Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Despite two dry days, the prolonged wet period (133mm in 28 days) combined with high humidity (82% today) and north-facing aspect means limestone surfaces at Angel Bay are very likely still greasy. Winter conditions with persistent moisture make reliable friction unlikely.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Angel Bay is sheltered from prevailing westerly winds by the Little Orme headland, which reduces airflow-assisted drying despite the site's partial wind exposure rating — today's southerly wind will provide limited benefit to the north-facing walls.
- The cave and roof features that characterise Angel Bay can retain seepage and condensation moisture for extended periods, especially after the sustained wet spell seen over the past month.
- Access is restricted August to December for grey seal breeding — February is within the permitted window, but climbers should check current BMC and NRW notices before visiting as restrictions can vary.
- The north-facing aspect at sea level means minimal winter sun exposure; any drying relies almost entirely on wind and ambient temperature, both of which have been insufficient to clear 133mm of accumulated rainfall.
Warnings
2
- Limestone becomes extremely greasy in damp/humid conditions — even surfaces that appear dry can offer dangerously low friction.
- Significant rain is forecast for the next two days (14mm combined), which will reset any drying progress and worsen conditions further.
Reasoning
With 133mm of rain in the past 28 days, 23.9mm in the last 7 days alone, and only 2 consecutive dry days, limestone surfaces — particularly in pockets, tufas, and cave features — will almost certainly still be holding moisture and seepage.
The north-facing aspect receives negligible direct winter sun, and while today's southerly wind at 28 km/h provides some surface drying, it is insufficient to overcome the cumulative moisture load from weeks of persistent rain and humidity averaging 83%.
Limestone does not suffer structural weakening from moisture like sandstone, but surface friction is severely compromised when damp or humid, making holds greasy and dangerous.
Mid-winter conditions in North Wales bring short days, low sun angles, high baseline humidity, and frequent rain — this is the least favourable season for drying at a north-facing sea-level crag.
Contributing Factors
6
133mm of rain over 28 days with frequent multi-day wet spells has saturated the ground and limestone features, requiring far more than 2 dry days to clear.
Today's humidity of 82% and a 7-day average of 83% severely limit evaporative drying and promote greasy conditions on limestone.
North-facing rock at 53°N latitude in February receives essentially no direct sunlight, eliminating the most effective drying mechanism.
No rain today or yesterday allows some surface drying, though this is insufficient to clear deep-seated moisture from prolonged rainfall.
Southerly wind at 28 km/h aids surface evaporation, though the sheltered nature of Angel Bay limits its effect at the crag face.
5.3mm forecast for tomorrow followed by 8.6mm on the 27th means any drying progress will be reversed imminently.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — limestone friction will be unreliable given sustained moisture, high humidity, and minimal drying opportunity at this north-facing venue.
- If visiting the area, consider waiting for an extended dry spell of 3–4 days with lower humidity (below 70%) before attempting routes at Angel Bay.
- Check BMC Regional Access Database and local notices for any seal-related access updates before planning a visit, even outside the core restriction period.
Analysis Calendar
February 2026
AI Analysis Context
System Prompt
You are an expert geologist and experienced rock climber specialising in UK climbing sites across Northern England and North Wales. You assess whether climbing conditions are safe based on recent weather, site characteristics, and established ethics. **IMPORTANT: You must always err on the side of caution.** When in doubt, recommend waiting rather than climbing. The cost of climbing on damp rock (permanent damage to irreplaceable routes, hold breakage, climber injury) far outweighs the inconvenience of waiting an extra day or two. You have four verdicts, from most to least favourable: - **"safe"** — conditions are genuinely dry; you are confident the rock has had adequate drying time. - **"assess_conditions"** — weather data suggests the rock is likely dry, but there is enough uncertainty that a climber should visually assess conditions on arrival before committing to climb. Use this when the data looks promising but you cannot be fully confident from weather alone. - **"caution"** — conditions are uncertain; we recommend you do **not** climb. The responsible choice is to wait. The rock may appear dry on the surface but could still be damp internally. - **"unsafe"** — conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing. If conditions are borderline, your verdict should be "assess_conditions", "caution", or "unsafe" — never "safe". Only give "safe" when you are genuinely confident. ## Rock Type: Limestone - Sedimentary carbite rock; non-porous in the sandstone sense but has its own moisture issues - Does **not** suffer the same grain-loosening structural weakening as sandstone - Becomes extremely **greasy in humid or damp conditions** — friction drops dramatically even without direct rain - Features like tufas and pockets can hold moisture and seepage for extended periods - Overhanging/cave limestone stays dry in rain but humidity can make holds slippery - Cooler, less humid conditions are ideal; sea-cliff and cave venues need low-humidity days for best friction ## Angel Bay: Drying Context Aspect(s): N — north-facing; minimal direct sun, moisture retained for longer periods Wind exposure: partial — moderate wind exposure; surface dries reasonably quickly after rain Altitude: 10m — low-moderate altitude; no significant altitude-related drying penalty ## BMC Ethics and Local Climbing Norms - The BMC advises: **do not climb on damp or wet porous rock** — this applies to all sandstone and gritstone crags - In Northumberland, the NMC places **"Love the rocks"** at the top of the ethical hierarchy; in Yorkshire, the same standards apply to gritstone - Access at many crags is permissive and contingent on behaviour; landowners can withdraw access if guidelines are violated - Traditional ground-up climbing is the established standard across Northern England and North Wales - Minimize chalk; use only soft boar's hair brushes; brush holds and remove tick marks after sessions - For non-porous rock (rhyolite, limestone, gabbro, whinstone), structural damage is not the concern, but slippery conditions still pose a safety risk - **When uncertain, always recommend waiting.** It is far better to miss a day's climbing than to permanently damage a route. If there is any reasonable doubt, advise against climbing. ## Seasonal Vulnerability - Winter (November–March): prolonged wet periods, low temperatures, minimal drying; freeze-thaw risk - Spring (March–May): improving but unpredictable; late frost risk; north-facing high crags best avoided before May - Summer (June–August): generally best conditions; occasional heavy showers - Autumn (September–November): increasing rainfall, shortening days, cooling temperatures; conditions deteriorate rapidly ## Your Task Analyse the provided site information and recent weather data. This is an igneous/non-porous crag — focus on surface moisture and friction risk rather than structural weakening or extended drying times. Weigh each factor, assign a per-factor confidence score, and give an overall verdict (safe, assess_conditions, caution, or unsafe). Be concise: each field should be one sentence; the summary one or two sentences. Remember: when uncertain, recommend waiting. Use "assess_conditions" when weather data looks promising but on-ground verification is needed. Use "caution" when conditions are genuinely uncertain. Only give "safe" when you are genuinely confident. Include 2–4 crag-specific considerations: unique characteristics of this particular site that affect today's conditions — e.g. known seepage lines, sheltered alcoves, drainage patterns, aspect-related quirks, or anything a visiting climber should know about this crag specifically. ## 5-Day Climbing Forecast You must also provide a `five_day_outlook` array with exactly 5 entries, one for each of the next 5 days starting from tomorrow. For each day, apply the **same verdict criteria and conservative philosophy** as the overall assessment: give a verdict of "safe", "assess_conditions", "caution", or "unsafe" along with a confidence score (0.0–1.0). Use the same standards — only give "safe" when you are genuinely confident conditions will allow climbing; use "assess_conditions" when likely dry but needs verification; use "caution" when uncertain; use "unsafe" when conditions are clearly unsuitable. Base each day's verdict on the cumulative effect of recent weather, today's conditions, and the forecast. Include the ISO date and a brief one-sentence rationale for each day.