly a week; do not be tempted to push conditions.
- The rock may appear surface-dry in the midday sun while remaining internally saturated from repeated recent wetting — use the ground-moisture test at the crag base as a proxy.
Reasoning
The 2.2mm rain on Aug 25 topped up moisture from a wet period (9.1mm on Aug 19, 6.9mm on Aug 17), and only one full dry day has elapsed since, so the rock may still hold internal moisture despite appearing surface-dry in places.
The S/SW aspect and moderate wind (~15–20 km/h) today with clearing skies midday provide reasonable drying conditions, but average humidity of 83% over the past week has significantly limited net evaporation rates.
Repeated wetting cycles over the past two weeks (36.5mm in 28 days with several discrete events) mean Fell Sandstone grain bonds may be weakened even where the surface appears dry — hold breakage risk is elevated.
Late August provides decent daylight hours and moderate temperatures (max ~20°C today), which is favourable for drying, though the approaching autumn pattern of frequent frontal rain is clearly evident in the forecast.
Contributing Factors
6
2.2mm fell yesterday, giving only one full dry day — insufficient to guarantee internal drying of porous Fell Sandstone even after light rain.
36.5mm over 28 days with significant events on Aug 4, 9, 16, 17, 19, and 25 means the rock has been repeatedly re-saturated without extended drying windows.
Average humidity of 83% over the past 7 days severely limits net evaporation from the rock surface.
The south/south-west facing escarpment benefits from afternoon solar radiation, with clearing skies forecast midday today reaching ~20°C, boosting surface evaporation.
Sustained winds of 15–20 km/h across the open moorland help move moist air away from the rock face, significantly aiding drying.
16.9mm forecast for Aug 27 followed by further heavy rain on Aug 28 and 30 will re-saturate the rock completely, closing any remaining window.
Recommendations
3
- If climbing today, target the afternoon window (11:00–16:00) when humidity drops to ~67–72% and the sun hits the S/SW face, but perform a thorough touch-test of holds before committing — if any dampness is felt, back off.
- Avoid lower sections and any recessed or drainage-line areas where moisture concentrates; focus on the most exposed upper faces if conditions pass your on-site assessment.
- Do not plan any climbing from tomorrow (Aug 27) through at least Sep 1, as heavy rain totalling over 40mm is forecast — the rock will need several dry days after that to be safe.
Previous Analyses
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
57 days ago
Four consecutive dry days with moderate temperatures and a favourable S/SW aspect have likely dried the rock after the last significant rain (9.1mm on Aug 19), but the persistently high average humidity (82%) and the earlier wet spell (6.9mm on Aug 17, then further rain on Aug 18–20) mean internal moisture could linger — a visual and tactile check on arrival is essential. Today offers a good afternoon window with low humidity and sunshine, but rain returns tomorrow and conditions will deteriorate sharply for the rest of the week.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting and S/SW aspect maximise solar gain and wind drying, which partly compensates for the 280m altitude — but the walk-in is boggy in places, suggesting the surrounding ground is still holding moisture from recent rain.
- The crag's 10–20m height means lower sections will have dried more slowly than upper tiers; base-of-crag seepage and capillary rise from the boggy moorland beneath can keep the lowest metre or two damp even when upper rock feels dry.
- The recent wet spell (Aug 16–20 totalling ~19.4mm across five days) loaded the porous Fell Sandstone with moisture; while four dry days is encouraging, the average humidity of 82% over that drying window has slowed evaporation.
- A prolonged wet forecast from Aug 25–29 (32+ mm expected) means today is effectively the last realistic climbing window for at least a week — but this should not pressure climbers into climbing on borderline-damp rock.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on any section that feels cool to the touch or shows darker patches — surface-dry Fell Sandstone can still be dangerously weakened internally.
- The approaching wet forecast (32mm+ over Aug 25–29) will re-saturate the crag; do not plan any climbing for at least 48–72 hours after the rain ends.
Reasoning
The last heavy rain was 9.1mm on Aug 19 followed by 1.5mm on Aug 20, with four fully dry days since; the S/SW-facing, wind-exposed rock has had reasonable but not ideal drying conditions given persistent 80%+ humidity.
Four dry days with moderate wind (9–17 km/h) and temperatures around 14–18°C on a south-facing exposed crag should be sufficient to dry surface and near-surface rock after ~10mm of rain, though the high humidity (averaging 82%) has slowed the drying rate compared to what the aspect and exposure would normally deliver.
If the rock is genuinely dry, structural risk is low in summer conditions with no freeze-thaw concern; however, residual internal moisture from the extended mid-August wet period (37mm in 28 days) could still weaken holds at depth on lower sections.
Mid-to-late August is generally a good period for Fell Sandstone with long daylight hours and no freeze-thaw risk, though this summer has been wetter than average with frequent showers interrupting drying cycles.
Contributing Factors
6
No measurable precipitation since Aug 20 (1.5mm), giving roughly 96 hours of drying time on the rock.
The south/south-west facing, wind-exposed escarpment receives strong solar radiation and airflow, accelerating evaporation significantly compared to sheltered or north-facing crags.
Average humidity over the drying window has been ~82%, limiting the vapour pressure gradient and slowing evaporation from the rock's interior.
Approximately 19mm fell across Aug 16–20, deeply saturating the porous sandstone and requiring more drying time than a single rain event would.
Humidity drops to 49–55% between 12:00–17:00 with sunshine and moderate wind, providing the best few hours for final surface drying.
Rain is forecast from Aug 25 onwards with over 32mm expected across 5 days, meaning conditions will worsen sharply after today.
Recommendations
3
- Visit this afternoon (12:00–17:00) when humidity is lowest and carefully check the rock surface and base-of-crag ground before committing — if the ground at the crag foot is damp, do not climb.
- Focus on upper and overhanging sections which will have dried fastest; avoid lower slabs and any sections with visible seepage or darker coloration.
- Be prepared to walk away — today is the last window before a prolonged wet spell, but that urgency should not override the need for genuinely dry rock.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
65%
58 days ago
Three consecutive dry days with moderate temperatures and a favourable S/SW aspect have provided reasonable drying time since the last significant rain (9.1mm on Aug 19), but high average humidity (85%) over the past week has slowed evaporation. Conditions are likely approaching climbable but a visual check on arrival is essential, particularly at the base and in any recessed or seepage-prone areas.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The 9.1mm event on Aug 19 followed by 1.5mm on Aug 20 means the rock absorbed a significant wetting only 4 days ago; the S/SW aspect and exposed position have helped but humidity has been persistently high.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting at 280m means the walk-in can be boggy even when the crag itself is dry — wet ground at the base is a useful proxy for internal rock moisture.
- East-facing winds forecast from Aug 25 onward will not dry the S/SW-facing rock as effectively as the prevailing westerlies, and a major rain event (17mm+19mm) is expected Aug 27–28.
- The escarpment's lower sections and any north-facing returns or gullies will retain moisture longer than the main south-facing wall — focus on upper and overhanging routes if conditions are borderline.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb if the rock feels cool or clammy to the touch, even if it appears visually dry — internal moisture can weaken holds by up to 50%.
- Heavy rain forecast Aug 27–28 (17mm + 19mm) will fully saturate the rock; allow a minimum of 3–4 dry days afterward before returning.
Reasoning
The rock received 9.1mm on Aug 19 and a further 1.5mm on Aug 20, giving three full dry days (Aug 21–23) for drying, but persistent humidity averaging 85% has limited evaporative potential.
The S/SW aspect receives good solar radiation and the exposed position has provided moderate winds (9–16 km/h from N/NW/S), which together offer reasonable drying, though the cool temperatures (avg ~11°C) and high humidity have slowed the process below optimal rates.
With three dry days after moderate rain, the surface should be dry but internal moisture may linger in the most porous sections, posing some residual risk of grain loosening on heavily weathered holds.
Late August provides adequate daylight and no freeze-thaw risk; however, the recent pattern of frequent showery weather has kept background moisture levels elevated compared to a typical summer dry spell.
Contributing Factors
6
9.1mm on Aug 19 plus 1.5mm on Aug 20 represents a moderate wetting event only 3–4 days ago, requiring careful assessment of internal drying.
No rain since Aug 20, meeting the minimum community guideline of two dry days for porous rock, with a third day providing additional margin.
The south/south-west facing aspect and exposed moorland setting maximise solar gain and wind exposure, accelerating drying significantly compared to sheltered or north-facing crags.
Average humidity of 85% over the past week substantially reduces the evaporative drying rate, meaning three dry days may not have fully dried the rock internally.
Average temperature of only 11.2°C over the past week is below optimal for rapid drying, slowing moisture migration from the rock interior.
The past 28 days have seen 40.6mm with rain on many days, keeping background saturation levels elevated and preventing the rock from fully drying out between events.
Recommendations
3
- Visit today (Aug 23) or tomorrow (Aug 24) for the best window — check the rock surface and crag base carefully on arrival and do not climb if the ground below the crag is still damp.
- Focus on the upper, overhanging, or most exposed sections of the main south-facing wall where drying will be most advanced; avoid lower slabs and any recessed corners.
- Be aware that a major rain event is forecast for Aug 27–28 (36mm total) which will close the crag for several days afterward — plan accordingly.
Do Not Climb
35%
59 days ago
Great Wanney received 9.1mm of rain on August 19th followed by 1.5mm on August 20th, with only two dry days since — insufficient drying time given the high humidity (86% average over the last week) and moderate temperatures. The S/SW aspect and exposed position help, but the rock is very likely still holding internal moisture.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The 20–30 minute walk-in crosses boggy moorland, which itself serves as a useful proxy: if the approach is waterlogged, the crag base will also be retaining moisture.
- Great Wanney's S/SW aspect and exposed moorland position make it one of the faster-drying Fell Sandstone crags, but 9.1mm of rain only three days ago with persistently high humidity limits that advantage.
- The escarpment's 10–20m height means lower sections will retain moisture longest — base-level routes and cracks will be the last to dry.
- Wind direction has shifted to NW/N over the last two dry days, meaning the S/SW-facing crag is somewhat sheltered from the prevailing breeze, reducing its normal drying advantage.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on Fell Sandstone that may still be internally wet — hold breakage causes permanent, irreversible damage to routes.
- The surface may appear dry while the interior remains saturated; visual dryness alone is not sufficient to confirm safe conditions.
Reasoning
9.1mm fell on August 19th and 1.5mm on August 20th, giving only two full dry days (Aug 21–22); with average humidity at 86% and temperatures around 11–15°C, internal moisture is almost certainly still present in this porous Fell Sandstone.
The S/SW aspect provides solar gain, but the recent wind has been from the N/NW — not directly onto the face — and wind speeds have been moderate (11–16 km/h), limiting evaporative drying; two days is well below the recommended 48–72+ hours needed after ~10mm of rain at high humidity.
Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% compressive strength when wet, and with likely internal saturation still above 1%, holds — particularly the iron-oxide-cemented features Great Wanney is known for — are at meaningful risk of breakage.
Late summer conditions are generally favourable for drying, but the recent spell of cool, humid weather (averaging only 11.6°C with 86% humidity) is performing well below summer norms and significantly slowing the drying process.
Contributing Factors
7
9.1mm on Aug 19 and 1.5mm on Aug 20 will have significantly wetted the porous sandstone, requiring 48–72+ hours of good drying conditions to clear.
Two consecutive dry days is at the absolute minimum of the community guideline and insufficient given the cool, humid conditions.
Average humidity of 86% over the last week severely limits evaporation rates, meaning the rock retains moisture far longer than in typical summer conditions.
Average temperature of only 11.6°C over the last week is well below summer norms, reducing evaporative energy and slowing drying.
The south/south-west facing aspect and exposed moorland setting maximise solar radiation and wind exposure, making this one of the faster-drying Fell Sandstone venues.
The last two days' N/NW winds do not blow directly onto the S/SW-facing crag, reducing the normal wind-drying advantage.
19.4mm in the last 7 days and 40.9mm over 28 days indicates persistently damp conditions with little opportunity for thorough drying.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least another 1–2 full dry days with humidity below 80% before visiting; ideally check again after August 24th if it stays dry.
- If you do walk in, check the ground at the crag base — if it is damp rather than sandy-dry, do not climb.
- Consider visiting a non-porous alternative such as a Whin Sill crag (e.g. Crag Lough, Peel Crag) which can be climbed safely in these conditions.
Do Not Climb
35%
60 days ago
Great Wanney received 9.1mm of rain on August 19th followed by 1.5mm on August 20th, with only one full dry day elapsed (today, August 21st). Despite the exposed S/SW aspect, high ambient humidity (~84–87%) and cool temperatures (~13°C) have severely limited drying, and the rock is very likely still damp internally.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The 9.1mm rainfall on August 19th is a near-heavy event for Fell Sandstone; combined with 6.9mm on August 17th and persistent moisture through the preceding weeks, cumulative saturation is a real concern.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting at 280m means the walk-in will be boggy, and ground moisture at the crag base is a useful proxy — if the ground is still damp, assume the rock is too.
- The S/SW aspect and exposed position are the crag's best drying assets, but northerly winds today and tomorrow reduce the benefit of aspect-driven solar warming on drying.
- The lower sections of the 10–20m escarpment will retain moisture longest due to gravitational drainage; upper pitches and overhanging features will dry first.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb today or tomorrow — the rock is almost certainly still wet internally despite any surface drying, risking permanent hold damage on this irreplaceable sandstone.
- The cumulative wetting pattern over recent weeks means even surfaces that appear dry may be saturated internally; use the ground-moisture test at the crag base as a minimum check.
Reasoning
With 9.1mm on the 19th, 1.5mm on the 20th, and only one dry day since, internal moisture levels in this porous Fell Sandstone are almost certainly still elevated well above the danger threshold.
One dry day with cool temperatures (13°C), high humidity (84–87%), and a northerly wind (which doesn't warm a S/SW face) provides far less drying than the minimum 48–72 hours of good conditions needed after near-10mm rainfall.
Hold breakage risk is elevated — Fell Sandstone loses up to 32% compressive strength on average when wet, and the small iron-oxide holds characteristic of Great Wanney are particularly vulnerable.
Late August conditions are deteriorating with shorter days and cooling temperatures; the recent pattern of repeated light-to-moderate rainfall events means the rock has rarely been fully dry for weeks.
Contributing Factors
7
9.1mm fell on August 19th followed by 1.5mm on August 20th, requiring a minimum 48–72 hours of good drying conditions that have not yet elapsed.
Only one dry day has passed since the last rain, far short of the two-day minimum even under ideal conditions.
Average humidity over the last 7 days is 85%, severely impeding evaporation from the rock surface and interior.
Temperatures averaging only 12°C over the past week significantly slow the drying process compared to warmer summer conditions.
Nearly 20mm in the last 7 days and 41mm in the last 28 days means the rock has had repeated wetting events with limited opportunity to fully dry between them.
The exposed moorland setting and south/south-west facing rock maximise wind and solar drying potential when conditions allow, but today's northerly wind reduces this benefit.
Today's and tomorrow's northerly/north-westerly winds mean the S/SW-facing rock is somewhat sheltered from the prevailing airflow, limiting wind-assisted drying.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least until August 24th (three full dry days) before considering a visit, and even then visually inspect the rock and check ground moisture at the crag base.
- If visiting later this week, focus on upper overhanging sections which will dry fastest and avoid lower slabs and seepage-prone areas.
- Monitor the forecast closely — the 16mm predicted for August 26th will reset drying time entirely, so plan any visit before that date if conditions allow.
Do Not Climb
92%
61 days ago
Great Wanney has received significant rainfall over the past few days — 9.0mm on Aug 19, 4.6mm today (Aug 20), plus 6.9mm on Aug 17 and 1.6mm on Aug 16 — totalling over 22mm in the last week with high humidity averaging 85%. The rock will be thoroughly saturated internally and needs multiple consecutive dry days with better drying conditions before it is safe to climb.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's 10–20m escarpment means lower sections will retain moisture longest as water drains downward through the porous sandstone, and base seepage is common after wet spells like this.
- The exposed moorland setting and S/SW aspect are excellent for drying when conditions allow, but the current northerly wind direction reduces the benefit of aspect-driven solar drying.
- The boggy approach across open moorland is a useful proxy indicator — if the walk-in ground is saturated (highly likely now), the crag rock will be wet internally too.
- The repeated wetting cycles over the past month (43.9mm in 28 days spread across many days) mean the sandstone has had little opportunity to dry out fully at depth, even during the brief dry spell around Aug 10–15.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on wet Fell Sandstone causes permanent, irreversible damage to holds and routes — the iron oxide features that define Great Wanney's climbing are especially fragile when the surrounding rock is weakened by moisture.
- The rock surface may appear dry before the interior has adequately dried — do not be deceived by surface appearance after only one dry day.
Reasoning
With 9.0mm on Aug 19 and 4.6mm falling today (much of it through the morning), plus 6.9mm on Aug 17, the Fell Sandstone will be near full saturation internally — well above the critical 1% threshold where significant weakening begins.
Today's rain continued through the morning with only a brief drier window in the early afternoon; the northerly wind offers less drying benefit on this S/SW-facing crag, and with humidity averaging 85% over the past week, meaningful drying has not yet begun.
At current saturation levels the sandstone faces an estimated 10–50% compressive strength reduction, making hold breakage a serious risk — the iron oxide holds that define many routes here are especially vulnerable when the surrounding matrix is weakened.
Mid-August temperatures are moderate (averaging ~13°C this week) but not warm enough to drive rapid evaporation, and the persistent high humidity has severely limited drying potential throughout this wet spell.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 22mm in the last 7 days across multiple events (9.0mm Aug 19, 4.6mm today, 6.9mm Aug 17) has kept the sandstone repeatedly saturated with no meaningful drying window.
Approximately 4.6mm has fallen or is forecast today, predominantly through the morning hours, resetting any drying progress from brief dry intervals.
Average humidity of 85% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying even during rain-free hours.
The current northerly wind blows onto the back of this S/SW-facing crag, reducing the wind-assisted drying benefit on the climbing face.
The open, exposed position at 280m means the crag will benefit from wind-driven drying once a sustained dry spell arrives, faster than sheltered lowland crags.
43.9mm over 28 days spread across many separate rain events means the rock has been repeatedly re-wetted at depth with few opportunities for thorough drying.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or tomorrow — the rock is saturated from ongoing and very recent rainfall and needs at least 48–72 hours of dry weather with lower humidity to begin approaching safe conditions.
- Check the moorland approach as a field indicator: if the ground is boggy and wet underfoot (very likely now), the crag rock will still be dangerously wet internally.
- The best window this week may be the afternoon of Aug 23 after two full dry days, but only if humidity drops and conditions allow thorough drying — visually assess for seepage and damp patches on the lower sections before committing.
Do Not Climb
90%
62 days ago
Great Wanney is currently wet and should not be climbed today. Rain fell overnight and through this morning (3mm total today), following 6.9mm on 17 Aug and further showers on the 18th — the rock has had no meaningful drying window and will be saturated internally despite any surface drying this afternoon.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The S/SW aspect and exposed moorland setting normally aid drying, but the northerly wind forecast for tomorrow (Aug 20) will not directly hit the south-facing rock, reducing its drying benefit.
- The walk-in across open moorland is boggy in wet conditions — if the approach is waterlogged, the crag base will also be damp, confirming internal rock moisture.
- Great Wanney's 10–20m faces mean the lower sections will hold moisture longest as water drains downward through the porous sandstone; base routes will be the last to dry.
- Cumulative rainfall over the past 28 days (33mm) with frequent small showers means the rock has rarely fully dried out — background saturation levels will be elevated.
Warnings
2
- Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet — holds can snap without warning, risking serious injury and permanent route damage.
- The rock surface may appear dry while the interior remains saturated; do not be deceived by surface appearance alone.
Reasoning
Rain today (3mm), yesterday (0.3mm), and a significant 6.9mm event on Aug 17 mean the Fell Sandstone is almost certainly saturated internally, with no consecutive dry day achieved since Aug 15.
Despite the S/SW aspect and exposed position, the rock has had zero full dry days since the 6.9mm event on the 17th; intermittent showers on the 18th and steady rain today have prevented any meaningful drying, and humidity has remained above 80% throughout.
With repeated wetting over recent days and no drying interval, the sandstone will have lost a significant proportion of its compressive strength (potentially 30%+), making hold breakage a real risk — climbing now would cause permanent damage.
Mid-August should offer reasonable drying potential, but this unsettled spell with below-average temperatures (~14–16°C) and high humidity (81% average over 7 days) is significantly slowing evaporation rates.
Contributing Factors
6
Approximately 3mm of rain has fallen today, with light showers continuing into the evening, keeping the rock surface wet.
There has not been a single fully dry day since the 6.9mm event on Aug 17, with trace-to-light precipitation on the 18th and today.
11.8mm in the last 7 days across multiple events means the rock has been repeatedly re-wetted before any drying could complete.
Average humidity of 81% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying even when rain pauses.
The south/south-west facing aspect and exposed moorland position will aid rapid drying once a sustained dry window arrives.
Winds of 14–20 km/h are forecast over coming days, which will help accelerate surface drying once precipitation stops.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is actively wet and internally saturated; any climbing risks permanent hold damage.
- Wait for at least 48 hours of dry weather with humidity below 80% before considering a visit; the earliest realistic window is Aug 22–23.
- On arrival, check the ground at the crag base and the approach bog — if these are still damp, the sandstone will be too wet to climb safely.
Do Not Climb
90%
63 days ago
Great Wanney received 9.7mm of rain over the past week, including 6.1mm yesterday (Aug 17) and 2.0mm of rain early this morning, with no meaningful drying interval between events. The rock will be thoroughly saturated internally and must not be climbed; further rain is forecast tomorrow and a heavy 18mm event on Aug 20, making the outlook poor for the coming days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The S/SW aspect and exposed moorland setting normally aid drying, but persistent cloud cover (100% today) negates solar drying benefit and the recent rain has been frequent enough to prevent any cumulative drying.
- The walk-in across open moorland will be boggy after the recent wet spell — if the ground at the crag base is damp, the rock is certainly still wet internally.
- Great Wanney's 10–20m escarpment means lower sections will retain moisture longest as water drains downward through the porous sandstone; even upper routes may still be damp given the repeated wetting cycle.
- The cumulative 31mm over the past 28 days with only brief dry interludes means the sandstone has had little opportunity to dry out fully at depth — internal saturation is likely well above the danger threshold.
Warnings
3
- Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet — climbing risks permanent hold breakage and irreversible route damage.
- The rock surface may appear dry later today as wind picks up, but internal saturation from repeated recent rain makes this deceptive and dangerous.
- The walk-in will be very boggy; if the moorland approach is waterlogged, treat this as confirmation that the crag is too wet to climb.
Reasoning
Rain fell yesterday (6.1mm), today (2.0mm early morning), and in multiple small events over the preceding week, meaning the porous Fell Sandstone is almost certainly saturated well above the critical 1% threshold internally despite any surface drying.
Although the exposed S/SW aspect and moderate wind (~24 km/h W) today would normally promote drying, 100% cloud cover eliminates direct solar input and the rock has had zero consecutive dry days — far short of the minimum 48–72 hours needed after the cumulative rainfall.
With internal saturation likely high from repeated wetting over the past fortnight, compressive strength could be reduced by 30%+ and iron-oxide cemented holds are at serious risk of breakage, causing both climber danger and permanent route damage.
Mid-summer temperatures (~15°C) are adequate for drying but the current unsettled weather pattern with frequent frontal rain and high humidity (78% 7-day average) is preventing the sustained dry spell needed for safe conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
6.1mm fell on Aug 17 and 2.0mm early this morning, ensuring the rock surface and interior are freshly wetted with zero consecutive dry days.
Over the past 10 days the crag has received rain on most days (9.1mm on Aug 4, 2.1mm on Aug 9, 1.6mm on Aug 16, 6.1mm on Aug 17, 2.0mm today), preventing any meaningful cumulative drying.
The 7-day average humidity of 78% and today's hourly readings (peaking at 99%) severely limit evaporative drying from the rock surface.
The S/SW aspect and exposed setting with 24 km/h westerly winds today would accelerate drying once rain stops, but this benefit cannot overcome the lack of a dry interval.
A major 18.2mm rainfall event is forecast for Aug 20 with further rain tomorrow (3.6mm), which will re-saturate any drying progress and extend unsafe conditions well into the week.
100% cloud cover throughout today eliminates direct solar radiation on the S/SW face, removing one of the crag's key drying advantages.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or in the coming days — the sandstone is wet internally and conditions are unsafe; wait for a sustained dry spell of at least 48–72 hours after the last rain.
- Monitor the forecast beyond Aug 23 for a potential drying window; the crag will need at least two full dry days with wind and sun after the heavy Aug 20 rain before conditions can be reassessed.
- If visiting the area, consider alternative non-porous venues such as the Whin Sill crags (e.g. Crag Lough, Peel Crag) which are far more tolerant of damp conditions.
Do Not Climb
92%
64 days ago
Great Wanney has received frequent light-to-moderate rainfall over the past two weeks with no sustained dry spell, and today brings 7.3mm of rain — mostly falling this evening — with a further 16.8mm forecast over the next five days. The rock will be saturated and conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing on this porous Fell Sandstone.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Great Wanney's exposed moorland setting at 280m means the walk-in is boggy after prolonged wet weather — if the approach is waterlogged, the rock is certainly still holding moisture internally.
- The crag's S/SW aspect and exposed position normally aid drying, but the persistent high humidity (averaging 76–86% recently) and frequent light showers negate much of this advantage.
- The 10–20m escarpment means lower sections will retain moisture longest as water drains downward through the porous sandstone; base routes will be the last to dry.
- The recent pattern of repeated wetting events (9.1mm on Aug 4, 2.1mm on Aug 9, 0.9mm on Aug 16, 7.3mm today) means the rock has never fully dried out — cumulative saturation is the key concern here.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on wet Fell Sandstone causes permanent, irreversible damage to holds and route integrity — do not climb even if the surface appears dry after a brief pause in rain.
- The approach across open moorland will be very boggy; if the ground is waterlogged at the crag base, the rock is certainly too wet to climb.
Reasoning
The rock has been repeatedly wetted over the past two weeks with no dry spell longer than 4–5 days, and today's 7.3mm event re-saturates the sandstone significantly — internal moisture levels will be dangerously high.
Although the S/SW aspect and exposed position would normally promote good drying, the persistent humidity (75–90%), frequent showers, and moderate temperatures (~15°C) have prevented the rock from drying out between rain events.
With cumulative saturation from repeated wetting and no adequate drying window, compressive strength will be significantly reduced (potentially 30%+), making hold breakage a real risk on these iron-oxide-cemented holds.
Mid-August should be peak season but this has been an unusually unsettled spell; temperatures are below average for summer and the pattern shows no sign of the sustained dry, warm weather needed to properly dry out the crag.
Contributing Factors
6
7.3mm of precipitation today, with the bulk (6.7mm) falling as heavy showers from 19:00 onwards, will thoroughly re-saturate the rock surface and interior.
29.7mm over the past 28 days with no dry spell exceeding 5 days means the sandstone has had no opportunity to dry out internally.
A further 16.8mm is forecast over the next 5 days including 10.8mm on August 20, preventing any meaningful drying.
Average humidity of 76–86% over recent days severely limits evaporative drying even when precipitation pauses.
The south/south-west facing aspect and exposed moorland position provide the best possible drying conditions when dry weather does arrive.
Temperatures around 14–18°C are adequate for drying but not exceptional; cooler than ideal for rapid evaporation of deeply absorbed moisture.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Great Wanney today or in the coming days — the rock is saturated and the forecast offers no adequate drying window until at least August 23.
- Monitor conditions from August 22–23 onwards; if the dry spell materialises and extends with low humidity, the crag may begin to come into condition after 48+ hours of dry weather.
- If you are in the area and keen to climb, consider non-porous alternatives such as whinstone crags (e.g. Crag Lough on the Whin Sill) which can be climbed sooner after rain, though surface grip should still be checked.
Do Not Climb
90%
65 days ago
Great Wanney received 2mm of rain today and the forecast shows significant rainfall over the next three days (7.4mm, 3.9mm, 7.2mm), making conditions clearly unsuitable now and for most of the coming week. The earliest potential window is August 21st after two dry days, but cumulative moisture from the preceding wet spell will require careful assessment.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The S/SW aspect and exposed moorland setting normally aid drying, but the persistent high humidity (85%+) and repeated light wetting events through late July and early August mean the rock has had little chance to dry out internally despite surface appearances.
- The 20–30 minute walk-in crosses boggy moorland — if the approach is waterlogged, the crag base will also be wet, which is a reliable proxy for internal rock moisture in Fell Sandstone.
- The crag had a genuinely dry spell from August 10–15 (six consecutive dry days with warm temperatures up to 27.8°C and dropping humidity to 63%), which would have dried the rock well, but today's rain and the incoming wet spell reset that progress.
- Seepage can persist at the base of the 10–20m escarpment for days after rain as water drains through the porous sandstone from the moorland above.
Warnings
2
- Fell Sandstone loses up to 50% of its compressive strength when wet — climbing on damp rock risks permanent hold breakage and irreversible route damage.
- The rock surface may appear dry while remaining saturated internally; do not rely on visual assessment alone — check the crag base and touch-test the rock in sheltered spots.
Reasoning
Today's 2mm of rain on the S/SW-facing crag has re-wetted surface rock, and with 85% humidity there will be minimal evaporation through the rest of the day.
The excellent drying window of August 10–15 (six dry days, warm temps, low humidity, moderate wind) would have dried the rock thoroughly, but today's rain and forecast heavy rain tomorrow (7.4mm) and over the next three days completely reset the drying clock.
The cumulative rainfall forecast of nearly 20mm over the next four days will saturate the porous Fell Sandstone, creating significant risk of hold breakage and grain loosening if climbed on prematurely.
Mid-August temperatures remain adequate for drying (11–17°C forecast), but the incoming Atlantic weather system brings high humidity (83–92%) that will significantly slow any drying between showers.
Contributing Factors
5
2mm today followed by 7.4mm, 3.9mm, and 7.2mm over the next three days means the rock will be thoroughly wetted with no drying opportunity until August 20th at the earliest.
Humidity remains at 83–92% through August 19th, severely limiting evaporation even during dry intervals between showers.
The south/south-west facing, exposed moorland setting will maximise drying once the rain stops, especially with forecast winds of 21–31 km/h.
The past 28 days have seen 23.5mm of rain spread across many small events, and a further 19.7mm is forecast, meaning the sandstone has been repeatedly re-wetted throughout the period.
The six-day dry spell from August 10–15 with temperatures up to 27.8°C and humidity as low as 63% would have dried the rock well, but today's rain negates that benefit.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or during the incoming wet spell (August 17–19); wait for at least 48 hours of dry weather after the last rainfall.
- The earliest realistic window is August 21st — check conditions on arrival by feeling the crag base; if the ground is damp rather than sandy-dry, the rock is still wet internally.
- If visiting on August 21st or 22nd, prioritise the upper sections and any overhanging lines which will have dried fastest, and avoid slab routes and lower sections where moisture lingers.
Climbing Outlook