Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Earl Crag is currently wet from rain today and the preceding wet period (23mm in the last 7 days including 18.7mm on Aug 20), and the forecast shows heavy, sustained rainfall over the next 4–5 days totalling over 50mm. Conditions are clearly unsuitable for climbing now and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting at 350m means cloud base can sit directly on the crag, depositing additional moisture beyond recorded rainfall and keeping humidity near saturation.
- The bouldering-focused venue with its friction-dependent, hard gritstone texture is especially sensitive to residual moisture — even slight dampness dramatically reduces the friction these problems rely on.
- South/west aspects and exposed position normally aid drying, but with continuous rain forecast through Aug 30 these advantages are irrelevant until a sustained dry window arrives.
- The moorland peat surroundings act as a moisture reservoir, keeping ambient humidity high at the crag base even during brief dry spells between showers.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on saturated gritstone causes permanent, irreversible damage through hold breakage and grain loosening — Earl Crag's hard, friction-dependent problems are especially vulnerable.
- The rock surface may appear dry during brief dry windows between showers, but internal saturation from cumulative rainfall will persist for days — do not be deceived by a dry-looking surface.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from 4.1mm of rain today (falling midday–evening) on top of a wet preceding week including 18.7mm on Aug 20 and further rain on Aug 17–19, meaning the gritstone is thoroughly saturated internally.
Although there were 4 dry days (Aug 22–25) after the Aug 20 deluge, today's rain has re-wet the rock, and with humidity at 89% and 100% cloud cover, no meaningful drying is occurring.
The gritstone is at significant risk of hold breakage and grain loosening given sustained saturation from repeated wetting events; climbing now would cause permanent damage to this friction-dependent venue.
Late August can bring prolonged Atlantic weather systems, and the forecast confirms an extended wet spell through at least Aug 31, with temperatures too moderate and humidity too high for rapid drying.
Contributing Factors
6
4.1mm of precipitation today, with showers falling through the middle of the day and into the evening, has freshly wetted the rock surface and replenished internal moisture.
Over 50mm of rain is forecast from Aug 27–31, with the heaviest falls (21.6mm and 10.9mm) on Aug 27 and 29, ensuring the rock will remain saturated for days.
Humidity has averaged 80% over the last 7 days and is forecast to remain 86–94% through the coming week, effectively preventing evaporative drying.
Nearly 30mm fell between Aug 17–20, meaning the rock had only just begun to dry internally before today's rain re-wetted it.
The exposed hilltop normally accelerates drying significantly, but this advantage is negated when rain is actively falling and humidity remains near saturation.
Favourable solar aspects aid drying in dry weather, but 100% cloud cover today and forecast means negligible solar gain for the coming days.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Earl Crag until at least 48–72 hours of dry, breezy weather follows the end of the current wet spell — realistically no earlier than September 3–4 at the earliest.
- Monitor forecasts closely; the first potential dry window appears around Sep 1, but one dry day after this volume of rain is insufficient for porous gritstone.
- If visiting the area during the wet spell, consider non-porous alternatives such as limestone venues which are structurally unaffected by moisture (though still slippery when wet).
Previous Analyses
Marginal — Assess Conditions
62%
57 days ago
Three full dry days since the heavy 18.7mm rainfall on August 20th, with moderate temperatures and reasonable wind, have likely dried the exposed south/west-facing surfaces at Earl Crag. However, the preceding wet spell (Aug 16–20 totalling ~30mm) means deeper saturation is possible, and conditions should be visually verified before committing to climb — especially as rain returns tomorrow.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's scattered boulder and buttress layout means individual blocks dry at different rates — smaller free-standing boulders will have dried faster than larger buttresses or any features with north-facing aspects.
- The moorland hilltop setting at 350m means overnight dew and low cloud/mist can re-wet surfaces even during nominally dry periods, and the high overnight humidity (reaching 90%+ early morning today) will have slowed drying.
- The hard, almost granite-like grit at Earl Crag may have slightly lower porosity than typical gritstone, but friction-dependent climbing here demands fully dry conditions — even slight residual dampness will dramatically reduce the higher friction this rock is valued for.
- A significant wet spell is forecast from Aug 26–28 (~85mm total), which will thoroughly saturate the crag and require extended drying afterward — today may be the last viable window for over a week.
Warnings
2
- The rock surface may feel dry today while retaining internal moisture from the recent wet spell — climb conservatively and avoid heavily loading suspect holds.
- A major wet spell (75+ mm) is forecast Aug 26–28; conditions will be unsafe for an extended period afterward.
Reasoning
The last significant rain was 18.7mm on Aug 20, followed by a trace 0.2mm on Aug 21 and then three completely dry days (Aug 22–24); cumulative drying of roughly 72 hours has occurred but the preceding week's ~30mm total may have deeply saturated the rock.
The south/west aspect and exposed hilltop position have aided drying, with moderate winds (7–17 km/h) and daytime temperatures reaching 16–18°C over the dry period, though average humidity has remained around 75–80%, limiting evaporative efficiency.
After three dry days following moderate-to-heavy rain, the surface is likely dry but internal moisture could persist in thicker blocks, posing some residual risk of grain loosening on heavily loaded holds.
Mid-to-late August conditions are generally favourable for drying with reasonable daylight hours and temperatures, though the recent cool spell (avg 12°C over 7 days) has been below summer norms, slowing the drying process.
Contributing Factors
6
18.7mm fell on Aug 20 atop a preceding wet spell totalling ~30mm from Aug 16–20, meaning deep saturation was likely.
No measurable rain from Aug 22–24 has provided approximately 72 hours of uninterrupted drying time.
The hilltop location with S/W aspects maximises solar exposure and wind-driven evaporation, significantly aiding surface drying.
Average humidity around 80% and temperatures averaging only 12°C over the past week have limited evaporative drying potential.
Humidity drops to 54–57% this afternoon with 15–17 km/h wind and 17°C, providing a good final drying window before rain returns.
Light rain tomorrow (0.8mm) escalating to 36.7mm and 40.1mm on Aug 27–28 will thoroughly re-saturate the crag.
Recommendations
3
- If visiting today, go in the early-to-mid afternoon (12:00–17:00) when humidity is lowest and drying is at its peak — check rock surfaces carefully with a palm test and inspect the ground at the base of boulders for residual dampness.
- Avoid any features that are north-facing, recessed, or at the base of larger buttresses, as these will have retained moisture longest after the Aug 20 deluge.
- Do not plan any visits from Aug 26 onwards — the incoming 85mm+ of rain will require at least 3–5 days of subsequent dry weather before conditions recover.
Do Not Climb
45%
58 days ago
Heavy rain on August 20th (18.7mm) followed by only two full dry days with high humidity and modest temperatures means the gritstone is likely still holding internal moisture. While the exposed S/W aspect and wind help, the cumulative rainfall of the preceding days (Aug 17–20 totalling ~29mm) and average humidity of 84% over the past week significantly slow drying.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's boulders and shorter buttresses have relatively low mass, which can aid drying compared to large cliff faces, but the moorland hilltop setting at 350m means persistent cloud and damp air are common even in summer.
- The S/W aspect and exposed position are significant advantages for drying, but with easterly winds forecast for the next few days, the south/west-facing rock will be somewhat sheltered from the wind, reducing drying efficiency.
- The distinctive hard, almost granite-like texture of Earl Crag's gritstone may shed surface water more readily than softer grit, but internal porosity still applies — friction-dependent climbing here is especially compromised by any residual moisture.
- The moorland approach means ground conditions at the base of the boulders are a useful indicator: if the peat and grass are still sodden, the rock almost certainly retains internal moisture.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on any surfaces that feel cool or damp to the touch — gritstone loses significant strength at very low moisture levels.
- Very heavy rain forecast for August 27–28 (nearly 70mm combined) will fully re-saturate the rock and require extended drying afterwards.
Reasoning
18.7mm of rain on August 20th, preceded by 11.2mm over Aug 17–19, means the rock was thoroughly wetted; only two dry days with high humidity (81% and 79%) have passed, leaving a high probability of internal moisture remaining.
The S/W aspect and exposed hilltop position are favourable, but average humidity of 84% over the past week and moderate temperatures (~15–17°C) significantly limit evaporative drying — the 48–72+ hour guideline for heavy rain has not been fully met under these sub-optimal humidity conditions.
Gritstone at even low internal saturation levels experiences meaningful strength loss; the friction-dependent climbing style at Earl Crag amplifies the risk of hold failure or grain detachment on damp rock.
Late August temperatures are adequate for drying but the recent cool spell (lows of 3–6°C) and high humidity have created conditions more typical of early autumn than midsummer, slowing recovery.
Contributing Factors
6
18.7mm on Aug 20th plus 11.2mm over Aug 17–19 thoroughly saturated the rock, requiring extended drying time.
Two days of dry weather after heavy rain is borderline at best, and the high ambient humidity (79–81%) has limited effective evaporation.
84% average humidity over the past week drastically reduces the evaporative gradient needed for effective rock drying.
The south/south-west facing exposed hilltop position maximises solar radiation and wind exposure, giving Earl Crag above-average drying potential.
Temperatures of 15–17°C are adequate but not exceptional for drying; recent overnight lows of 3–6°C slow overnight evaporation.
Easterly winds over the next few days will partially shelter the S/W-facing rock, reducing the wind-drying advantage.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least one more full dry day (ideally until August 25th) before visiting, and check that moorland ground around the boulders is dry before climbing.
- If you do visit, apply the touch test to north-facing or sheltered surfaces — if any dampness is detectable, do not climb.
- Be aware that massive rainfall is forecast for August 27–28 (~70mm); plan sessions before then or expect to wait well into early September for conditions to recover.
Do Not Climb
30%
59 days ago
Earl Crag received 18.7mm of heavy rain just two days ago (Aug 20), followed by only trace precipitation and one full dry day. Despite the exposed S/W aspect, the rock has not had sufficient drying time — particularly given the high humidity (85% average over the last week) and moderate temperatures — and internal moisture is very likely still present.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means the boulders sit on saturated peat and heather, which acts as a moisture reservoir and slows drying from below — check the ground at the base of boulders as a proxy for rock moisture.
- The 'almost granite-like' harder rock texture may give a false sense of security regarding moisture, but it is still gritstone with the same porosity and strength-loss characteristics when wet.
- Being a collection of scattered boulders rather than a continuous buttress, individual blocks have more exposed surface area which aids drying, but low-lying or north-facing faces of individual boulders will lag significantly behind south-facing aspects.
- The friction-dependent style of climbing here makes even marginal dampness particularly hazardous — reduced friction on this rock type when slightly moist significantly increases the risk of slipping and hold failure.
Warnings
2
- The rock surface may appear dry while internally retaining dangerous levels of moisture from the recent 27mm+ of rain over Aug 18–20 — do not be deceived by surface dryness.
- Climbing on internally damp gritstone risks permanent hold breakage and route damage at this irreplaceable venue.
Reasoning
18.7mm of heavy rain on Aug 20 followed by only ~1.5 dry days with high humidity (78–81%) means the rock is almost certainly still holding significant internal moisture, well above the critical ~1% saturation threshold for strength loss.
The S/W exposed aspect and moderate wind help, but with only about 36 hours of drying in 78–81% humidity and temperatures around 15°C, evaporation rates have been modest — this is far short of the 48–72+ hours of good drying conditions needed after >10mm rainfall.
With the rock likely still internally saturated from the 18.7mm event (compounded by 4.6mm and 4.0mm in the preceding days totalling ~27mm in three days), there is a meaningful risk of grain loosening and hold breakage, especially on the friction-dependent problems Earl Crag is known for.
Late August offers reasonable daylight and temperatures for drying, but the recent spell of cool, humid, unsettled weather has limited the seasonal advantage compared to the warmer, drier conditions seen earlier in the month.
Contributing Factors
6
18.7mm fell on Aug 20, preceded by 4.6mm (Aug 19) and 4.0mm (Aug 18), totalling nearly 30mm in three days — well above the threshold requiring 48–72+ hours of quality drying.
Only approximately 1.5 dry days have elapsed since the heavy rain, far short of the minimum 48–72 hours needed after >10mm precipitation.
Average humidity over the last 7 days is 85%, and today sits at 78%, significantly limiting evaporation rates and prolonging internal moisture retention.
The south/south-westerly facing exposed hilltop location receives good solar radiation and wind, which are the most favourable drying characteristics available.
Temperatures around 14–16°C are adequate but not exceptional for driving evaporation, offering modest drying assistance.
The peat moorland setting retains water and provides a continuous moisture source at the base of boulders, slowing drying from below.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least until Aug 24–25 to allow a minimum of 4 full dry days with improving conditions before visiting.
- On arrival, check the ground at the base of boulders — if the peat or earth is damp, assume the rock is still wet internally regardless of surface appearance.
- Prioritise south-facing, overhanging, and elevated faces if you do visit; avoid low-lying slabs and north-facing boulder faces which will dry last.
Do Not Climb
92%
60 days ago
Earl Crag has received 27.8mm of rain over the last two days (18.7mm on Aug 20, 9.1mm today), following an already wet week with 39mm total. The rock will be thoroughly saturated and needs at minimum 48–72 hours of dry weather before conditions can even be assessed.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's boulder and buttress format means individual blocks may drain and dry at different rates — some sheltered faces and lower sections will hold moisture much longer than exposed upper faces.
- The moorland hilltop setting at 350m means low cloud and mist are common, which can re-wet surfaces and stall drying even during nominally dry periods.
- The friction-dependent climbing style here makes conditions particularly unforgiving when damp — the harder, granite-like grit relies heavily on skin-to-rock friction that is severely compromised by any residual moisture.
- South and west aspects combined with the exposed position are the saving graces for drying, but the recent volume of rain (39mm in 7 days) will require sustained dry weather to clear.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on saturated gritstone causes permanent, irreversible damage to holds and routes — do not climb until conditions are genuinely dry.
- The friction-dependent nature of Earl Crag's harder rock makes wet or damp conditions exceptionally dangerous for falls.
Reasoning
With 18.7mm on Aug 20 and 9.1mm today, the rock is almost certainly fully saturated — well above the ~60% critical saturation threshold and deep into the zone of maximum strength loss.
Drying has not yet begun as rain fell today; the S/W aspect and exposed position will help once dry weather arrives, but at 350m with cool temperatures (~14°C) and high humidity (83%), the first meaningful drying day is Aug 22 at the earliest.
At near-full saturation after prolonged rainfall, the gritstone will have lost 30%+ of its compressive strength, creating serious risk of hold breakage and permanent route damage.
Late August conditions are deteriorating with shorter days and cooler temperatures (averaging only 13°C over the past week), reducing drying potential compared to peak summer.
Contributing Factors
6
27.8mm fell in the last two days alone, with 39mm over the past week, leaving the rock deeply saturated.
Rain fell today (9.1mm), so no drying time has elapsed since the last significant precipitation.
Average humidity of 85% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying from the rock surface.
Temperatures averaging only 13°C at 350m altitude slow evaporation and extend required drying time.
The exposed hilltop position with south-westerly aspect will promote efficient drying once dry weather establishes.
Only Aug 22–24 are forecast dry before 1.2mm on Aug 25 and a heavy 20.4mm on Aug 26, limiting the available drying window to roughly 2.5 days.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit today or tomorrow — the rock is saturated after nearly 28mm of rain in two days and needs substantial drying time.
- The earliest realistic window to assess conditions is the afternoon of Aug 24, after approximately 2.5 dry days with improving temperatures, but apply the ground-moisture test at the crag base before climbing.
- Be aware that further heavy rain is forecast for Aug 26 (20.4mm), so any window for climbing this week is narrow at best — consider alternative non-porous venues.
Do Not Climb
92%
61 days ago
Earl Crag is currently soaked after nearly 10mm of rain today on top of 23mm over the past week; the rock will be thoroughly saturated. With ongoing drizzle through most of today and high humidity, no climbing should be attempted today or in the immediate days ahead without significant drying time.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting at 350m means persistent cloud cover and mist can keep humidity very high even when it isn't raining, significantly slowing drying.
- The boulders and buttresses are relatively small features that can dry faster than large cliff faces when conditions are good, but the exposed moorland also means they catch every passing shower.
- The friction-dependent nature of Earl Crag's hard, almost granite-like gritstone makes dry conditions especially critical — the style of climbing here relies heavily on skin-to-rock friction.
- The S/W aspect and exposed position are normally excellent for drying, but the recent sequence of wet days with high humidity has negated these advantages.
Warnings
3
- Climbing on saturated gritstone causes permanent hold breakage and route damage — Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems are especially vulnerable.
- The rock surface may appear dry while remaining saturated internally; do not be deceived by surface appearance alone.
- Further heavy rain (9.2mm) is forecast for August 25th, making the potential climbing window very short — conditions must be carefully assessed before any attempt.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly saturated after 9.7mm today, 6.9mm yesterday, and 4.0mm the day before — a cumulative 23mm in the last 4 days alone with zero consecutive dry days.
Despite the S/W aspect and exposed position, drying has been negligible because humidity has averaged 84% over the past week with near-daily precipitation events preventing any meaningful drying window.
With the rock at or near full saturation, compressive strength is reduced by an estimated 30%+ and holds are at significant risk of breakage, especially on a venue where many problems rely on small, friction-dependent features.
Mid-August should offer reasonable drying conditions, but this has been an unusually wet and cool spell with temperatures well below seasonal norms (14°C average vs typical 18–20°C), prolonging saturation.
Contributing Factors
6
9.7mm today plus 13.5mm over the previous two days means the rock is fully saturated with no drying opportunity.
There have been zero consecutive dry days leading into today, meaning the rock has had no chance to begin meaningful drying.
Average humidity of 84% over the past week severely limits evaporation rates even during rain-free hours.
Temperatures averaging only 14°C over the last week are well below summer norms, reducing evaporation and slowing drying.
The south/south-west facing exposed hilltop position will aid drying once dry weather establishes, but this advantage is currently negated by ongoing rain.
Tomorrow's forecast includes 0.8mm of precipitation which will reset any drying progress, pushing the effective drying start to August 22nd at the earliest.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today or for the next two days — the rock is saturated and needs at least 48 hours of dry weather from August 22nd onwards.
- If visiting on August 23rd or 24th, perform a thorough touch-test on the rock and check that the ground at the base of boulders is completely dry before climbing.
- Monitor the forecast closely — the 9.2mm predicted for August 25th will reset conditions, so any window for climbing is narrow (August 23rd–24th at best).
Do Not Climb
92%
62 days ago
Earl Crag is currently wet and unsuitable for climbing. Rain has fallen today (6.7mm) on top of a prolonged wet spell (12.8mm in the last 7 days), with a further 10.2mm forecast tomorrow — the rock will be thoroughly saturated with no adequate drying window in sight until at least August 22nd.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting at 350m means it is frequently enveloped in low cloud and mist during wet spells, adding moisture beyond recorded precipitation.
- The boulders and buttresses are scattered rather than forming a single large face, so individual blocks can dry at different rates — south-facing overhanging faces may dry faster than north-facing slabs.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like gritstone at Earl Crag may have slightly lower porosity than typical grit, but it remains a porous sandstone that weakens significantly when wet.
- The exposed hilltop position between Wainman's Pinnacle and Lund's Tower means wind will aid drying once rain stops, but current high humidity (84%) limits evaporative benefit.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on wet gritstone risks permanent hold breakage — Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems are especially vulnerable to damage when holds are weakened.
- The rock surface may appear dry before the interior has adequately dried — do not be deceived by surface appearance after only one dry day.
Reasoning
The rock is thoroughly saturated — 6.7mm fell today with intermittent rain through the morning, following 3.5mm yesterday and 2.0mm the day before, giving no opportunity for internal drying.
Despite the exposed, south/west-facing aspect which normally aids drying, persistent rain over the last three days combined with humidity around 84–94% means negligible net evaporation has occurred; tomorrow's 10.2mm will re-saturate any surface drying.
With the rock at or near full saturation from cumulative recent rainfall, compressive strength will be reduced by an estimated 30%+ and climbing risks permanent hold breakage on this friction-dependent venue.
Mid-August conditions are reasonable for temperature (15–16°C) but the current unsettled spell with high humidity is limiting drying capacity; no freeze-thaw concern at these temperatures.
Contributing Factors
7
6.7mm of rain has fallen today, with heavy showers through the morning leaving the rock visibly wet and internally saturated.
12.8mm over the last 7 days with no consecutive dry days means the rock has had no chance to dry internally.
10.2mm forecast for August 20th will completely re-saturate any surface drying that might occur this afternoon.
Average humidity of 79% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying even with wind exposure.
The exposed moorland setting with sustained westerly winds around 20+ km/h will accelerate drying once rain ceases and humidity drops.
The favourable south and west aspects will receive good solar radiation to aid drying once skies clear, likely from August 22nd onward.
Temperatures around 15–16°C are adequate but not strongly warm; drying will be steady rather than rapid once conditions allow.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or tomorrow — the rock is saturated and further heavy rain is forecast for August 20th.
- The earliest potentially viable window begins August 23rd after two full dry days, but assess conditions on arrival as internal moisture may persist.
- Check the base of the boulders for dampness before climbing — if the ground beneath overhangs is moist, the rock above is still wet internally.
Do Not Climb
95%
63 days ago
Earl Crag is actively receiving rain today (6.4mm total) following recent wet days, and more rain is forecast tomorrow and on the 20th. The rock will be thoroughly saturated with no meaningful drying window available in the near term.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position means it catches the full force of westerly weather systems, and the current prolonged W-flow is delivering repeated pulses of rain directly onto the crag.
- The collection of boulders and buttresses means varied drainage — some lower faces and recesses between boulders will pool water and stay wet long after upper surfaces appear dry.
- The harder, almost granite-like texture of Earl Crag gritstone may give a false impression of imperviousness, but it remains porous sandstone susceptible to the same internal moisture weakening as any grit.
- At 350m altitude, cloud base frequently sits at or below crag level in these conditions, meaning the rock is being wetted by cloud moisture even between rain showers.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on wet gritstone causes permanent hold breakage and irreversible route damage — Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems are especially vulnerable.
- The rock surface may appear dry before the interior has fully dried; allow at least 48 hours of genuinely dry weather after the last rain before climbing.
Reasoning
The rock is currently saturated from 6.4mm of rain today on top of 1.9mm yesterday and 0.6mm the day before, with zero consecutive dry days and persistent high humidity.
Despite the exposed position and S/W aspect, there has been no meaningful drying window — 100% cloud cover all day today with ongoing showers, and further rain is forecast for the 19th and 20th, so drying cannot begin until the 21st at the earliest.
With the rock thoroughly wetted and likely near full saturation from repeated rain events over the past week, compressive strength will be significantly reduced and holds are at elevated risk of breakage.
Mid-August should be favourable for drying, but this unsettled spell with cool temperatures (13–15°C) and very high humidity (88%) is slowing any drying considerably even for summer.
Contributing Factors
6
6.4mm of rain has fallen today with further showers forecast through the evening, keeping the rock thoroughly wet.
3.0mm forecast tomorrow and 9.8mm on the 20th means no drying window begins until the 21st at the earliest.
Nearly 9mm in the last 7 days and 35mm in the last 28 days indicate the rock has had limited opportunity to dry out fully this month.
Humidity has been 82–96% today with 100% cloud cover, effectively halting evaporative drying from the rock surface.
Strong westerly winds (22–30 km/h) will aid drying once rain stops, and the S/W aspect will benefit from any sun that breaks through.
At 350m in current conditions, the crag is likely sitting in or near cloud base, adding moisture even between rain showers.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Earl Crag today or in the next two days — the rock is actively wet and further rain is forecast.
- The earliest realistic climbing window is the afternoon of August 22nd, after two full dry days with improving conditions from the 21st onward.
- On arrival after the dry spell, check the ground at the base of the boulders — if the peat or grass is still damp, the rock is almost certainly still holding internal moisture.
Do Not Climb
90%
64 days ago
Earl Crag is currently wet from overnight and early morning precipitation, with extremely high humidity (90–99%) preventing any meaningful drying today. Heavy rain is forecast for tomorrow (8.1mm) and further significant rain on the 20th (10.5mm), meaning conditions will remain unsuitable for several days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position means it is frequently enveloped in low cloud and mist when humidity exceeds ~90%, which effectively halts surface drying even when no rain is falling.
- The boulders and buttresses sit directly on moorland peat, which acts as a moisture reservoir — if the ground around the blocks is boggy or damp, the rock will be holding internal moisture.
- The hard, almost granite-like texture of Earl Crag gritstone makes friction highly sensitive to residual moisture — even a thin film of dampness dramatically reduces grip on these friction-dependent problems.
- South/west aspect and exposed position are major drying assets in good weather, but today's 100% cloud cover and near-saturated humidity completely negate these advantages.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb on wet gritstone — even surface-dry rock can be critically weakened internally after repeated rain, risking permanent hold breakage.
- The friction-dependent nature of Earl Crag's problems makes even slight residual dampness a serious fall hazard.
Reasoning
The rock has received light but repeated precipitation (1.3mm on the 16th, 2.0mm today including ongoing drizzle), and near-100% humidity all morning means the surface is actively wet or at minimum damp throughout.
Despite the S/W aspect and normally exposed position, today's winds have been negligible (1–8 km/h) with 100% cloud cover and humidity consistently above 90%, meaning essentially zero net evaporation has occurred.
Gritstone at Earl Crag is porous and susceptible to strength loss when wet; with repeated wetting events over the past few days and no drying window, internal moisture levels are elevated and hold breakage risk is significant.
Mid-August should offer reasonable drying conditions, but the current unsettled spell with repeated frontal rain is suppressing temperatures to well below seasonal averages (15–17°C vs typical 20°C+), slowing any drying considerably.
Contributing Factors
6
2.0mm of drizzle and light rain has fallen today, with further rain forecast late tonight (1.4mm at 23:00), keeping the rock actively wet.
Humidity has been 86–99% throughout the day with 100% cloud cover, meaning no net evaporation is possible and the rock cannot dry.
Winds have been only 1–8 km/h for most of the day despite the normally exposed position, eliminating the usual wind-drying advantage of this crag.
8.1mm is forecast for August 18th followed by further rain on the 19th (2.2mm) and a heavy 10.5mm on the 20th, ensuring prolonged re-wetting.
Repeated light rain events on the 4th–7th, 10th, 16th, and today have kept the rock from fully drying out over the past two weeks.
The favourable aspect would normally aid drying, but 100% cloud cover today and the coming days completely negates any solar gain.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Earl Crag today or in the next few days — the rock is wet and further heavy rain is imminent.
- Monitor conditions from the 22nd onwards, which is the first dry day in the forecast; a full dry day on the 22nd plus the 23rd may begin to bring the rock into condition.
- If visiting after the rain clears, check the peat and grass at the base of the boulders — if the ground squelches underfoot, the rock is still too wet internally.
Do Not Climb
45%
65 days ago
Today has seen 1.1mm of rain with high humidity (81%), breaking a good dry spell, and the forecast shows further rain tomorrow and heavier rain on the 18th and 19th. While the preceding dry spell (Aug 11–15) would have dried the rock well, today's rain resets the clock and the incoming wet period makes conditions poor for the next several days.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position means the strong westerly winds forecast for the 18th–19th (29–35 km/h) will aid drying but also drive rain directly onto the S/W-facing rock.
- The friction-dependent, almost granite-like gritstone at Earl Crag makes moisture especially problematic — the climbing style relies heavily on skin-to-rock friction that is dramatically reduced when damp.
- Scattered boulders and buttresses on open moorland dry more uniformly than cliff faces, but lower sections and north-facing sides of individual blocks can retain moisture longer.
- The moorland setting at 350m means boggy ground conditions often persist after rain — if the peat and grass at the base of boulders is wet, the rock is almost certainly still damp internally.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb today or in the coming days — the rock is freshly wet and further rain is forecast through the 19th.
- Earl Crag's friction-dependent style makes even slightly damp rock both dangerous for climbers and damaging to holds.
Reasoning
Today's 1.1mm of rain on already-humid conditions (81% RH) has wetted the rock surface; while this is light rain, it follows a period where the rock had dried well, so internal saturation is low but the surface and near-surface layers are freshly damp.
The S/W aspect and exposed position would normally allow rapid drying of light rain within 24–36 hours, but with humidity at 81–82% and further rain forecast tomorrow (0.9mm) and heavier rain on the 18th–19th (5.1mm + 4.5mm), meaningful drying cannot begin until at least the 20th.
The cumulative rain over the coming days (11.4mm forecast) will re-saturate near-surface pore space, posing a moderate risk of grain loosening and hold breakage on the friction-dependent problems, though summer temperatures reduce freeze-thaw concerns.
Mid-August temperatures (13–20°C) and no frost risk are favourable for eventual drying, but the current unsettled spell with high humidity will slow evaporation significantly.
Contributing Factors
7
1.1mm of rain today has freshly wetted the rock surface and near-surface layers, resetting the drying clock.
The forecast shows further rain tomorrow (0.9mm), and heavier falls on the 18th (5.1mm) and 19th (4.5mm), preventing any meaningful drying for several days.
Humidity remains elevated at 80–85% through the 20th, significantly slowing evaporation even between rain events.
The exposed moorland setting with strong westerly winds (up to 35 km/h forecast) will accelerate drying once rain ceases.
South and west-facing aspects receive good afternoon and evening sun in summer, aiding evaporation when skies clear.
Five consecutive dry days (Aug 11–15) with warm temperatures up to 31°C likely dried the rock thoroughly before today's rain, meaning deep saturation levels are low.
Mid-August temperatures of 13–20°C eliminate freeze-thaw risk and support reasonable drying rates once rain stops.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until at least 48 hours after the last rain on the 19th–20th before visiting — realistically the 21st at the earliest, conditions permitting.
- Check the peat and grass at the base of the boulders on arrival: if the moorland ground is squelchy or visibly wet, the rock is almost certainly still damp internally.
- If visiting after the wet spell clears, prioritise overhanging problems and upper faces of boulders which will dry first; avoid slabs and lower sections.
Climbing Outlook