Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Caley Crags has had 7 consecutive dry days with warm temperatures and moderate humidity, following only trace amounts of rain — conditions are genuinely dry. The recent hot spell (up to 33°C) with humidity averaging 62% and consistent westerly winds will have thoroughly dried even this NW-facing woodland venue.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley is a woodland setting so tree canopy slows drying and blocks direct sun, but 7 dry days with warm temperatures more than compensates for this.
- The Roadside Boulders near the road can retain ground-level dampness from drainage off the hillside — check the base of problems for residual moisture.
- The Main Crag higher up the hill is more exposed to wind and generally dries faster than the sheltered Roadside Boulders below.
- NW aspect means the crag catches very little direct sun, but the exceptional recent heat (30–33°C on Aug 12–13) will have warmed the rock mass effectively even without direct insolation.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 1.8mm on August 5th (9 days ago), with only 0.1mm trace on August 7th and nothing since — the rock will be thoroughly dry internally.
Seven consecutive fully dry days with temperatures averaging ~25°C, humidity around 62%, and consistent 14–21 km/h westerly winds provide far more drying than required even for this sheltered NW-facing woodland crag.
With extended drying and no freeze-thaw risk in mid-August, the gritstone will be at full compressive strength with no structural concerns.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long days and warm temperatures — ideal conditions for gritstone climbing at Caley.
Contributing Factors
6
Seven consecutive dry days since the last trace of rain (0.1mm on Aug 7), with the last significant rain (1.8mm) nine days ago on Aug 5.
Temperatures have been consistently warm (20–33°C) over the past week, including an exceptional hot spell reaching 33°C, driving thorough evaporation.
Average humidity of 62% over the last 7 days is moderate and well below levels that would impede drying.
Sustained westerly winds of 13–21 km/h throughout the drying period have aided evaporation even in this partially sheltered setting.
The wooded setting and NW aspect slow drying compared to open, south-facing crags, but the extended dry spell has been more than sufficient to overcome this.
Rain is forecast from August 17 (2.4mm) with heavy rain on August 18 (12.9mm), which will end the current good spell.
Recommendations
3
- Conditions are excellent — make the most of the next two days before rain arrives on August 17.
- The Roadside Boulders in the woodland may still harbour localised dampness at ground level from drainage; do a quick touch-test on lower sections before committing.
- Avoid climbing on August 18 and allow at least 48–72 hours of dry weather after the forecast heavy rain before returning.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
92%
2 days ago
Caley Crags has had 6 consecutive dry days following only trace amounts of rain, with warm temperatures and moderate winds providing excellent drying conditions. The rock should be thoroughly dry and in prime condition for climbing today and over the next few days, though heavy rain forecast on August 17th will require a reset.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley is a woodland venue — the tree canopy shelters the rock from wind and direct sun, meaning drying can be slower than open-aspect crags despite favourable weather.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower and closer to the road with slightly better airflow, while The Main Crag higher up the hill can retain dampness in sheltered recesses.
- The NW aspect means the crag gets very little direct sunlight except on long summer evenings, so drying relies heavily on ambient temperature and wind rather than solar heating.
- Some problems at Caley have seepage-prone features and mossy landings — check the base of the rock and any cracks for residual moisture before committing to a problem.
Warnings
1
- Today's extreme heat (34°C) may pose a heat-related health risk — bring plenty of water, seek shade between attempts, and be mindful of heat exhaustion.
Reasoning
Only 0.1mm of rain fell in the last 7 days and the last meaningful precipitation (1.8mm on Aug 5) was 8 days ago, so internal moisture levels should be negligible.
Six consecutive dry days with temperatures averaging 18°C, humidity around 61%, and moderate westerly winds have provided ample drying time — well beyond the 24–48 hour minimum needed after such light rainfall.
With the rock thoroughly dried out over more than a week, there is no meaningful risk of strength loss or hold breakage from residual moisture.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long days and warm temperatures — ideal conditions for gritstone climbing, and no freeze-thaw risk whatsoever.
Contributing Factors
5
Six consecutive dry days and only trace precipitation (0.1mm) in the last week provide excellent drying conditions far exceeding the minimum 24–48 hour guideline.
Temperatures reaching 25–34°C over recent days with an average of 18°C strongly promote evaporation and thorough drying of the rock.
Consistent winds of 13–24 km/h from westerly directions help move moist air away from the rock surface, though the woodland setting partially limits this benefit.
The NW-facing aspect and sheltered woodland setting limit direct sun exposure, but this is fully compensated by the prolonged dry spell and warm ambient temperatures.
A significant 26.4mm rainfall event is forecast for August 17th, which will require 48–72+ hours of dry weather afterwards before conditions are safe again.
Recommendations
3
- Conditions are excellent today — make the most of the dry spell, especially with heavy rain forecast for Sunday the 17th.
- Evening sessions will be most pleasant given the extreme heat today (34°C); the NW aspect means the crag is at its best in late afternoon and evening light.
- After the heavy rain forecast on August 17th, allow at least 48–72 hours of dry weather before returning, and check the woodland floor and rock base for residual dampness.
Likely Safe to Climb
92%
3 days ago
Caley Crags has had 5 consecutive dry days following only trace precipitation (0.1mm on Aug 7), with warm temperatures and moderate wind — the rock should be thoroughly dry. Today's hot, low-humidity conditions (30°C, humidity dropping to 26%) make for excellent gritstone climbing, especially into the evening when the NW aspect catches late sun.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley is a woodland venue — the tree canopy shelters the rock from direct sun and wind, which can slow drying compared to open moorland grit venues.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower and closer to the road with slightly more shelter, so they may retain moisture longer than the Main Crag higher up the hill.
- The NW aspect means the crag gets very little direct sun until late afternoon/evening in summer, making it a good hot-weather venue but slower to dry than south-facing crags.
- Some problems at Caley have natural seepage lines and mossy bases — check individual landings and lower sections even when general conditions are good.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 1.8mm on Aug 5 (7 days ago), followed by only trace amounts (0.4mm on Aug 6, 0.1mm on Aug 7), and 5 fully dry days since — internal moisture should be fully dissipated.
Despite the NW aspect and woodland setting slowing drying, five dry days with temperatures averaging 16–25°C and moderate westerly winds (13–21 km/h) provide more than adequate drying time for the very light recent rainfall.
With total precipitation of only 0.5mm in the last 7 days and extended drying, there is negligible risk of strength loss or hold breakage from residual moisture.
Mid-August is peak summer season with long days and warm temperatures — ideal conditions for gritstone, and the NW aspect at Caley makes it especially pleasant in today's 30°C heat.
Contributing Factors
6
Five consecutive dry days since Aug 7's trace 0.1mm, and the last significant rain (1.8mm) was a full week ago on Aug 5.
Temperatures have ranged 16–26°C over the past week with today reaching 30°C, providing strong evaporative drying conditions.
Only 0.5mm total in the past 7 days and 7.1mm over 28 days — the rock has never been deeply saturated this period.
Consistent winds of 13–22 km/h from westerly directions have aided surface and subsurface drying, though the woodland setting partially buffers this.
The sheltered woodland setting and north-west facing aspect slow drying compared to open south-facing crags, but with 5+ dry days this is no longer a limiting factor.
Humidity drops to 26% this afternoon — excellent for any residual surface moisture evaporation and comfortable friction conditions.
Recommendations
3
- Climb with confidence today, especially from late afternoon into evening when the NW aspect catches the sun and temperatures begin to cool from the 30°C peak.
- Be aware that rain is forecast for Aug 16–17 (~5mm total), so conditions will deteriorate later in the week — plan sessions for Aug 12–15.
- Check mossy or low-lying problem bases individually, as the woodland setting can hold localised dampness even when the main rock is dry.
Likely Safe to Climb
85%
5 days ago
Caley Crags has had three fully dry days following only very light, scattered precipitation (2.7mm over the prior week), with warm summer temperatures and moderate wind aiding drying. Conditions should be good for climbing today, particularly from late morning onwards when humidity drops below 50%.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley is a woodland venue — the tree canopy shelters boulders from wind and direct sun, meaning drying is slower than at open moorland crags despite the same weather.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower and closer to the road with some drainage seepage; the Main Crag higher up the hill tends to dry faster due to better airflow.
- NW aspect means the crag gets very little direct sun except on long summer evenings, so drying relies primarily on wind and ambient temperature rather than solar heating.
- Some of the classic slabs and lower faces can retain dampness in mossy cracks and at the base even when the main face feels dry — always check holds before committing on highballs.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 1.8mm on August 5th, with only trace amounts (0.1–0.4mm) on August 6–7; three fully dry days since then at summer temperatures should have thoroughly dried the rock from such light totals.
Moderate westerly and NW winds (18–23 km/h) over the drying period, combined with warm daytime temperatures (20–25°C) and declining humidity (59–67%), have provided effective drying conditions despite the sheltered woodland setting and NW aspect.
With total recent precipitation under 3mm over the past week and three dry days, the rock is unlikely to retain meaningful internal moisture; structural risk from weakened holds is very low.
Mid-summer conditions are ideal for Caley — long daylight hours, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk; the NW aspect makes summer evenings the prime window.
Contributing Factors
6
Three full dry days since the last trace precipitation (0.1mm on Aug 7), with warm temperatures accelerating evaporation.
Only 2.7mm total in the last 7 days, spread across several days as trace amounts — insufficient to deeply saturate the rock.
Daytime highs of 20–25°C and an average of 16°C over the past week provide good evaporative potential for drying.
Sustained winds of 18–23 km/h over recent days help move moist air away from the rock surface, though the woodland setting limits this effect somewhat.
The north-west facing aspect receives minimal direct sun and the woodland canopy reduces airflow, meaning drying is slower than at open south-facing venues.
Humidity drops to 37–41% this afternoon, creating excellent evaporative conditions for any residual surface moisture.
Recommendations
3
- Conditions look good — head out this afternoon when humidity is at its lowest (37–41%) for the best friction on Caley's notoriously tenuous slabs.
- Check the base of problems and mossy cracks at the Roadside Boulders before climbing, as these sheltered lower areas can hold dampness longest.
- The forecast warm spell through to Thursday (up to 32°C on the 13th) means excellent drying conditions ahead — a great week for Caley sessions.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
5 days ago
Caley has seen only light, scattered rain recently (1.8mm on Aug 5, then trace amounts on Aug 6–7), with two fully dry days since. Conditions are likely dry on exposed surfaces, but the woodland setting and NW aspect mean sheltered areas—especially lower Roadside Boulders—may still hold residual dampness and warrant a visual check on arrival.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley's woodland setting significantly slows drying: tree cover reduces airflow and sun exposure, meaning boulders deep in the trees can stay damp long after open rock has dried.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower and closer to the road in denser woodland, and tend to retain moisture longer than the Main Crag higher up the hill.
- The NW aspect means direct sun only arrives in late afternoon/evening during summer—long summer evenings are the prime window for both warmth and any direct solar drying.
- Seepage and moss are common on slab faces and around cracks; these areas can remain damp for days after even light rain, particularly on the north-facing sides of individual boulders.
Warnings
1
- Some sheltered boulders deep in the woodland may still be damp despite the surface appearing dry—test holds carefully before committing to highball problems.
Reasoning
The most recent meaningful rain was 1.8mm on Aug 5, followed by trace amounts (0.4mm and 0.1mm) on Aug 6–7, with two full dry days since; total recent moisture input is low but the woodland/NW aspect slows evaporation.
Two dry days with moderate westerly winds (18–24 km/h) and temperatures around 20–25°C provide reasonable drying, though the sheltered woodland and NW facing reduce the effective benefit of wind and sun.
With only light rain totals and warm summer temperatures, internal saturation risk is low; structural risk from hold breakage is minimal but not zero in any areas that remain damp in sheltered recesses.
Mid-summer conditions are favourable with long days, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk; this is the best time of year for a NW-facing woodland crag like Caley.
Contributing Factors
6
Only 1.8mm fell on Aug 5 with trace amounts on Aug 6–7, well below the threshold for deep saturation of gritstone.
Aug 8–9 have been dry with decent temperatures (21–25°C) and moderate wind, providing good surface drying conditions.
The NW facing means no direct sun until late afternoon/evening, reducing the rate of evaporation compared to south-facing crags.
Tree cover at Caley reduces wind penetration and sun exposure at rock level, significantly slowing drying in sheltered spots.
Westerly winds of 18–24 km/h over the past two days aid drying, though partial shelter reduces their full effect at crag level.
Humidity averaging around 64–68% is reasonable for summer but not low enough to drive aggressive drying.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the late afternoon or evening when any available direct sun reaches the NW-facing rock and temperatures are warmest.
- Check the base of boulders and any mossy/lichenous areas before committing—if the ground around the base is damp, the rock likely still holds internal moisture.
- Favour the Main Crag higher up the hill over the lower Roadside Boulders, as the higher position gets better airflow and dries faster.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
6 days ago
Recent days have seen scattered light precipitation (1.8mm on Aug 5, 0.4mm on Aug 6, 0.1mm on Aug 7) with only one fully dry day since. While amounts are very small and today's warm, dry, breezy conditions are helpful, the NW aspect and woodland setting at Caley mean some sheltered surfaces may not have fully dried. A visual check on arrival is recommended.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley's woodland setting traps humidity and shields rock from wind, significantly slowing drying especially on the Roadside Boulders lower down the hill.
- The NW aspect receives very limited direct sun — even in midsummer, only late-evening light reaches the rock, so drying relies primarily on wind and ambient temperature rather than solar heating.
- The Main Crag higher up the hill is slightly more exposed and tends to dry faster than the sheltered Roadside Boulders below.
- Seepage and moss patches are common on several problems; even after a dry spell, localised damp patches can persist in cracks and on north-facing slabs.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on any surface that feels cool or tacky to the touch — gritstone can appear dry while retaining damaging internal moisture.
- Repeated light wettings over recent days may have kept moss and lichen patches saturated; avoid climbing near or through these features.
Reasoning
Total precipitation over the last 4 days is roughly 2.7mm in small scattered amounts, with only one full dry day (today) since the last measurable rain on Aug 7 — the rock surface is likely mostly dry but internal moisture from repeated light wettings in a shaded woodland setting may linger.
Today's conditions (25°C, 58% humidity, 18 km/h SW wind) are excellent for drying, but the NW aspect and partial wind shelter mean the rock benefits less than a south-facing exposed crag would; one strong drying day after repeated light rain is borderline for full confidence.
The recent rain amounts are individually trivial (<2mm each event), so deep saturation and significant strength loss are unlikely, but repeated light wettings can keep surface layers weakened on porous gritstone.
Midsummer conditions are favourable with warm temperatures and long days, though the woodland canopy and NW aspect reduce the seasonal advantage at this particular venue.
Contributing Factors
5
Small but repeated precipitation events on Aug 3–7 (totalling ~3.7mm in 5 days) have kept the rock surface periodically wetted, preventing a sustained drying window.
25°C with 58% humidity and moderate SW wind today provide strong drying, though this is only the first fully dry day since Aug 7.
The NW-facing rock receives minimal direct sun even in summer, and the woodland setting traps humid air, substantially slowing evaporation compared to open south-facing crags.
Individual rain events have been very light (0.1–1.8mm), meaning deep saturation is unlikely and surface drying should be achievable relatively quickly.
Winds of 18–27 km/h over recent days help move moisture from the rock surface, partially compensating for the lack of direct sun.
Recommendations
3
- Visit later in the day to maximise the benefit of today's warm, dry, breezy conditions and check rock surfaces carefully before committing to climb.
- Prioritise the Main Crag higher up the hill, which is more exposed to wind and likely drier than the sheltered Roadside Boulders.
- Avoid any problems with visible seepage, moss patches, or damp-looking patches in cracks — these areas will retain moisture longest in this woodland setting.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
7 days ago
Recent light rain on 5th–6th August (2.2mm combined) means only one full dry day has elapsed, though the amounts were small and today's conditions are favourable for drying. The woodland setting and NW aspect at Caley slow drying, so a visual check on arrival is warranted before committing to climb.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley's woodland setting traps humidity and shields the rock from wind and sun, significantly slowing drying compared to open moorland gritstone venues.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower and closer to tree cover, so they tend to stay damp longer than The Main Crag higher up the hill which gets slightly more airflow.
- NW aspect means virtually no direct sun until late evening in summer — drying relies almost entirely on wind and ambient temperature rather than solar heating.
- Seepage can persist on the slabby problems and lower sections even when upper arêtes and overhangs feel dry; test the base of the rock and any horizontal breaks before pulling on.
Warnings
1
- Do not climb slabby or low-angle problems if any dampness is detected — these holds are most vulnerable to breakage on gritstone and friction is critically reduced.
Reasoning
Light rain on Aug 5th (1.8mm) and a trace on Aug 6th (0.4mm) totalling 2.2mm over two days means only superficial wetting, but with just one dry day elapsed and the sheltered woodland setting, some internal moisture likely remains in lower and more shaded boulders.
Today's westerly wind at ~20 km/h and 66% humidity provide reasonable drying conditions, and tomorrow's forecast (25°C, 60% humidity, 18 km/h SW) should complete drying of any residual moisture from these very light amounts — but the NW aspect and tree cover limit evaporation rates.
Given the very small total rainfall (2.2mm) and warm summer temperatures, structural risk from weakened gritstone is low but not negligible — the most vulnerable holds on slabs could still be compromised if any dampness lingers in sheltered spots.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with warm temperatures and long days; no freeze-thaw risk; the main concern is the recent cluster of light showers keeping background moisture elevated.
Contributing Factors
7
1.8mm on Aug 5th and 0.4mm on Aug 6th give only one full dry day so far, which is borderline for even light rain on porous gritstone.
Caley's dense woodland setting traps humidity around the boulders and blocks airflow, materially slowing evaporation compared to exposed crags.
The north-west facing aspect receives very little direct sunlight, removing a major drying driver and leaving wind as the primary mechanism.
Total recent precipitation was very light (2.2mm over two days), meaning wetting depth into the rock was shallow and drying time needed is correspondingly shorter.
Westerly wind at ~20 km/h today is helpful for surface drying, though partially blocked by surrounding trees at boulder level.
Tomorrow's forecast of 25°C with 60% humidity and SW wind provides excellent drying conditions that should clear any residual surface moisture.
Multiple light showers over the past week (Aug 1–6 totalling ~3.9mm) have kept background moisture levels elevated rather than allowing a sustained dry-out.
Recommendations
3
- Visit tomorrow (Aug 8th) rather than today — the extra day of warm, lower-humidity conditions will significantly improve confidence in dryness.
- On arrival, test the base of boulders and any horizontal cracks with your palm; if they feel cool or damp, move on to overhanging or upper problems only.
- Prioritise The Main Crag over the Roadside Boulders, as it sits higher on the hill with better airflow and will have dried faster.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
9 days ago
Recent rainfall has been light and scattered (2.1mm on Aug 5, 0.4mm on Aug 4, 0.9mm on Aug 3, plus trace amounts today), but totals are low and drying conditions this afternoon look promising with moderate wind and dropping humidity. However, the woodland setting and NW aspect at Caley slow drying, so a visual check on arrival is essential — particularly at lower boulders and shaded faces.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley's woodland canopy traps humidity and shields boulders from wind and sun, meaning drying takes significantly longer than open moorland gritstone venues.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower and closer to the road with slightly more airflow, while The Main Crag higher up the hill is more sheltered by trees and can hold seepage longer.
- NW aspect means virtually no direct sun dries the rock until late summer evenings — on overcast days like today, drying relies entirely on wind and ambient evaporation.
- Several problems at Caley feature low-angled slabs and delicate friction-dependent moves where even slight residual moisture dramatically increases both danger and rock damage risk.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on any surface that feels cool, damp, or greasy — gritstone loses significant strength at very low moisture levels and holds can snap.
- The woodland floor and moss patches near boulder bases are good moisture indicators: if these are visibly wet, the rock is almost certainly still damp internally.
Reasoning
Light but repeated rain over the past few days (0.9mm Aug 3, 0.4mm Aug 4, 2.1mm Aug 5, 0.2mm today) means the rock has not had a clean 48-hour dry window, though cumulative totals are modest at around 4mm in the last 4 days.
Moderate westerly winds (20–25 km/h) and afternoon humidity dropping to ~50% today provide decent drying, but the NW aspect and woodland shelter at Caley significantly reduce effective evaporation compared to exposed south-facing crags.
With only light rain totals the rock is unlikely to be deeply saturated, but repeated wetting without full drying cycles means surface and near-surface layers may still retain enough moisture to weaken gritstone holds — particularly on friction-dependent slab problems.
Mid-summer temperatures (17–20°C) and longer daylight hours are favourable for drying, and there is no freeze-thaw concern at this time of year.
Contributing Factors
6
Rain fell on Aug 3 (0.9mm), Aug 4 (0.4mm), Aug 5 (2.1mm), and trace today (0.2mm), preventing a clean multi-day drying window.
Total precipitation over the past 4 days is only ~3.6mm, so deep saturation is unlikely.
Sustained westerly winds of 19–22 km/h through the afternoon will help surface drying, though canopy shelter reduces effectiveness at rock level.
The NW-facing woodland setting receives minimal direct sun and traps humidity, substantially slowing drying compared to open or south-facing crags.
Humidity is forecast to drop to 49–54% this afternoon, providing a reasonable drying window.
The last fully dry stretch was July 28–31 (4 days), but since then light rain has fallen on 5 of 6 days, keeping the rock periodically re-wetted.
Recommendations
3
- Visit this afternoon (after 14:00) when humidity is lowest and apply a careful touch test to multiple surfaces — if any feel cool or tacky, do not climb.
- Prioritise steeper, overhanging problems and well-exposed arêtes which will have dried fastest; avoid low-angled slabs and areas near the ground or under heavy tree cover.
- If conditions look marginal today, tomorrow (Aug 7) offers a full dry day with lower humidity (64%) and good wind — a stronger bet for reliable conditions.
Do Not Climb
85%
11 days ago
Caley Crags received 6mm of rain today (with the heaviest burst early morning and a significant 3.6mm shower forecast for 21:00), following scattered light rain over the past week totalling ~10mm. The rock is currently wet and further rain is forecast tomorrow, so conditions are unsuitable for climbing today and over the next couple of days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley's woodland setting traps humidity and shields the rock from wind, significantly slowing drying — even in summer the trees create a microclimate that retains moisture longer than open crags.
- The NW aspect means the crag receives very limited direct sunlight, with only late-evening summer sun reaching some faces; drying relies heavily on wind and ambient temperature rather than solar heating.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower in the woodland and tend to stay damper longer than the Main Crag higher up the hill, so check conditions at both areas independently.
- Seepage lines are common on several of the taller problems and slabs, and these can weep for days after rain even when surrounding rock appears dry.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on wet gritstone at Caley risks permanent damage to the crag's delicate slab holds and fragile features — please wait for dry conditions.
- A heavy 3.6mm rain burst is forecast at 21:00 tonight; do not be tempted by the dry-looking afternoon window as the rock is already damp from this morning's rain.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from 6mm of rain today (1.4mm fell early morning, with scattered light showers through the day), compounded by light but repeated rain events over the past week (1mm on Aug 3, 0.1mm on Aug 2, 0.3mm on Aug 1).
Despite moderate wind speeds (18 km/h today), the NW aspect and woodland setting severely limit drying; the rock has had no meaningful dry spell since the recent cluster of rain events, and a heavy 3.6mm shower is forecast tonight.
Gritstone at Caley is porous and will have absorbed moisture from today's rain and the preceding week's scattered showers; climbing now risks hold breakage on the crag's characteristically delicate features and tenuous slab holds.
Mid-summer temperatures (~18–25°C) are helpful for drying in principle, but the repeated rain events and high humidity (82% today) are preventing the rock from fully drying out between showers.
Contributing Factors
6
6mm total today including a forecast 3.6mm burst at 21:00 means the rock is actively being wetted and will remain saturated overnight.
Scattered light rain on Aug 1, 2, and 3 (totalling ~1.4mm) means the rock never fully dried before today's heavier rain.
The north-west facing aspect receives minimal direct sun and the woodland setting traps humid air, dramatically slowing evaporation from the rock.
Partial wind exposure and forecast winds of 20–35 km/h over coming days will aid drying once the rain stops.
Daytime highs of 17–20°C over the next few days provide reasonable ambient warmth to support evaporation.
2.5mm is forecast for tomorrow (Aug 5) and 0.5mm on Aug 6, resetting the drying clock before conditions can improve.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Caley today or tomorrow — the rock is wet and more rain is imminent.
- The earliest realistic window is August 8, after two full dry days following the last forecast rain on August 6; check conditions carefully on arrival, especially on lower boulders and seepage-prone slabs.
- If visiting on August 8, test the ground at the base of the crag — if the soil and leaf litter are still damp, the rock likely retains internal moisture.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
62%
12 days ago
Recent rainfall has been very light and scattered (0.1–1.3mm events over the past week), with reasonable drying conditions in between, but today's trace precipitation and high morning humidity mean the rock may not be fully dry — particularly in the woodland setting. An afternoon window today looks promising if you visually confirm dryness on arrival, but further light rain is forecast from this evening onwards.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caley's woodland setting traps humidity and shields the rock from wind and sun, significantly slowing drying compared to open moorland gritstone edges.
- The Roadside Boulders sit lower and closer to the road with slightly better airflow, while The Main Crag higher up is more sheltered by trees and can hold seepage longer.
- NW aspect means virtually no direct sun until late afternoon/evening in summer — drying relies almost entirely on wind and ambient temperature rather than solar heating.
- Gritstone slabs and lower sections of highball problems at Caley are especially prone to retaining moisture at the base where drainage collects.
Warnings
2
- Light rain is forecast from approximately 20:00 tonight — plan to finish climbing well before then.
- The woodland floor staying damp is a reliable indicator that the rock hasn't fully dried; check the ground at the base of boulders before climbing.
Reasoning
The last measurable rain was 0.6mm today (trace amounts late evening forecast), preceded by small amounts on Aug 1–2 (0.3–0.1mm) and slightly more on Jul 25–27 (cumulative ~2.8mm), so total recent wetting has been light but repetitive, keeping the rock in a state of intermittent low-level moisture input.
Between Jul 28–31 the crag had 4 consecutive dry days with moderate westerly winds (17–22 km/h) and temperatures around 18–24°C, which should have dried the light Jul 25–27 rain adequately, but the subsequent trace amounts on Aug 1–3 have re-wetted the surface in a sheltered woodland NW-facing setting.
Given the very low total precipitation amounts involved (sub-1mm events), deep saturation is unlikely and structural risk is low, though repeated light wetting in the shaded woodland environment could keep surface layers weakened.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with warm temperatures and long days, but Caley's NW aspect and tree cover mean it benefits less from summer sun than south-facing venues.
Contributing Factors
7
Individual rain events have been trace to 1.3mm — far below heavy thresholds — so deep saturation of the gritstone is very unlikely.
Small but frequent precipitation on Jul 25–27, Aug 1–2, and today keeps the surface layers intermittently damp rather than allowing a clean extended dry period.
The dense woodland setting and NW facing aspect severely limit solar drying, meaning even trace rain takes longer to evaporate than at open or south-facing crags.
Temperatures of 18–25°C over recent days provide reasonable evaporative potential even without direct sun.
Easterly wind at ~23 km/h today helps move humid air away from the rock surface, aiding afternoon drying through the partially sheltered woodland.
Light rain (0.1–0.2mm/hr) is forecast from 20:00 onwards, closing any dry climbing window by early evening.
Further light rain is forecast on Aug 4, 6, 7, and a heavier 3.3mm event on Aug 8, preventing any extended dry spell.
Recommendations
3
- If climbing today, aim for the afternoon window (roughly 11:00–19:00) when humidity drops below 50% and temperatures peak — but physically check the rock is dry before pulling on.
- Prioritise the Roadside Boulders which have slightly better airflow and may dry faster than the more sheltered Main Crag higher up.
- Given the unsettled forecast ahead, this afternoon may be the best window for several days — but do not climb if the rock feels even slightly cool or tacky to the touch.
Climbing Outlook