Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Dow Crag is saturated after an extremely wet fortnight (over 240mm in 28 days) with rain today and more forecast through the week. The crag will be streaming with seepage, humidity is near 100%, and there is no meaningful drying window in sight.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Extensive seepage lines across all five buttresses will be running heavily after 240mm+ of rain in the past month, making even nominally dry routes wet.
- At 600m with 100% cloud cover and near-100% humidity, the rock cannot shed surface moisture — condensation alone will keep surfaces damp.
- The E/NE aspect means the crag loses any sun by early afternoon, and with persistent cloud base below 600m, it is unlikely to see any direct sun at all in current conditions.
- The 60+ minute approach on the Walna Scar road will be boggy and slow, and with deteriorating evening weather today, retreat could become unpleasant.
Warnings
3
- Multi-pitch routes on wet volcanic rock are extremely slippery and a serious fall risk — trad gear placements may also be compromised by water in cracks.
- Cloud base is likely below the crag at 600m; navigation on the approach and descent requires full mountain skills and equipment.
- The mountain is saturated — stream crossings on the approach may be swollen and hazardous.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly wet: 5.4mm falling today on top of nearly 90mm in the last week and 240mm in the last 28 days, with humidity at 97–100% all day.
Zero effective drying is occurring — persistent cloud at crag level, near-100% humidity, and an E/NE aspect with no direct sun mean surface moisture cannot evaporate.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite is not at risk of structural damage, but friction is severely compromised when wet, making multi-pitch trad climbing extremely dangerous.
Early June should offer improving conditions, but this has been an exceptionally wet spell; the crag is behaving more like a winter wet period than early summer.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 240mm in 28 days with significant falls on June 1 (44mm), June 4 (56mm), June 8 (33mm), and June 11 (22mm) have thoroughly saturated the mountain.
5.4mm forecast today with intermittent showers throughout and heavier rain returning this evening.
Humidity has averaged 91% over the past week and is forecast at 97–100% at crag level today, preventing any evaporative drying.
100% cloud cover all day means no solar drying and the crag is likely in cloud, adding condensation moisture to the rock.
Winds of 20–26 km/h provide some drying potential, but this is negated by saturated air and ongoing precipitation.
Over 70mm of rain is forecast in the next 6 days, with heavy falls on June 18 (28mm) and June 19 (24mm), ruling out near-term drying.
Recommendations
3
- Do not attempt Dow Crag in current conditions — the rock will be streaming wet and extremely slippery on multi-pitch routes.
- Monitor conditions from June 22 onward when the first dry day appears in the forecast, but extended drying will be needed after this prolonged wet spell.
- If visiting the Coniston area, consider low-level sheltered alternatives or save Dow Crag for a settled spell with at least 2–3 consecutive dry days.
Previous Analyses
Do Not Climb
75%
2 days ago
Dow Crag has received over 236mm of rain in the past 28 days, with significant falls on June 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th, and 11th, and only a brief drying window of roughly 36 hours since the last meaningful rain. Although the volcanic rock is non-porous, extensive seepage lines will still be running at this mountain crag, and persistent high humidity (averaging 91% over the last week) severely limits surface drying — we recommend not climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's five buttresses have extensive seepage lines that run for days after heavy or prolonged rain, and 236mm in the last month means these are almost certainly still active.
- The east/NE-facing aspect loses direct sun by early afternoon, and at 600m the crag is frequently in cloud — today's near-100% cloud cover will suppress evaporative drying.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road means a full commitment to mountain conditions; with rain forecast from tomorrow, any window today is marginal at best.
- Wind has been moderate from the east today, which blows directly onto the face rather than across it, limiting its drying effectiveness on seepage-prone sections.
Warnings
2
- Extensive seepage lines are almost certainly running after 236mm of rain in the past month — even apparently dry-looking rock may have damp patches that dramatically reduce friction on the volcanic surface.
- Heavy rain is forecast from June 16–19 (72mm total) — conditions will deteriorate further before they improve.
Reasoning
With 236mm of rain in the past 28 days, major downpours on June 1st (44mm), 4th (56mm), 8th (33mm), and 11th (22mm), and only ~36 hours since the last rain on June 13th, the rock surface and seepage lines are very likely still wet.
Despite moderate wind exposure, the east/NE aspect, 600m altitude, persistent cloud cover (near 100% today), and high average humidity of 91% over the last week mean drying has been extremely limited during the brief dry spells.
Non-porous BVS volcanic rock does not suffer structural damage from moisture, so hold breakage is not a concern — the risk is purely friction loss on wet or damp surfaces.
Mid-June should be approaching peak season, but this has been an exceptionally wet period; at 600m altitude temperatures have been cool (averaging ~9°C over the past week), further slowing evaporation.
Contributing Factors
6
236mm in 28 days with multiple heavy events (56mm on June 4th alone) has thoroughly saturated the ground and activated all seepage lines.
Only about 36 hours since the last rain (June 13th 0.4mm, June 12th 1.2mm), far too little to clear seepage at this altitude and aspect.
Average humidity of 91% over the past week and persistent cloud cover at crag level severely impede evaporative drying.
BVS volcanic rock does not absorb water or weaken structurally, so the concern is limited to surface friction rather than hold damage.
The exposed position and moderate winds (~20–22 km/h today) help strip surface moisture, though easterly wind today blows onto the face which is less effective for clearing seepage.
11.4mm forecast for June 16th means any marginal drying achieved today will be immediately reversed.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for an extended dry spell of at least 2–3 days with lower humidity before attempting routes, especially on the shadier buttresses (D and E).
- If you do visit, consider lower-altitude valley crags in the Coniston area that dry faster and have better sun exposure.
- Check the MWIS Lake District forecast for cloud base height — at 600m Dow Crag is frequently in cloud during periods of high humidity like this.
Do Not Climb
90%
3 days ago
Dow Crag has received over 230mm of rain in the last 28 days, with 72.6mm in the past week alone including heavy falls of 55.7mm and 32.6mm on individual days. Today is only the first dry day after this prolonged deluge, and with humidity at 86%, temperatures barely reaching 13°C at altitude, and the E/NE aspect limiting solar drying, the crag will be extensively wet with active seepage lines across all buttresses.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's extensive seepage lines will be running heavily after 236mm of rain in 28 days — even non-porous BVS rock channels water down the buttresses for days after prolonged wet spells of this magnitude.
- The east/north-east aspect means the crag loses direct sun by early afternoon and north-facing sections of the buttresses receive almost no direct sunlight, severely slowing surface drying.
- At 600m altitude, temperatures are roughly 4°C cooler than valley readings, meaning the crag has been sitting around 5–9°C with near-saturated air — conditions that strongly inhibit evaporation.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road will itself be boggy and waterlogged after this extended wet period, and the crag is likely to be in cloud for significant portions of each day given the forecast humidity levels.
Warnings
3
- Active seepage lines across all buttresses make multi-pitch routes extremely dangerous due to friction loss on wet volcanic rock.
- The crag is likely to be in cloud with near-zero visibility at 600m given current humidity levels — serious navigation hazard on approach and descent.
- Wind chill at 600m in 25–40 km/h winds with wet conditions could produce feels-like temperatures near freezing — hypothermia risk is real.
Reasoning
The rock surface will be extensively wet with active seepage across all buttresses — 236mm of rain in 28 days with barely a single dry day means water is saturating every drainage line and ledge system on the crag.
Only one dry day so far after weeks of near-continuous rain; the E/NE aspect, 600m altitude, and 86–92% humidity mean evaporation rates are extremely low and meaningful drying has not yet begun.
The BVS volcanic rock is non-porous and structurally sound when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern — the risk is purely friction loss on slippery wet surfaces.
Early June at 600m should offer improving conditions, but this has been an exceptionally wet spell; the crag-level temperature averaging under 9°C is more typical of early spring and will delay drying significantly.
Contributing Factors
7
236mm of rain over 28 days with multiple heavy falls exceeding 30mm has thoroughly saturated the mountain and all drainage systems feeding the crag.
A single dry day is wholly insufficient to dry a 600m mountain crag after weeks of near-continuous heavy rain.
Average humidity of 92% over the past week with the crag likely in cloud for extended periods means evaporation is negligible.
Valley temperatures of 8–13°C translate to roughly 4–9°C at crag level, far too cool to drive rapid drying.
The east-facing aspect catches only morning sun and the NE-facing sections get very little direct solar input, further slowing evaporation.
The exposed position and moderate to strong winds (20–42 km/h recently) will help surface drying once precipitation stops, but one day of wind is not enough.
BVS volcanic rock does not absorb water or weaken structurally when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Dow Crag today or in the coming days — the crag needs an extended dry spell of at least 3–4 sunny, breezy days to clear seepage lines after this volume of rain.
- Consider lower-altitude, south-facing crags in the Lakes that will dry faster, such as Chapel Head Scar or Shepherd's Crag which sit below 300m.
- Monitor the MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service) Lake District forecast rather than valley weather — conditions at 600m will be significantly worse than Coniston village suggests.
Do Not Climb
90%
4 days ago
Dow Crag has received nearly 90mm of rain in the last 7 days and over 237mm in the past 28 days, with today still recording precipitation and humidity at 91%. The crag will be saturated with extensive seepage, and even though rhyolite doesn't absorb water, surfaces will be dangerously slippery and conditions are wholly unsuitable for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's extensive seepage lines will be running hard after 237mm in 28 days — even buttresses that are normally dry will have water streaming across them.
- The E/NE aspect means the crag loses direct sun by early afternoon, severely limiting the drying window during any brief dry spells.
- At 600m altitude with average temperatures of only 8.7°C this past week, evaporative drying is extremely slow and the crag is likely in cloud much of the time given 94% average humidity.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road will itself be very wet and boggy after this prolonged rainfall, adding to the seriousness of the outing.
Warnings
3
- Multi-pitch routes on saturated rhyolite at 600m are extremely dangerous — friction loss on wet BVS rock combined with wind chill and potential cloud immersion creates a serious risk of leader falls and hypothermia.
- Seepage and runoff across the crag will make belays, stances, and approach gullies treacherous; Goat's Water approach paths may be flooded or eroded.
- The crag is very likely to be in cloud given current humidity levels — navigation on the descent and approach requires full mountain equipment and experience.
Reasoning
The rock surface is almost certainly wet or running with water today — 1.4mm fell today on top of 87.7mm in the past week, with humidity at 91% and zero consecutive dry days.
Despite strong westerly winds (42 km/h), the sustained rainfall, near-saturated atmosphere, and E/NE aspect with limited afternoon sun mean meaningful drying has not occurred and cannot occur until a sustained dry spell with lower humidity arrives.
Rhyolite is non-porous so structural damage from moisture is not a concern, but friction loss on wet volcanic rock at this altitude is a serious slip-and-fall hazard on multi-pitch routes.
Early June should be approaching peak season, but this has been an exceptionally wet period; the crag is behaving more like a winter venue with persistent cloud cover, low temperatures, and saturated ground.
Contributing Factors
6
87.7mm in the past 7 days and 237mm in 28 days represents a prolonged saturation event that will have every seepage line and drainage channel running.
There has been no meaningful dry window — today still recorded 1.4mm of precipitation, continuing an almost unbroken run of wet days.
Average humidity of 94% over the past week with today at 91% means evaporative drying is negligible even in wind.
42 km/h westerly winds would normally aid drying, but at near-100% humidity with ongoing rain they provide no meaningful benefit and increase wind chill and exposure risk.
Average temperature of just 8.7°C at 600m over the past week significantly slows any drying processes and makes for cold, unpleasant climbing conditions.
The east-facing crag only receives morning sun and is shaded from early afternoon, reducing the already limited solar drying potential.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Dow Crag today or in the immediate future — the crag is saturated and dangerously slippery.
- Monitor the brief dry window forecast for June 14–15; if humidity drops and skies clear, the crag may begin to dry but will need at least 24–48 hours of sustained dry conditions before being climbable.
- Consider lower-altitude, south-facing alternatives with better drying potential if you need to climb this week, but check conditions carefully given the regional saturation.
Do Not Climb
92%
5 days ago
Dow Crag has received over 90mm of rain in the past 7 days and over 230mm in the past 28 days, with near-constant high humidity and today still recording precipitation — the rock will be saturated with active seepage lines, and conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing. Even though the volcanic rock is non-porous, extensive surface water, seepage, and persistent cloud cover at 600m make friction dangerously unreliable on this serious mountain venue.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's extensive seepage lines will be running heavily after 230mm+ of rain in the past month, with water streaming across routes on all five buttresses — these can take several dry days to subside at this altitude.
- The east/northeast aspect receives only morning sun and is shaded by afternoon, severely limiting solar drying during the critical recovery period ahead.
- At 600m altitude, the crag has been in cloud almost continuously (humidity 90–100% for the past 10+ days), meaning even brief dry spells have provided minimal evaporative drying.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road will itself be boggy and unpleasant, and strong winds (44 km/h today) combined with wet rock on multi-pitch routes create a serious fall risk.
Warnings
3
- Active seepage lines across all buttresses combined with wet, greasy rock make multi-pitch trad climbing extremely dangerous — a slip on friction-dependent moves could be fatal.
- Strong winds (44+ km/h today, 48 km/h forecast tomorrow) at 600m altitude with wet rock create severe exposure risk on the upper pitches.
- The crag is likely in cloud today and tomorrow — poor visibility combined with wet rock on a serious mountain crag is a recipe for an accident.
Reasoning
The rock surface is thoroughly wet with active seepage across the crag after 91mm in 7 days and near-100% humidity, with today still seeing 2.7mm of rain.
Despite strong winds (24–44 km/h), persistent cloud cover and extreme humidity (94% average over 7 days) at 600m altitude have prevented any meaningful drying between rain events.
Non-porous BVS volcanic rock is not at risk of structural damage, but the primary concern is dangerously reduced friction on wet surfaces during multi-pitch trad climbing.
Early June should offer improving conditions, but this prolonged wet spell has kept temperatures well below seasonal norms (8.9°C average) and the crag has been locked in cloud for over a week.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 91mm in the past 7 days and 237mm in 28 days with zero consecutive dry days means the entire crag is saturated with active drainage and seepage.
Humidity has averaged 94% over the past week, with multiple days at 100%, indicating the crag is in cloud and surface evaporation is negligible.
Average temperature of 8.9°C at 600m altitude — well below seasonal norms — further suppresses evaporation and prolongs drying time.
Winds of 25–44 km/h would normally aid drying, but their effect is negated by continuous cloud immersion and ongoing precipitation.
2.7mm of rain today with 92% humidity means there has been no start to any drying window.
The east/northeast-facing crag only catches morning sun and is shaded by afternoon, restricting solar drying even when cloud breaks.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Dow Crag until there have been at least 2–3 consecutive dry days with humidity dropping below 80% — check MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service) for Coniston Fells specifically.
- Consider lower-altitude, south-facing Lake District crags (e.g. Chapel Head Scar, Scout Scar) that will dry far quicker during any forecast dry window.
- If visiting later this week, be aware that seepage lines on the buttresses may persist even after surface rock appears dry — test friction carefully on lower pitches before committing to multi-pitch routes.
Do Not Climb
95%
6 days ago
Dow Crag is thoroughly saturated after nearly 90mm of rain in the past 7 days and over 230mm in the past month, with heavy rain continuing today and 100% humidity throughout. The rock will be streaming wet with extensive seepage, and the crag is almost certainly in cloud — conditions are completely unsuitable for climbing.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's extensive seepage lines will be running heavily after 234mm in the past 28 days; even normally dry routes on the main buttresses will have water streaming down them.
- At 600m altitude the crag is almost certainly in cloud today and has been for days, with 100% humidity and 100% cloud cover preventing any meaningful drying.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road will itself be boggy and unpleasant in these conditions, and the gully approaches between buttresses may have running water.
- The east/northeast aspect means the crag loses direct sun by early afternoon even on clear days, further limiting drying potential during the upcoming forecast improvement.
Warnings
3
- Multi-pitch climbing on saturated volcanic rock at 600m in cloud with 35 km/h winds poses serious risks of slips, hypothermia, and navigational difficulty.
- Seepage lines after this volume of rain will persist for several days even after the rain stops — do not assume surface dryness means the routes are climbable.
- The approach and descent routes will be waterlogged and slippery; stream crossings near Goat's Water may be significantly swollen.
Reasoning
The rock surface is completely wet — 21.9mm falling today on top of 89.5mm in the past week, with 100% humidity all day meaning zero evaporative drying.
Despite strong winds (35 km/h), 100% humidity and persistent rain mean no drying is occurring; the east/northeast aspect and 600m altitude compound the problem significantly.
Non-porous BVS volcanic rock is not at risk of structural damage, but friction on this normally superb rock is essentially zero when wet — the primary hazard is slippery holds on multi-pitch routes.
Early June at 600m in the Lakes should offer reasonable conditions, but this has been an exceptionally wet spell; temperatures averaging 8.6°C over the past week are well below seasonal norms and hinder drying.
Contributing Factors
6
234mm over 28 days and 89.5mm in the last 7 days alone have left the entire crag saturated with extensive seepage.
Over 21mm forecast today with rain every hour from 07:00 onwards and 100% humidity throughout.
100% cloud cover and 100% humidity at 600m strongly suggest the crag is sitting in cloud, eliminating any drying.
35 km/h winds would normally aid drying, but are ineffective at 100% humidity and add dangerous wind chill on exposed multi-pitch routes.
Temperatures averaging 8.6°C over the past week — well below June norms — slow evaporation and make conditions unpleasant and potentially hypothermic.
A dry, warmer spell is forecast from June 14 with temperatures reaching 16–19°C and lower humidity, which should begin drying the crag.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Dow Crag today or in the next two days — the crag is saturated and actively wet.
- The earliest realistic window is June 15, after two consecutive dry days with warmer temperatures; even then, assess seepage lines on arrival before committing to routes.
- Consider lower-altitude, quick-drying alternatives like Chapel Head Scar or Scout Scar (limestone) if desperate to climb in the interim.
Do Not Climb
92%
8 days ago
Dow Crag is currently saturated after nearly 143mm of rain in the past seven days, with today adding further precipitation and near-100% humidity. Extensive seepage lines will be running, the rock will be thoroughly wet, and at 600m the crag is almost certainly in cloud — conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's five buttresses feature extensive seepage lines that run heavily after prolonged wet spells — after 200mm in 28 days, every gully and drainage channel will be streaming.
- The E/NE aspect loses direct sun by early afternoon, severely limiting solar drying even on clear days; the crag will remain damp far longer than valley crags.
- At 600m the crag has been in or near cloud for most of the past week (humidity 90–100%), meaning condensation alone can keep surfaces wet even between rain events.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road will itself be boggy and unpleasant; combined with strong winds (30–38 km/h) and temperatures around 6–8°C at crag level, wind chill is significant.
Warnings
3
- The crag is likely in cloud with wet rock, strong gusty winds, and wind chill bringing feels-like temperatures well below 5°C — hypothermia risk is real on multi-pitch routes.
- Extensive seepage lines will make many routes unclimbable regardless of surface drying — gullies and cracks will be streaming.
- The approach via Walna Scar road will be very boggy; river crossings near Goat's Water may be higher than normal after prolonged rain.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly wet — 143mm in 7 days with rain every day, 100% humidity on multiple days, and further showers today mean every surface, ledge, and crack is saturated with running water.
Despite strong winds aiding evaporation, the continuous cycle of rain and near-saturation humidity (94% average over the past week) has allowed zero meaningful drying; the E/NE aspect and 600m altitude compound the problem.
Non-porous BVS volcanic rock is not at risk of structural damage, but friction is severely compromised on wet rhyolite and the extensive seepage makes routes genuinely dangerous.
Early June at 600m in the Lakes can still see temperatures near freezing overnight; the current spell is unusually wet and cool, with crag-level temps around 6–8°C and persistent cloud cover.
Contributing Factors
7
143mm in the past 7 days with significant events on June 1 (44mm), June 3 (30mm), June 4 (56mm), and June 8 (33mm) have left the crag completely saturated.
Average humidity of 94% over the past week with multiple days at 100% prevents any meaningful surface drying between rain events.
Today has seen 5.7mm with further showers forecast through the afternoon, so there is no drying window.
Sustained winds of 27–38 km/h will assist surface drying once rain stops, but cannot overcome continuous moisture input.
The crag only catches morning sun and is shaded by afternoon, significantly reducing solar-driven evaporation.
With 100% cloud cover and humidity near saturation, the crag is likely sitting in cloud much of the time, depositing condensation directly on rock surfaces.
Temperatures at crag level are around 6–8°C, slowing evaporation rates considerably compared to valley venues.
Recommendations
3
- Do not attempt Dow Crag today or in the next couple of days — the crag is saturated and conditions are dangerous.
- Monitor the forecast for June 13–14 when a dry spell with warmer temperatures and lower humidity may finally allow meaningful drying.
- Consider lower-altitude, south-facing alternatives in the Lake District that will dry much faster if you need a climbing fix this week.
Do Not Climb
92%
9 days ago
Dow Crag is currently saturated after an exceptionally wet period — over 130mm in the last 7 days alone, with heavy rain continuing through this morning. Even though the rock is non-porous, extensive seepage lines, standing water on ledges, and near-zero friction make climbing unsafe today and for the immediate forecast period.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's five buttresses are laced with seepage lines that activate heavily after prolonged rain — after 130mm+ in a week these will be running freely and will take multiple dry days to subside.
- The E/NE aspect only catches morning sun and loses it by early afternoon, significantly slowing surface drying compared to south-facing crags at similar altitude.
- At 600m the crag is frequently in cloud during unsettled spells; today's 100% cloud cover and near-saturated humidity mean the rock may not dry even during dry hours.
- The 60+ minute approach via the Walna Scar road will itself be waterlogged and potentially hazardous, with swollen becks and boggy ground throughout.
Warnings
3
- The crag is currently dangerously wet with active seepage across all buttresses — climbing today risks serious injury from friction loss on slippery volcanic rock.
- Approach paths via Walna Scar road will be waterlogged with swollen stream crossings; take care even if just walking in the area.
- Temperatures at crag level are around 7°C with wind chill well below — hypothermia risk is real if caught out in wet and windy conditions.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly wet — 133mm of rain in the last 7 days with rainfall every single day, 100% humidity, and heavy rain through the early hours of today mean all surfaces and seepage lines are fully saturated.
Although strong SW/W winds (25–37 km/h) provide good surface evaporation potential, the E/NE aspect limits solar heating, and persistent high humidity (94% average over the past week) dramatically slows drying — meaningful drying has not occurred.
Non-porous BVS rhyolite does not suffer structural damage from water, but the extreme wetness creates severe friction loss on all surfaces, making climbing dangerously slippery.
Early June conditions are unusually poor this year with a prolonged Atlantic wet spell; temperatures at crag level (~7–9°C) are well below seasonal norms and further suppress drying.
Contributing Factors
7
Over 130mm in the past 7 days with rain on every single day, leaving all rock surfaces and seepage lines thoroughly saturated.
Average humidity of 94% over the past week with multiple days at 100% means evaporation has been negligible.
Approximately 25mm of rain fell overnight through early morning, re-wetting any surfaces that may have begun to dry.
Temperatures at crag level around 7–9°C provide minimal thermal energy for drying.
Sustained winds of 25–35 km/h at the exposed crag position will help strip surface moisture once rain ceases.
The crag only receives direct sun in the morning and is shaded by afternoon, reducing solar drying compared to south-facing venues.
Rain is forecast on every day through June 13th, preventing the sustained dry spell needed to clear seepage lines.
Recommendations
3
- Do not attempt Dow Crag until a sustained dry spell of at least 2–3 consecutive dry days with lower humidity allows seepage lines to subside.
- Consider lower-altitude, south-facing crags in the Lakes (e.g. Shepherd's Crag or Castle Rock of Triermain) which will dry far more quickly when a weather window arrives.
- Monitor MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service) for the Lake District rather than valley forecasts — conditions at 600m are dramatically worse than Coniston village.
Do Not Climb
95%
10 days ago
Dow Crag is currently saturated after nearly 165mm of rain in the past 7 days, with today alone bringing 27mm in near-100% humidity. The forecast offers no meaningful dry window over the next 5 days, with further heavy rain expected — the crag will remain wet and dangerous throughout.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Extensive seepage lines on the buttresses will be running heavily after this prolonged wet spell; even nominally dry sections between drainage channels are likely to have a film of moisture.
- At 600m with humidity consistently at or near 100%, the crag is almost certainly in cloud for much of the time, preventing any effective evaporative drying.
- The east/NE aspect means the crag loses direct sun by early afternoon, and given the current cloud base is likely well below 600m, meaningful solar drying is essentially nil.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road will be waterlogged and potentially hazardous in its own right; stream crossings near Goat's Water may be swollen.
Warnings
3
- Active seepage and streaming water on the buttresses makes all routes extremely slippery — a fall due to friction loss on wet volcanic rock at this multi-pitch mountain crag could be fatal.
- Wind chill at 600m in 35+ km/h winds with temperatures around 10°C creates a real hypothermia risk, especially if delayed on a wet route.
- The approach path and area around Goat's Water will be waterlogged with swollen streams after 165mm of rain — take care even if only walking in to inspect conditions.
Reasoning
The rock surface is thoroughly wet — 165mm in 7 days at near-100% humidity means standing water, active seepage on all buttresses, and no prospect of surface drying.
Despite strong winds (27–39 km/h), persistent cloud cover at crag altitude and saturating humidity (97% average) completely negate any wind-driven drying effect.
Non-porous BVS volcanic rock is not at risk of structural damage, but moss and lichen on ledges and less-trafficked holds will be extremely slippery.
Early June should be approaching peak season, but this sustained Atlantic weather pattern has brought winter-like conditions to the high fells with temperatures barely reaching 10°C at altitude.
Contributing Factors
6
Nearly 165mm in 7 days with 55.7mm on June 4th alone has thoroughly saturated the crag and surrounding hillside, feeding extensive seepage.
Humidity has been 95–100% for most of the past week, meaning even exposed surfaces cannot dry through evaporation.
27.4mm falling today with 98% humidity means the crag is actively wet right now with no drying reset in sight.
The next 5 days bring a further 67mm of rain with no consecutive dry period, preventing any meaningful drying.
Winds of 30–40 km/h at an exposed 600m crag create serious wind chill (feels-like near 0°C) and make multi-pitch climbing dangerous regardless of rock condition.
Max temperatures of 9–11°C in the valley translate to roughly 5–7°C at crag level, with wind chill dropping well below that — cold hands compound friction loss.
Recommendations
3
- Do not attempt to climb at Dow Crag this week — conditions are clearly unsafe and will not improve within the forecast window.
- Consider low-level, sheltered, non-porous alternatives such as Chapel Head Scar or Hodge Close quarry if you need a climbing fix, but check conditions carefully even there.
- Monitor MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service) for the Lake District fells before planning any return; at least 2–3 consecutive dry days with dropping humidity will be needed before Dow Crag comes back into condition.
Do Not Climb
95%
11 days ago
Dow Crag is currently saturated after 145mm of rain in the past week, with today bringing further precipitation and near-100% humidity. Extensive seepage lines will be running, the rock will be thoroughly wet and slippery, and the forecast shows continued rain for the next several days with no meaningful drying window.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Dow Crag's extensive seepage lines will be fully charged after 145mm of rain in seven days, with water running across many routes including popular classics on Buttresses A–D.
- The E/NE aspect loses direct sun by early afternoon, severely limiting solar drying — and at 600m the crag has likely been in cloud for much of the past week given sustained 95–100% humidity.
- The 60+ minute approach via Walna Scar road will itself be waterlogged and unpleasant, and conditions at the crag will be far worse than anything visible from the valley.
- Strong SW/W winds (30–39 km/h) help surface evaporation on exposed faces but cannot overcome continuous rainfall and near-saturation humidity at this altitude.
Warnings
3
- The crag is dangerously wet and slippery — attempting multi-pitch routes in these conditions risks serious injury from friction loss on wet volcanic rock.
- Strong winds (30–39 km/h) at 600m with wet rock create a high risk of hypothermia and make rope management on multi-pitch routes extremely hazardous.
- The approach path via Walna Scar will be waterlogged with swollen becks — river crossings may be difficult or dangerous after this volume of rain.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly wet: 145mm of rain in the last seven days culminating in 56mm on June 4th alone, with today adding another 4mm at 96% humidity — the crag is fully saturated with active seepage.
Zero consecutive dry days and persistent near-100% humidity mean no meaningful drying has occurred despite moderate winds; the E/NE aspect and 600m altitude further limit evaporation.
Non-porous BVS volcanic rock is not at risk of structural damage, but friction is essentially zero on wet surfaces and vegetated ledges will be treacherously slippery.
Early June at 600m with temperatures around 10°C at the crag — conditions are more reminiscent of late autumn than summer, and the crag will feel cold and hostile in strong wind and rain.
Contributing Factors
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145mm in 7 days including 56mm on June 4th has thoroughly saturated the crag and its drainage systems.
Average humidity of 96% over the past week with multiple days at 100% prevents any surface drying.
10–15mm forecast for the next two days with further showers through June 10th means no drying window is available.
After this volume of rain, Dow Crag's well-known seepage lines across multiple buttresses will be running heavily.
Winds of 27–39 km/h create dangerous conditions on exposed multi-pitch routes, compounding the wet rock hazard.
Valley temps of 10–13°C translate to approximately 6–9°C at the crag with significant wind chill, making wet climbing particularly hazardous.
Recommendations
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- Do not visit Dow Crag until at least 2–3 consecutive dry days with humidity below 80% have occurred — realistically not before June 12th at the earliest.
- Check MWIS (Mountain Weather Information Service) for the Lake District fells before any planned visit, as valley forecasts significantly understate conditions at 600m.
- If desperate to climb this week, consider low-altitude sheltered crags in the Lakes such as Chapel Head Scar (limestone, sheltered) or wait for a genuine settled spell.
Climbing Outlook