Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Raven Crag has had five consecutive dry days with good sun exposure on Aug 11–13 (up to 25°C), and the south-facing volcanic rock will have dried thoroughly. Today's conditions look good for climbing, though humidity is elevated and deterioration is forecast from tomorrow onwards.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The left side of the crag has known seepage lines that can persist after heavy rain — the wet spell of Aug 4–9 (total ~26mm) may still feed minor seepage in these areas despite five dry days.
- The south/SE aspect received excellent solar radiation during the warm spell of Aug 11–13 (21–25°C), which will have driven rapid surface drying across most of the crag.
- At 280m, low cloud can engulf the crag even when the valley floor is clear — today's 83% humidity and westerly airflow could bring intermittent mist that dampens rock surfaces.
- The forecast shows significant rain arriving Aug 17–18 (~20mm), so today and possibly tomorrow represent the last good window before another wet spell.
Warnings
1
- Low cloud may develop at crag height despite clear valley conditions — retreat if the rock becomes damp from mist.
Reasoning
Five consecutive dry days including three warm, sunny days (up to 25°C) on non-porous volcanic rock with a south-facing aspect mean the surface should be thoroughly dry across most of the crag.
The combination of strong solar radiation on the S/SE aspect, moderate winds (11–16 km/h), and warm temperatures over Aug 11–13 will have evaporated surface moisture rapidly; even persistent seepage lines should have largely dried.
Rhyolite/BVS rock is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so there is no hold-breakage risk from the recent wet period.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long daylight hours and generally the best drying conditions of the year, though the Lake District remains prone to Atlantic weather systems bringing frequent rain.
Contributing Factors
5
No rain since Aug 9, giving ample time for non-porous volcanic rock to dry completely on its south-facing aspect.
Temperatures reaching 25°C with lower humidity (64-73%) and southerly winds provided excellent drying conditions.
Today's 83% humidity with westerly wind may slow further drying but is unlikely to re-wet already dry rock.
The S/SE aspect maximises solar gain throughout the day, making Raven Crag one of the fastest-drying mountain crags in the Lakes.
Significant rainfall of ~20mm is forecast for Aug 17–18, which will end the current dry window and require fresh drying time.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today or early tomorrow to take advantage of the current dry window before rain arrives on Aug 17.
- Check the left side of the crag for residual seepage before committing to routes in that area.
- Monitor cloud levels during your session — if mist rolls in at crag height, friction will drop rapidly on the volcanic rock.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
88%
2 days ago
Raven Crag has had four consecutive dry days following light rain on August 9th (5mm), with warm sunny conditions today reaching nearly 25°C on a south-facing aspect — the rock should be thoroughly dry. Today offers an excellent climbing window before conditions deteriorate from tomorrow onwards.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Known seepage lines on the left side of the crag may still be damp from the unsettled period earlier in August, even though main faces should be dry.
- The south/SE aspect has been receiving strong summer sun during this dry spell, significantly accelerating surface drying on the main buttresses.
- Cloud base may sit at or below crag height (280m) during the forecast deterioration from August 15th onwards — check valley conditions before committing to multi-pitch routes.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll makes it feasible to inspect conditions and retreat quickly if the crag is unexpectedly damp.
Warnings
2
- Heavy rain (19mm) is forecast for August 17th — do not rely on climbing that day.
- Some cloud cover at 100% is forecast mid-afternoon today (12:00–13:00 and 16:00–17:00); if cloud sits at crag height, conditions may feel damp even without rain.
Reasoning
Four fully dry days with warm temperatures (up to 25°C) and moderate wind on non-porous volcanic rock mean the main faces should be completely dry, though persistent seepage lines on the left side may retain some moisture from the wet period earlier in August.
The south-facing aspect has received excellent solar radiation during this dry spell, and moderate westerly winds have aided evaporation — non-porous BVS rhyolite dries within hours of rain in these conditions, and four days is more than adequate.
No structural risk — Borrowdale Volcanic rock is non-porous and does not weaken when wet; the only concern is friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long daylight hours and warm temperatures, providing ideal conditions for multi-pitch mountain crag climbing.
Contributing Factors
6
No rain since 5mm on August 9th, giving ample drying time for non-porous volcanic rock.
Clear skies and temperatures near 25°C on a south-facing crag provide excellent drying conditions.
Westerly winds around 15 km/h provide good airflow across the partially exposed crag face.
Over 46mm of rain in the last 28 days means deeper seepage lines and drainage channels may still be active.
Humidity climbs above 80% after 9pm, but afternoon conditions (51–58%) are excellent for friction.
Forecast shows increasing cloud, humidity, and rain returning from August 15th with heavy rain (19mm) on August 17th.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today if possible — this is the best window before conditions deteriorate; aim for the afternoon when humidity is lowest (around 51–55%).
- Avoid routes on the left side of the crag where known seepage lines may still be active from recent wet weather.
- Be prepared for the weather to change from tomorrow — if planning a multi-day trip, today is significantly better than the coming days.
Likely Safe to Climb
88%
3 days ago
Raven Crag has had three consecutive dry days with today being warm, sunny, and breezy — ideal drying conditions for this south-facing volcanic crag. The non-porous BVS rock should be thoroughly dry on the main face, though residual seepage on the left side is possible given the wet spell earlier in the week.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The left side of the crag has known seepage lines that can persist for several days after heavy rain — the 10mm on Aug 4 and subsequent wet days mean these should be checked visually.
- The south/SE aspect and today's clearing skies with temperatures reaching 25°C provide excellent solar drying, making the main buttresses the best bet.
- Cloud base can drop below crag level (280m) even when the valley is clear — today's morning cloud is breaking up nicely but worth monitoring.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll means you can easily retreat if conditions are worse than expected at the crag.
Warnings
1
- Seepage lines on the left side of the crag may still be damp — test friction carefully before committing to routes in that area.
Reasoning
Three fully dry days (Aug 10–12) following light rain on Aug 9 (5mm), with warm temperatures and moderate wind, should have fully dried the non-porous volcanic rock surface on the main face.
The south-facing aspect has received strong solar radiation today (up to 25°C with clearing skies from late morning), and moderate westerly winds over the preceding days have aided evaporation considerably.
Non-porous Borrowdale Volcanic rock does not absorb water and is not at risk of structural weakening or hold breakage from recent rainfall.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long daylight hours and warm temperatures — optimal conditions for Lake District mountain cragging.
Contributing Factors
6
No precipitation since Aug 9 (5mm), giving ample time for the non-porous rock surface to dry completely.
Temperatures reaching 25°C with clearing skies and low humidity (47–50%) from mid-afternoon provide excellent final drying.
The S/SE aspect maximises solar heating throughout the day, accelerating surface evaporation.
Cumulative rainfall of ~27mm over Aug 4–9 may sustain seepage lines on the left side of the crag despite surface drying.
Partial wind exposure with ~10 km/h easterly breeze today assists airflow across the rock face.
The 78% average humidity over the last week has slowed drying somewhat, but today's drop to the 50s% range offsets this.
Recommendations
3
- Climb this afternoon for the best conditions — sunny skies, low humidity, and warm rock from midday onwards.
- Avoid routes on the left side of the crag where seepage lines are known to persist; focus on the main buttresses which dry fastest.
- Be prepared for a potential weather change tomorrow — a trace of rain is forecast and conditions deteriorate significantly from Aug 16.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
5 days ago
Yesterday's 4.6mm rain followed by a dry day today with moderate sun and wind should allow the south-facing volcanic rock to dry through the afternoon, but persistent high humidity (84% average over the past week) and recent repeated wet spells mean some seepage lines may linger. Conditions are likely climbable by mid-afternoon but a visual check on arrival is essential.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The left side of the crag has known seepage lines that can persist for days after the repeated rain events seen over the past two weeks (nearly 46mm in 28 days).
- The south/south-east aspect is catching sun from late morning today with humidity dropping to the mid-50s by mid-afternoon, which favours rapid surface drying on the exposed faces.
- Low cloud cover is forecast to increase through the late afternoon (100% by 16:00–19:00), which could deposit moisture on the rock surface and reduce effective drying time.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll means climbers can easily retreat if conditions are worse than expected — a significant advantage given the current uncertainty.
Warnings
2
- Seepage lines on the left side of the crag may remain wet and slippery despite surface drying elsewhere — do not assume uniform conditions across the entire face.
- Cloud base may drop to crag level during the late afternoon; be prepared for sudden visibility reduction and moisture deposition on multi-pitch routes.
Reasoning
The rock received 4.6mm of rain yesterday (Aug 9) and has had roughly 24 hours of drying by this afternoon, but the preceding two weeks have been persistently unsettled with frequent rain totalling ~26mm in the last 7 days alone, keeping ambient humidity very high.
The south-facing aspect is receiving direct sun today with humidity dropping to ~55% and light winds (~10 km/h) by mid-afternoon, which should clear surface moisture from exposed faces within a few hours, though sheltered areas and seepage lines will take longer.
Non-porous Borrowdale Volcanic rhyolite does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern — the risk is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with long daylight hours and reasonable temperatures, though August in the Lake District is prone to Atlantic frontal systems as evidenced by the recent unsettled spell.
Contributing Factors
6
4.6mm fell on Aug 9 with only one dry day since, and the preceding fortnight saw repeated rain events keeping the crag intermittently wet.
The S/SE aspect receives strong direct sun through the middle of the day today, with humidity dropping to the mid-50s by afternoon — ideal for surface evaporation on non-porous rock.
The 7-day average humidity is 84% and overnight humidity reached 90%, slowing evaporation and potentially causing condensation on cool rock surfaces.
NW winds at 10–13 km/h today provide supplementary drying airflow across the partially exposed crag face.
Cloud cover is forecast to reach 100% from 16:00–20:00, reducing solar drying and potentially introducing low-level moisture to the crag.
Borrowdale Volcanic rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture needs to evaporate for friction to return.
Recommendations
3
- Target the mid-afternoon window (roughly 13:00–16:00) when humidity is lowest and sun exposure has been working on the rock for several hours.
- Avoid the left side of the crag where known seepage lines may still be active after the recent prolonged wet spell.
- Carry a towel and test friction carefully on the first few moves — if the rock feels greasy or polished, back off and wait for tomorrow's warmer, drier forecast.
Do Not Climb
40%
5 days ago
Today saw nearly 5mm of rain with high humidity (88%), and the crag has experienced a persistently wet spell over the past two weeks with 26.7mm in the last 7 days alone. While rhyolite dries relatively quickly and the south-facing aspect helps, the rock is almost certainly still damp on the surface today, and residual seepage lines are likely active given the cumulative recent rainfall.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The left side of the crag has known seepage lines that persist after heavy rain — these will likely be running given the 46mm of rain over the past month and the particularly wet last fortnight.
- The south/SE aspect and 280m altitude mean the crag catches sun for most of the day and dries faster than many Lakes crags, but today's rain, high humidity, and westerly wind limit drying potential.
- Low cloud frequently affects this crag even when the Langdale valley floor is clear — with 88% humidity and recent frontal weather, cloud sitting on the crag is a real possibility today and tomorrow morning.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll makes it easy to walk up, assess conditions, and retreat without a major time commitment if the rock is damp.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb today — the crag received nearly 5mm of rain and friction on wet rhyolite is dangerously poor, especially on multi-pitch trad routes where a slip has serious consequences.
- Low cloud may envelop the crag without warning given the high humidity; be prepared for sudden visibility loss on multi-pitch routes.
Reasoning
With 4.9mm of rain today, 7.3mm two days ago, and 10mm four days ago — all amid persistently high humidity (82–90%) — the rock surface is almost certainly wet or damp right now, with seepage lines actively running.
The south-facing aspect and moderate westerly wind (23 km/h) would normally dry non-porous rhyolite within hours, but ongoing high humidity (88%) and lack of strong sun today severely limit evaporation, and the cumulative wet spell means seepage will take longer to clear.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage or rock damage is not a concern.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable for drying, but this August has been notably unsettled with frequent rain; the recent pattern resembles a prolonged frontal spell rather than typical summer showers.
Contributing Factors
6
4.9mm fell today on top of a very wet fortnight (26.7mm in 7 days, 46.1mm in 28 days), meaning the rock surface is wet and seepage lines are charged.
Humidity has averaged 82% over the past week and is 88% today, significantly slowing surface evaporation even on non-porous rock.
The S/SE aspect receives good solar radiation when the sun breaks through, which will help dry surface moisture quickly once conditions improve.
Partial wind exposure with 23 km/h westerly today aids surface drying, though high humidity reduces its effectiveness.
Borrowdale Volcanic rock does not absorb water, so only surface moisture and seepage need to clear — no multi-day drying period required.
Tomorrow (Aug 10) is forecast dry with dropping humidity (73%) and lighter winds, which should allow meaningful drying through the day.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until tomorrow (Aug 10) at the earliest — allow the rain from today to clear and give the south-facing rock a full morning of sun and breeze before attempting routes.
- On arrival, check the known seepage lines on the left side of the crag carefully; these may still be damp even when the main face appears dry.
- The best window this week appears to be the afternoon of Aug 11 when warmer temperatures (22°C), southerly wind, and cumulative drying should have the main face in good condition.
Do Not Climb
45%
6 days ago
Despite today being dry, Raven Crag has seen repeated rain events over the past two weeks (21.8mm in the last 7 days alone), with only one consecutive dry day so far and high ambient humidity averaging 80%. While the south-facing volcanic rock dries relatively quickly, seepage lines on the left side of the crag are very likely still active, and tomorrow's forecast of nearly 9mm will reset any drying progress.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Known seepage lines on the left side of the crag will almost certainly be running after the repeated rain of the past two weeks, even though today is dry.
- The south/SE aspect and 280m altitude mean the main face catches good sun and should dry surface moisture within hours on a clear day, but persistent high humidity (78–90%) is slowing evaporation.
- Low cloud frequently affects this crag even when the valley floor is clear — at 280m with humidity around 78–90%, cloud immersion is a real possibility and would prevent effective drying.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll means rapid retreat is feasible if conditions deteriorate, which is an advantage given the unsettled forecast.
Warnings
2
- Friction on Borrowdale Volcanic rock drops significantly when damp — even a thin film of moisture can make slabs and friction moves treacherous on multi-pitch routes.
- Seepage lines on the left side of the crag are very likely active and may affect popular routes.
Reasoning
With 21.8mm of rain in the past week including events on Aug 4 (10mm), Aug 5 (7.3mm), Aug 6 (2.8mm), and Aug 7 (1.1mm), the rock surface has had only one dry day to shed moisture, and seepage lines will still be flowing.
Today's dry conditions with moderate SW wind (20.9 km/h) and south-facing aspect will help surface drying, but a single day is insufficient to clear seepage lines fed by the recent heavy and prolonged rainfall, especially with 78% humidity limiting evaporation.
Non-porous Borrowdale Volcanic rock does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Mid-summer provides the best available drying conditions with long daylight hours and reasonable solar angles, but this has been an unusually wet and cool spell for August with temperatures well below seasonal norms.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 21mm in the past 7 days across multiple events (Aug 4–7), with the heaviest single day being 10mm on Aug 4, means moisture is widespread across the crag.
Just one consecutive dry day is insufficient to clear seepage lines and sheltered dampness, even on south-facing non-porous rock.
Average humidity of 80% over the past week significantly slows evaporation and can keep rock surfaces feeling damp even without direct rain.
The S/SE aspect catches good summer sun and today's moderate SW wind (20.9 km/h) aids surface drying on exposed sections.
8.9mm forecast for Aug 9 will completely reset drying progress and re-saturate seepage lines.
Borrowdale Volcanic rhyolite does not absorb water, so surface moisture is the only concern and it dries faster than porous alternatives.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for the rain on Aug 9 to pass and allow at least one full dry day with sun before climbing — Aug 11 or 12 look most promising.
- If visiting today, visually inspect the rock surface and especially the seepage lines on the left side of the crag before committing to any route.
- Prioritise routes on the right side of the crag and on prominent arêtes/buttresses that catch the most wind and sun, as these will dry fastest.
Do Not Climb
35%
7 days ago
Raven Crag has endured a prolonged wet spell with over 22mm in the last 7 days, including 10mm on August 4th alone, and today has seen further light rain (0.7mm) with high humidity (82%). Although the rock is non-porous and the south-facing aspect aids drying, there has been no meaningful dry window to clear surface moisture and seepage lines will be active.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The left side of the crag has known seepage lines that will almost certainly be running after the sustained rainfall of the past two weeks, making routes on that side of the crag particularly unsuitable.
- Despite the south-facing aspect, temperatures have been well below the summer average (13–15°C) and humidity persistently above 80%, significantly reducing the crag's usually impressive drying speed.
- Low cloud is likely at 280m in the current high-humidity westerly airstream, which can keep the crag damp even when the Langdale valley floor appears dry.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll means conditions can be assessed quickly without a long commitment — worth a look on the next dry day but be prepared to walk away.
Warnings
2
- Friction on BVS rock is dramatically reduced when damp — falls on friction-dependent routes like Bilberry Buttress are a serious risk if the rock is not fully dry.
- Low cloud may envelop the crag at 280m even when the valley is clear, creating unexpectedly damp and slippery conditions mid-route.
Reasoning
The rock is very likely wet on the surface: today recorded 0.7mm of rain with 82% humidity, following 22mm over the past week with no consecutive dry days, so there has been no opportunity for the crag to dry out.
Although the S/SE aspect and moderate wind exposure normally promote fast drying on this non-porous volcanic rock, the persistent cloud, high humidity (~80%), and cool temperatures (~14°C) have severely limited evaporative drying potential over the past fortnight.
Rhyolite/BVS rock does not absorb water and is not at risk of structural damage, but friction is significantly compromised on damp surfaces, making the friction-dependent slab and wall routes dangerous.
Mid-summer should offer the best drying conditions, but this spell of cool, humid, unsettled weather has been atypically poor for August and has kept the crag in marginal condition far longer than a brief summer shower would.
Contributing Factors
7
Over 22mm in the past 7 days across multiple rain events with no consecutive dry days means the crag has had no chance to fully dry.
Humidity has averaged 80% over the past week, drastically slowing surface evaporation even on non-porous rock.
Average temperature of just 13.8°C over the last week is well below the summer norm, further reducing drying rates.
The S/SE aspect maximises solar exposure and would promote rapid drying if a clear, dry window materialises.
Today's 0.7mm of rain resets any drying progress and confirms the crag surface is currently damp.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture needs to evaporate — recovery will be quick once dry weather arrives.
After two weeks of regular rain totalling over 40mm, known seepage lines on the left side of the crag are almost certainly running.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for at least one full dry day with lower humidity (<75%) before visiting — tomorrow (August 8th) looks like the first possible window but check the forecast carefully.
- If visiting after a dry spell, inspect the left side of the crag carefully for active seepage before committing to routes in that area.
- Prioritise routes on the right and central buttresses which drain better, and be prepared to retreat if the rock feels greasy underfoot on the approach slabs.
Do Not Climb
35%
9 days ago
Recent days have brought repeated rain (nearly 25mm in the last week alone) with high humidity and cool temperatures, leaving the crag unlikely to be fully dry. While the afternoon today clears up and the south aspect helps, persistent moisture from the last 10+ days of unsettled weather means seepage lines and damp patches are very likely, and friction on the volcanic rock will be compromised.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The left side of the crag has known seepage lines that persist well after heavy rain — with 25mm in the past week these will almost certainly be running.
- At 280m altitude the crag can sit in low cloud even when the valley is clear; today's hourly data shows 100% cloud cover through the morning, likely keeping the rock damp.
- The south/SE aspect and partial wind exposure are the crag's best drying assets, but recent humidity averaging 80% and cool temperatures (~14°C) severely limit evaporative drying.
- Multi-pitch trad routes here (Bilberry Buttress, Centipede, Pluto) rely heavily on friction — even slight residual dampness on BVS rock dramatically reduces grip on the sustained slabby sections.
Warnings
2
- Multi-pitch routes will be slippery — friction-dependent slabs and cracks on BVS rock are dangerous when damp, and leader falls on traditional gear at this crag can be serious.
- Seepage lines on the left side of the crag are almost certainly active after 25mm of rain this week; avoid routes in that area entirely.
Reasoning
With 25mm of rain in the past 7 days, 1mm today, scattered showers on most recent days, and humidity consistently around 80–90%, the rock surface is very likely damp with active seepage on the left side of the crag.
Despite the south-facing aspect, the combination of persistent cloud cover (100% through this morning), cool temperatures (10–14°C), and high humidity has provided very limited drying opportunity since the last significant rain on Aug 4–5 (17mm combined).
BVS rhyolite is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage from moisture; the concern is purely friction loss on wet surfaces.
Mid-summer should offer the best drying conditions, but this spell of Atlantic weather with westerly winds and repeated frontal rain is unusually persistent and has kept conditions poor for over a week.
Contributing Factors
8
Nearly 25mm in the past 7 days across multiple events (including 10mm on Aug 4 and 7.3mm on Aug 5), with no meaningful dry spell to allow thorough drying.
Average humidity of 80% over the past week severely inhibits evaporative drying, keeping surfaces damp even between rain events.
Average temps around 14°C with maxima only 15–18°C at 280m provide weak thermal drying compared to summer norms.
Today's hourly data shows 100% cloud through mid-morning at crag height, blocking the solar radiation that this south-facing crag relies on for drying.
From midday today, cloud drops to 60–70% with no further precipitation forecast, offering a partial drying window through the afternoon.
Sustained winds of 15–25 km/h from the west provide some air movement across the partially exposed crag, aiding surface evaporation.
The S/SE aspect maximises any available solar heating, which will help once cloud breaks, but this advantage has been largely negated by recent overcast conditions.
BVS rhyolite does not absorb water so there is no risk of structural damage; only surface friction is affected.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for at least 24 hours of dry, breezy weather with broken cloud or sunshine before committing to routes — conditions are not there yet.
- If visiting tomorrow or the next day, check seepage lines on the left side of the crag carefully before climbing; choose routes on the right side which tend to drain better.
- Monitor the forecast closely for the clearing trend around Aug 11 — that looks like the first genuine opportunity for dry conditions in over two weeks.
Do Not Climb
90%
11 days ago
Raven Crag is currently wet from ongoing rain today (6.2mm with showers through the morning), following a prolonged unsettled spell, and tomorrow brings a massive 42mm deluge — conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing today and will remain so for several days. Even the brief dry window this afternoon is insufficient to dry the crag given 100% cloud cover, near-saturated humidity, and no solar radiation reaching the south-facing rock.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Known seepage lines on the left side of the crag will be running heavily given the cumulative ~20mm over the past week and the 42mm forecast tomorrow, likely persisting for days.
- Despite the south-facing aspect, 100% cloud cover today eliminates the solar drying advantage that normally makes this crag one of the faster-drying Lakes venues.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll means climbers can easily check conditions without a major commitment, but the crag will be visibly wet.
- Low cloud is very likely at 280m given the saturated atmosphere (humidity 88–99%), which will further impede drying and may engulf the crag entirely.
Warnings
2
- Multi-pitch trad routes on wet BVS rock are extremely dangerous due to friction loss — do not attempt even if the rock appears to be drying.
- 42mm of rain forecast tomorrow will produce significant runoff and seepage; gully and drainage features near routes may carry water for days afterwards.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from intermittent showers throughout the morning (over 5mm between 03:00 and 13:00), compounding a week of unsettled weather that has delivered nearly 14mm in the last 7 days.
No meaningful drying is occurring today — 100% cloud cover eliminates solar radiation on the south-facing aspect, humidity is 84–99%, and light winds (4–17 km/h) provide minimal evaporative assistance.
Rhyolite/BVS rock is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage from moisture, but surface friction is severely compromised when wet, making multi-pitch trad routes dangerous.
Mid-summer conditions should be favourable, but an active Atlantic weather pattern is delivering repeated frontal systems with cool temperatures well below seasonal norms (14–18°C vs typical 20°C+).
Contributing Factors
6
Over 6mm of rain today with showers persisting through the morning and into early afternoon, leaving the rock surface wet.
42mm forecast for August 5th — an extremely heavy day that will thoroughly soak the crag and recharge all seepage lines.
Approximately 20mm has fallen in the past 10 days across multiple events, meaning the crag has had no sustained drying period.
100% cloud cover all day negates the south-facing aspect's main drying advantage.
Humidity at 84–99% throughout the day severely limits evaporative drying of surface moisture.
Winds of 10–18 km/h from the south provide some air movement but are insufficient to overcome the saturated atmosphere.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or tomorrow — the crag is wet now and a 42mm deluge is forecast for August 5th.
- Monitor conditions from August 7th onwards; a dry day is forecast but high humidity and further rain on the 8th make sustained drying unlikely.
- If visiting the Langdale area this week, consider indoor alternatives or low-level walks, as the entire forecast period looks very unsettled.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
62%
12 days ago
Light overnight and early-morning rain has dampened the rock, but a clearing afternoon window with sunshine, dropping humidity (to ~47%), and a SE breeze should allow the south-facing volcanic rock to dry by early afternoon. However, heavy rain is forecast from tomorrow onwards, making today's afternoon the only viable window for several days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Known seepage lines on the left side of the crag may still be running from the recent wet spell (11mm in the last 7 days), so avoid routes in that area even if the main face appears dry.
- The crag sits at 280m and can be enveloped in low cloud even when the valley is clear — today's 100% cloud cover through mid-morning may delay drying despite the south aspect.
- The short approach from the New Dungeon Ghyll makes it feasible to walk up, assess conditions, and retreat quickly if the rock is still damp.
- After a prolonged dry spell earlier in July, the recent return to wet, unsettled weather (late July into early August) means hidden dampness may linger in cracks and recesses despite surface drying.
Warnings
2
- Heavy rain is forecast from tomorrow through at least August 8th — today's afternoon window may be the last viable opportunity for nearly a week.
- Low cloud may persist at crag height despite valley clearing; if the crag is in mist, friction will remain poor regardless of rain.
Reasoning
Light scattered showers overnight and early morning (totalling ~1mm) on top of a generally wet recent week (11.3mm in 7 days) mean the rock surface is currently damp, though the non-porous rhyolite will not have absorbed moisture internally.
The south/SE aspect should receive direct sun from late morning as cloud breaks (dropping to 10–42% cover 13:00–16:00), and with humidity falling to the mid-40s and a moderate SE breeze around 17 km/h, surface moisture should evaporate within 2–3 hours of sun exposure, potentially yielding dry rock by early afternoon.
Borrowdale Volcanic rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard — there is no risk of structural weakening or hold breakage from the recent moisture.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm afternoon temperatures (up to 23°C) are favourable for rapid drying, though the current unsettled pattern is unusually cool for early August in the Lakes.
Contributing Factors
6
Approximately 1mm of scattered light rain fell between midnight and 07:00, leaving the rock surface damp this morning.
Cloud cover drops significantly between 12:00 and 16:00, allowing the south-facing rock to receive direct solar heating with temperatures reaching 23°C.
Humidity falls from 75% in the morning to 46–47% by mid-afternoon, strongly aiding evaporation from the rock surface.
Over 11mm of rain in the past 7 days means seepage lines and sheltered recesses may retain moisture longer than the main face.
7.3mm forecast for August 4th followed by further heavy rain on the 5th and 6th makes today the only potential climbing window this week.
A 17–19 km/h SE breeze hitting the south-facing crag will assist surface drying throughout the afternoon.
Recommendations
3
- If climbing today, wait until at least 13:00–14:00 to allow the afternoon sun and wind to dry the surface, and physically check friction on the lower rock before committing to a route.
- Avoid the left side of the crag where seepage lines are known to persist — stick to the main central buttress which dries fastest.
- Do not plan any climbing from tomorrow (Aug 4) through at least Aug 8 — sustained heavy rain will keep the crag wet and slippery throughout the week.
Climbing Outlook