Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Earl Crag is thoroughly saturated after an exceptionally wet fortnight (82mm in 28 days, 29mm in the last 7 days alone) capped by 11.3mm of rain today. With no meaningful dry window in sight over the next five days and persistent high humidity, the gritstone will remain dangerously wet internally — climbing now or in the near future risks permanent hold damage and route degradation.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting at 350m means it is frequently enveloped in low cloud and mist during prolonged wet spells, further suppressing evaporation even when rain has technically stopped.
- The boulders and buttresses here are described as distinctively hard and friction-dependent — any residual moisture dramatically reduces the friction that makes these problems climbable, increasing both fall risk and surface wear.
- South/west aspect and exposed position are normally strong drying advantages, but these are overwhelmed by the current pattern of near-daily rainfall and humidity consistently above 80%.
- The dispersed boulder-field layout means some blocks will dry faster than others; lower boulders and north-facing sides of individual blocks will retain moisture longest and should be treated with extra caution even when conditions generally improve.
Warnings
3
- The gritstone is deeply saturated after weeks of near-daily rain — climbing risks permanent hold breakage and irreversible route damage.
- Surface drying during brief dry spells is misleading; the rock interior will remain saturated for days after rain stops given the cumulative moisture load.
- Today's 11.3mm of rain on already-saturated rock means conditions are among the worst possible for porous sandstone climbing.
Reasoning
The rock is deeply saturated: 82mm of rain over 28 days with almost no consecutive dry days, culminating in 11.3mm today, means the gritstone is well above the critical saturation threshold throughout its pore structure.
Despite the exposed, SW-facing aspect, the persistent rain every 1–2 days has allowed virtually no drying window; humidity has averaged 83% over the past week, severely limiting evaporative potential even with moderate winds.
At current saturation levels, compressive strength loss of 30–50% is highly likely, making hold breakage a serious risk — especially on the friction-dependent problems that define this venue.
Although this is nominally summer, temperatures have been well below seasonal norms (averaging only 11.4°C over the past week) and the rainfall pattern resembles autumn, meaning drying rates are far slower than one would expect for mid-June.
Contributing Factors
7
82mm over 28 days with 29mm in the last 7 days and 11.3mm today have deeply saturated the porous gritstone far beyond surface level.
There have been no consecutive dry days recently, meaning the rock has had no opportunity to begin meaningful internal drying.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week with today peaking at 99% means evaporation from the rock surface is extremely slow.
Temperatures averaging just 11.4°C over the past week are well below mid-June norms, further slowing the drying process.
Normally a strong positive for drying, but the benefit is completely negated by the relentless rainfall and high humidity of the current weather pattern.
The five-day forecast shows rain on every day (totalling ~15.7mm) with humidity remaining above 82%, providing no window for adequate drying.
Winds of 20–35 km/h are present and would normally aid drying, but cannot overcome the saturated conditions when rain falls almost daily.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag until there have been at least 48–72 hours of continuous dry weather with humidity below 70% — given the current deep saturation, even this may not be sufficient.
- Monitor the forecast beyond the current 5-day window for a sustained dry spell of 3+ days before planning a visit.
- If visiting the area, consider non-porous alternatives such as limestone venues in the Yorkshire Dales which can be climbed in damp conditions without structural damage risk.
Previous Analyses
Do Not Climb
92%
2 days ago
Earl Crag has received nearly 26mm of rain in the last 7 days across multiple events, with the most recent rainfall yesterday (2.1mm on June 13th) and only one dry day before today's trace precipitation — the rock is almost certainly still saturated internally despite its exposed aspect. The prolonged wet spell (70.5mm over 28 days with rain on almost every day for the past two weeks) means deep moisture saturation that will require a sustained dry period to resolve.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting at 350m means it is frequently in low cloud and mist, which can add surface moisture even on nominally dry days and slow evaporation significantly.
- The boulders and buttresses are relatively small features, which means they can dry faster than large continuous faces, but the persistent high humidity (82% average over 7 days) severely limits this advantage.
- The friction-dependent, almost granite-like texture of the rock here makes it particularly sensitive to residual surface moisture — even slight dampness dramatically reduces the friction these problems rely on.
- The S/W aspect and exposed wind position are normally excellent for drying, but with ongoing cloud cover (100% forecast most of today) and elevated humidity, these advantages are largely negated during this weather pattern.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on this deeply saturated gritstone risks permanent hold breakage and irreversible route damage — the rock may feel dry on the surface while remaining critically weakened internally.
- The friction-dependent nature of Earl Crag's problems makes even slight residual moisture a serious fall hazard.
Reasoning
With 70.5mm over 28 days and rain on nearly every day from June 1st to June 13th, the gritstone is deeply saturated well beyond the surface — internal pore spaces will be near maximum saturation.
Only one full dry day (June 14th) has occurred since the last significant rain, and today has trace precipitation with high humidity (78%), meaning meaningful drying has barely begun despite the exposed S/W aspect and moderate wind.
The rock is almost certainly well above the critical 1% saturation threshold where significant strength loss begins, with compressive strength likely reduced by 30%+ and holds at elevated risk of breakage.
Early June temperatures (averaging only 10.8°C over the past week) are well below seasonal norms and are hindering drying; the prolonged unsettled spell has kept the moorland waterlogged.
Contributing Factors
6
70.5mm over 28 days with rain on 13 of the last 15 days has deeply saturated the porous gritstone far beyond what surface drying can quickly resolve.
Only one dry day (June 14th) has passed since the last measurable rain, with today also recording 0.3mm trace precipitation — far short of the 48–72+ hours needed after heavy cumulative rainfall.
Humidity has averaged 82% over the past week and is forecast at 78% today with 100% cloud cover, severely limiting evaporative drying.
The exposed hilltop position and south-westerly aspect provide the best possible drying conditions for when the weather does improve, but these advantages are currently suppressed by overcast skies and high humidity.
The 7-day average temperature of 10.8°C is cool for mid-June at this latitude, reducing evaporation rates and prolonging the drying process.
Rain is forecast on each of the next four days (4.4mm, 1.4mm, 3.0mm, 1.8mm), meaning no sustained drying window will develop until at least June 20th.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today or in the coming days — the rock is deeply saturated from a prolonged wet spell and the forecast shows continued rain through at least June 19th.
- Monitor conditions from June 20th onwards; if the forecast holds dry from that date, the exposed aspect and wind may allow adequate drying by June 22nd at the earliest, but visually assess on arrival.
- If visiting the area, consider non-porous alternatives such as limestone venues which are not subject to the same structural damage concerns when damp.
Do Not Climb
92%
3 days ago
Earl Crag has received 35mm of rain in the last 7 days across multiple events, with the most recent rain (2.1mm) falling only yesterday; the rock is almost certainly still saturated internally despite today's dry weather. With persistent high humidity (82% average over the past week) and cool temperatures (~11°C average), even the exposed aspect and wind have been insufficient to meaningfully dry deeply soaked gritstone.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means the boulders sit on boggy, poorly-draining peat which holds ground moisture and wicks dampness into the rock base long after rain stops.
- The friction-dependent, almost granite-like texture of this rock makes it especially dangerous when damp — reduced friction on this style is harder to detect by touch and increases fall risk.
- Although the S/W aspect and exposed position are excellent for drying, the prolonged wet spell (rain on 10 of the last 14 days totalling ~66mm) has saturated the rock far beyond what one dry day can remedy.
- The scattered boulder and buttress format means many faces have different drainage characteristics — some sheltered faces between boulders will hold moisture much longer than the exposed tops.
Warnings
3
- The rock surface may appear dry while still being dangerously weakened internally — do not be deceived by surface appearance after only one dry day following prolonged saturation.
- Climbing on saturated gritstone causes permanent, irreversible damage to holds through grain loosening — Earl Crag's distinctive hard rock is irreplaceable.
- The friction-dependent climbing style at Earl Crag makes damp conditions an elevated fall risk even if the rock feels superficially dry.
Reasoning
With rain on 10 of the last 14 days totalling approximately 66mm, including 11.1mm on June 4th and 9.5mm on June 8th, the gritstone is deeply and thoroughly saturated — only one dry day has elapsed since the last rainfall of 2.1mm on June 13th.
Despite the exposed S/W aspect and moderate winds (~25 km/h average recently), persistent high humidity (82–92%) and cool temperatures (averaging ~11°C) have severely limited evaporative drying; one dry day is wholly inadequate to dry gritstone after this level of cumulative wetting.
The prolonged saturation poses significant risk of grain loosening and hold breakage — at this moisture level the rock may have lost 30%+ of its compressive strength, and climbing on it risks permanent damage to holds on this distinctive, irreplaceable rock.
Although it is nominally summer, temperatures have been well below seasonal norms and the persistent wet spell resembles spring conditions; the moorland altitude of 350m further suppresses drying capacity.
Contributing Factors
7
Rain fell on 10 of the last 14 days totalling ~66mm, deeply saturating the porous gritstone far beyond surface level.
Just one dry day since the last rain (2.1mm on June 13th) is entirely insufficient drying time for saturated gritstone, which needs 48–72+ hours minimum after heavy rain.
Average humidity of 82% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying, meaning even wind and sun cannot efficiently remove moisture from the rock.
Average temperatures around 11°C over the last week are well below summer norms, slowing evaporation and internal drying significantly.
The exposed hilltop with consistent 20–36 km/h winds provides the best available drying factor, but cannot overcome the cumulative moisture load in one day.
The south/south-west facing aspect maximises solar radiation for drying, which will help once consecutive dry days accumulate.
The waterlogged moorland peat surrounding the boulders holds ground moisture against the rock base, prolonging internal dampness.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today — the rock is almost certainly saturated internally after nearly two weeks of frequent rain.
- Wait for a minimum of 3 consecutive dry days with humidity below 75% before considering a visit; check the base of boulders for dampness on arrival.
- Monitor conditions and consider a visit around June 19–20 if the forecast dry spell materialises, but visually assess rock dryness before climbing.
Do Not Climb
92%
4 days ago
Earl Crag has received 36.4mm of rain over the past 7 days with precipitation on every single day including today, and the rock will be thoroughly saturated internally despite any surface drying. Even with the exposed aspect and good winds, the cumulative soaking over the past two weeks (69.2mm in 28 days, with the heaviest concentration in the last 12 days) means the gritstone needs several consecutive dry days before it will be safe to climb.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's collection of boulders and buttresses means varied drainage — some blocks will dry faster than others, but lower faces and north-facing sides of boulders will hold moisture longest.
- The moorland hilltop setting means the ground itself will be waterlogged after this prolonged wet spell, and saturated peat/grass at the base is a strong indicator that internal rock moisture remains high.
- The harder, almost granite-like texture of Earl Crag gritstone may give a false sense of security — it is still porous Millstone Grit and subject to the same strength-loss mechanisms when wet.
- The friction-dependent climbing style at Earl Crag makes damp conditions doubly dangerous: both structural integrity and surface friction are compromised.
Warnings
3
- Climbing on saturated gritstone risks permanent hold breakage — Earl Crag's harder texture does not exempt it from the same strength-loss mechanisms as all Millstone Grit.
- The friction-dependent style of climbing here makes wet or damp conditions an acute safety hazard for falls, in addition to the rock damage risk.
- After this prolonged wet spell, surface-dry rock may still be dangerously saturated internally — do not rely on visual or touch assessment alone.
Reasoning
The rock is almost certainly saturated internally after 12 consecutive days of rain totalling over 55mm, with today still recording 1.1mm — there has been no meaningful drying window.
Despite the exposed S/W aspect and moderate winds (23–36 km/h), the persistent daily rainfall and high humidity (83% average over the last week) have prevented any net drying; evaporation cannot outpace continuous re-wetting.
With prolonged saturation at these levels, compressive strength loss of 30%+ is highly likely, and the risk of hold breakage — especially on the smaller bouldering holds Earl Crag is known for — is severe.
Early June should offer reasonable drying conditions, but this unseasonably wet and cool spell (averaging only 10.8°C) has negated the seasonal advantage, and temperatures have been too low to drive rapid evaporation.
Contributing Factors
6
Rain has fallen every day for at least 12 consecutive days, totalling over 55mm and ensuring deep saturation of the porous gritstone.
Today still recorded 1.1mm of precipitation, meaning no drying window has begun yet.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying even when rain pauses.
Average temperatures of only 10.8°C over the last week are well below seasonal norms and slow evaporation rates considerably.
Strong sustained winds (23–36 km/h) and the S/W exposed hilltop will accelerate drying once rain stops, but cannot overcome continuous re-wetting.
The surrounding moorland peat will be waterlogged, contributing to ambient moisture around the crag and indicating deep rock saturation.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or for at least the next 48 hours — the rock is saturated after nearly two weeks of continuous rain.
- Monitor conditions from June 15 onwards: if the forecast dry window on the 14th–15th holds, a careful on-site assessment may become viable by mid-afternoon on the 15th at the earliest.
- Check the ground at the base of the boulders on arrival — if the peat and grass are still damp, the rock is certainly still too wet internally.
Do Not Climb
92%
5 days ago
Earl Crag has received over 40mm of rain in the last 7 days with no consecutive dry days, and today itself saw 3.6mm of precipitation. Despite the exposed aspect and strong winds, the rock will be thoroughly saturated internally and requires multiple dry days before climbing is appropriate.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's scattered boulders and buttresses mean some blocks may dry faster than others — lower, sheltered boulders nestled in the moorland will retain moisture far longer than exposed upper faces.
- The moorland hilltop setting means the ground itself acts as a moisture reservoir; saturated peat and heather at the base of boulders will continue to wick moisture into the rock even after rain stops.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like rock at Earl Crag may give a false sense of dryness on the surface while remaining saturated internally — friction-dependent problems are especially dangerous when micro-moisture is present.
- The S/W aspect and exposed position are strong drying assets, but at 350m altitude the recent cool temperatures (averaging only 11°C) and persistently high humidity (84%) have severely limited evaporation rates.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on saturated gritstone risks permanent hold breakage — the rock has been soaked for over 10 consecutive days and internal strength loss will be severe.
- Surface dryness is deceptive on gritstone after prolonged wet spells; the hard texture at Earl Crag may feel dry to the touch while remaining dangerously weak internally.
Reasoning
The rock is almost certainly saturated: 40.7mm fell in the last 7 days across nearly every day, with 3.6mm today, and humidity has averaged 84% — internal moisture levels will be very high.
Zero consecutive dry days means drying has not meaningfully begun; while the exposed S/W aspect and strong westerly winds (37.8 km/h today) will help once rain stops, the prolonged soaking means at least 48–72 hours of dry weather is needed.
With prolonged saturation over the past 10+ days, pore saturation is likely well above the critical threshold, meaning holds are at significant risk of breakage — climbing now could cause permanent damage to these gritstone boulders.
Early June should offer reasonable drying conditions, but this has been an exceptionally wet spell with below-average temperatures for the time of year, greatly slowing recovery.
Contributing Factors
7
Over 40mm in the last 7 days with rain on almost every day means the rock has had no opportunity to begin drying and will be deeply saturated.
Today received 3.6mm of rain, so the drying clock has not even started — a minimum of 48–72 hours of dry weather is needed after such prolonged soaking.
Average humidity of 84% over the past week severely limits evaporation rates even when it is not actively raining.
Average temperatures of only 11°C at 350m altitude provide limited thermal energy for evaporation, slowing drying considerably.
Strong westerly winds (25–38 km/h recently) and the exposed hilltop position will significantly accelerate drying once the rain stops.
The south/south-west facing aspect will receive good afternoon sun in June, aiding surface and subsurface drying once clear skies arrive.
The surrounding peat moorland will be waterlogged after 68.6mm in 28 days, maintaining high local humidity and wicking moisture into boulder bases.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today or tomorrow — the rock is saturated from over a week of near-continuous rain and needs at least 48–72 hours of genuinely dry weather to begin recovering.
- Monitor conditions from June 14 onwards; if the forecast dry spell holds, the earliest realistic window for an on-site assessment would be June 15–16.
- On arrival, check the ground at the base of boulders — if the peat or grass is still visibly wet, the rock will still be damp internally regardless of how the surface feels.
Do Not Climb
95%
6 days ago
Earl Crag is thoroughly saturated after a prolonged wet spell — over 40mm in the last 7 days alone with rain on every single day, including 7.5mm today. Even with the crag's exposed, south/west-facing position, the rock will need multiple consecutive dry days to begin drying internally; conditions are clearly unsafe for climbing today and for the immediate future.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means it is fully exposed to the persistent SW/W rain-bearing weather of the last 10+ days, maximising wetting despite the aspect also aiding eventual drying.
- The boulders and buttresses here sit directly on moorland peat which retains enormous amounts of water — ground moisture will wick into rock bases and prolong drying far beyond what air-drying alone would suggest.
- The harder, almost granite-like texture of Earl Crag gritstone still shares the porosity of Millstone Grit; the friction-dependent climbing style makes even subtle residual moisture a serious safety and damage concern.
- At 350m altitude, low temperatures (averaging only ~10.6°C this past week) significantly slow evaporation even when wind exposure is high.
Warnings
3
- The rock is deeply saturated and climbing now risks permanent hold breakage and route damage on this porous gritstone.
- Surface drying may occur quickly in wind but internal moisture will persist for days — do not be deceived by a dry-looking surface.
- The friction-dependent nature of Earl Crag's harder grit makes residual moisture especially dangerous for falls.
Reasoning
The rock is deeply saturated after 10 consecutive days of rain totalling over 50mm, with high humidity (83% average) preventing meaningful drying between showers.
Despite the exposed S/W aspect and strong winds, zero consecutive dry days and persistent 80–90% humidity mean no net drying has occurred; the clock on drying hasn't even started.
With prolonged saturation likely exceeding the critical 60% pore saturation threshold, compressive strength is reduced by 30%+ and holds are at serious risk of breakage — climbing now would cause permanent damage.
Although it is early summer, this has been an unusually wet and cool spell with temperatures well below seasonal norms, limiting the natural drying advantage that June would normally provide.
Contributing Factors
8
Over 40mm in the last 7 days across 7 consecutive rain days, with an additional 7.5mm today, has deeply saturated the porous gritstone.
There has not been a single fully dry day since May 31, meaning the drying clock has not started at all.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week (91% today) severely limits evaporative drying even with wind.
Sustained winds of 20–35 km/h at this exposed hilltop will significantly accelerate drying once rain stops and humidity drops.
The favourable aspect will provide good solar heating to aid drying once skies clear, expected from June 14 onwards.
Temperatures averaging only 10.6°C at 350m are well below seasonal norms, slowing the evaporative drying rate.
The peat moorland surrounding the boulders acts as a moisture reservoir, wicking water into the rock base and prolonging internal dampness.
Today's forecast shows near-continuous light rain through the afternoon and evening, adding further to already extreme saturation.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Earl Crag until at least 48–72 hours of dry weather have elapsed after the last rain — realistically not before June 16 at the earliest.
- When you do visit, check that the peat and ground at the base of the boulders is sandy-dry, not just surface-dry; if the ground squelches, the rock is still wet inside.
- Consider waiting for the warmer, drier conditions forecast from June 14–16, which with strong winds and lower humidity should begin meaningful drying of this exposed crag.
Do Not Climb
95%
8 days ago
Earl Crag is thoroughly saturated after a prolonged wet spell — nearly 48mm of rain in the last 7 days alone, with heavy rain today (11.8mm) and more forecast tomorrow. Even with the exposed, south-westerly aspect, the rock will need several consecutive dry days to recover from this level of sustained wetting.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's scattered boulders and buttresses on open moorland mean the rock is fully exposed to driving rain from all recent westerly/south-westerly systems, with no sheltered sections to remain dry.
- The moorland setting means the ground will be waterlogged and boggy, which keeps ambient humidity high at the rock surface and slows drying from below — check the base of boulders as a moisture indicator.
- The hard, almost granite-like gritstone at Earl Crag is still Millstone Grit and remains porous; the friction-dependent style of climbing here makes even slight residual moisture a serious safety and damage concern.
- At 350m altitude, cloud base frequently sits at or below crag level during unsettled spells like this, keeping the rock in near-100% humidity and preventing effective drying even between showers.
Warnings
2
- The rock is deeply saturated and structurally compromised — climbing today or in the next few days risks permanent hold breakage on Earl Crag's irreplaceable friction-dependent problems.
- The moorland approach will be very boggy and slippery; conditions underfoot at 350m in this weather are poor.
Reasoning
The rock is fully saturated after 47.6mm of rain in the past 7 days spread across multiple events with no meaningful dry window, compounded by 11.8mm today and persistently high humidity (83% average).
Despite the exposed, south/west-facing aspect and moderate winds, there has been no consecutive dry period longer than about 36 hours in the last 10 days, so drying has been negligible — each new rain event re-saturates the rock before any meaningful progress is made.
With prolonged saturation at likely well above 60% pore capacity, compressive strength is severely compromised and hold breakage risk is high, particularly on the friction-dependent problems Earl Crag is known for.
Early June should offer reasonable drying potential, but this extended unsettled spell with below-average temperatures (11–16°C) and persistent cloud cover has negated the seasonal advantage.
Contributing Factors
6
Nearly 48mm in the last 7 days across multiple events with no dry window exceeding 36 hours means the rock is deeply saturated.
Today sees 11.8mm and tomorrow a further 13.7mm forecast, ensuring continued saturation with no drying opportunity.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week, with days reaching 87–89%, severely limits evaporative drying even between showers.
Strong westerly winds (20–35 km/h) and south/west aspect will help accelerate drying once a sustained dry window arrives.
Temperatures of 12–16°C — well below seasonal norms — reduce evaporation rates and slow the drying process.
At 350m with 100% cloud cover on most recent days, the crag is likely sitting in or near cloud base, maintaining near-saturation conditions at the rock surface.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Earl Crag until at least 48–72 hours of dry weather with dropping humidity has occurred — realistically not before June 14 at the earliest.
- Monitor the forecast for June 13–14 which shows the first potential dry window; if those days deliver as forecast, conditions may begin to improve by late June 14.
- On arrival after the dry spell, check the base of boulders and moorland ground for moisture — if the peat is still squelchy or rock bases are dark and damp, the rock is not ready.
Do Not Climb
93%
9 days ago
Earl Crag has received nearly 44mm of rain over the past 7 days, including 13mm today, and the rock will be thoroughly saturated. Despite an afternoon clearing window today, there has been nowhere near enough drying time to make the gritstone safe to climb on.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means it is often enveloped in low cloud during prolonged wet spells, adding moisture via mist even between rain events.
- The boulders and buttresses here vary in size and shape — smaller, more exposed blocks may dry faster than larger buttresses with sheltered bases, but in current conditions all will be saturated.
- The distinctively hard, friction-dependent rock at Earl Crag makes damp conditions especially dangerous, as the climbing style relies heavily on skin-to-rock friction that is severely compromised when wet.
- The open moorland approach can be boggy after prolonged rain — wet ground at the crag base is a reliable indicator that the rock retains internal moisture.
Warnings
3
- Climbing on saturated gritstone risks permanent hold breakage — Earl Crag's hard, friction-dependent rock is not immune to structural damage when wet.
- Surface-dry appearance in the afternoon clearing window is deceptive; the interior of the rock remains saturated after a week of near-continuous rain.
- The forecast shows no sustained dry period in the next 5 days, so conditions will not improve meaningfully this week.
Reasoning
With 43.8mm in the past 7 days, including heavy rain today (13.1mm) on top of already saturated rock, the gritstone will be at or near full saturation internally.
The last meaningful dry spell was before May 31st; since then, rain has fallen on almost every day with high humidity (83% average), meaning virtually no effective drying has occurred despite the exposed, south/west-facing aspect.
At near-full saturation, gritstone can lose 30–50% of its compressive strength, making hold breakage a serious risk — particularly on Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems where climbers apply high lateral forces.
Early June temperatures (12–16°C) are moderate but the persistent low-pressure pattern with 87% humidity and 100% cloud cover has negated any seasonal drying advantage.
Contributing Factors
6
43.8mm over the past 7 days with rain on 6 of those days means the rock has had no opportunity to begin drying and will be deeply saturated.
13.1mm today, mostly falling in the early hours through mid-morning, has re-soaked any surface that might have begun to dry.
Average humidity of 83% over the past week severely limits evaporative drying even with wind exposure.
Sustained winds of 20–35 km/h from the west/southwest will assist surface drying once rain stops, but cannot overcome the deep saturation in a matter of hours.
Humidity drops to 50% with clearing skies from 11:00–19:00 today, which will dry the surface but not the interior of deeply soaked gritstone.
13.4mm is forecast for June 9th, ensuring any surface drying today is immediately reversed.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today or in the next several days — the rock is deeply saturated and needs a sustained dry spell of at least 3–4 days to begin approaching climbable condition.
- Monitor the forecast from June 13th onwards; if the 0.2mm on that day is negligible and dry weather follows, conditions may start to improve by mid-June.
- If visiting the area, use the moorland ground condition as a proxy — if the peat and grass around the boulders are waterlogged, the rock is certainly still too wet.
Do Not Climb
95%
10 days ago
Earl Crag is currently saturated after a prolonged wet spell totalling over 33mm in the last seven days, with rain today and more forecast every day through June 12th. The rock will have no opportunity to dry out meaningfully, and climbing would risk both hold damage and personal injury.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position means it receives the full brunt of prevailing SW/W weather systems, which have been delivering persistent rain all week.
- The bouldering-focused venue with friction-dependent, almost granite-like gritstone is particularly sensitive to residual moisture — reduced friction on damp rock will make already hard-graded problems significantly more dangerous.
- At 350m altitude, temperatures have been notably cool (averaging ~12°C) and humidity persistently high (~85%), severely limiting evaporative drying despite reasonable wind.
- The scattered boulder format means some blocks may have sheltered undersides that trap moisture, while exposed tops may appear deceptively drier — surface dryness is unreliable here.
Warnings
2
- The rock is saturated and structurally weakened — climbing now risks permanent hold breakage on Earl Crag's irreplaceable friction-dependent problems.
- Surface rock may appear drier than it is due to wind; do not be deceived — internal moisture will persist for days after rain ceases.
Reasoning
With 33mm of rain in the past seven days including rain today and on five of the last six days, the gritstone is almost certainly saturated throughout, well above the critical threshold for strength loss.
Despite the exposed aspect and SW-facing orientation that would normally aid drying, there have been zero consecutive dry days and humidity has averaged 85% — effectively preventing any meaningful drying between rain events.
Sustained saturation over multiple days means the rock is at or near full water absorption; compressive strength is likely reduced by 30%+ and hold breakage risk is very high, especially on the friction-dependent problems Earl Crag is known for.
Early June should offer good drying conditions, but this spell of cool, humid, persistent rain is atypical and has kept temperatures well below seasonal norms, compounding the slow drying.
Contributing Factors
6
Over 33mm has fallen in the last 7 days across at least 6 rain days, thoroughly saturating the porous gritstone.
1.6mm today with further rain forecast every day from June 8–12, meaning no dry window exists for meaningful drying.
Average humidity of 85% over the past week dramatically slows evaporation even with wind present.
Averaging only 12.3°C over the past week, well below what would drive efficient drying of saturated rock.
Sustained winds of 20–35 km/h on an exposed hilltop provide some drying assistance, but this is overwhelmed by continued rainfall and high humidity.
South and west-facing aspects would normally receive good solar drying, but overcast, rainy conditions have largely negated this advantage.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit Earl Crag until at least 48–72 hours of continuous dry weather with humidity below 75% has occurred.
- Monitor forecasts beyond June 12th — the first dry day shown is June 13th, meaning the earliest realistic window would be June 15–16 at the soonest if dry weather holds.
- Consider visiting a limestone or non-porous rock venue in the area if you need to climb during this wet spell.
Do Not Climb
95%
11 days ago
Earl Crag is currently saturated after a prolonged wet spell delivering over 33mm in the last week, with rain again today and no dry days in the forecast. The gritstone will be thoroughly wet internally despite any surface drying between showers, and conditions are not expected to improve for at least a week.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop setting means it is fully exposed to the prevailing SW/W rain that has dominated the last week, with no shelter from surrounding terrain or trees.
- The boulder and buttress format means many lower faces and sit-start holds will be sitting in waterlogged peat and moorland grass, further wicking moisture into the rock from below.
- The unusually hard, granite-like texture of Earl Crag's gritstone may give a false sense of security — it is still porous sandstone and subject to the same internal weakening when wet.
- Moorland drainage at 350m is poor; standing water and saturated ground around the boulders will prolong drying times significantly beyond what aspect and wind alone would suggest.
Warnings
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- Climbing on saturated gritstone risks permanent hold breakage — Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems are especially vulnerable to grain loosening when wet.
- The rock surface may appear dry between showers but internal saturation after this prolonged wet spell will be substantial — do not be deceived by surface appearance.
Reasoning
With 33.6mm of rain in the last 7 days — including 11.1mm on June 4th, 4.5mm on June 5th, and 6.3mm today — the rock is almost certainly saturated well beyond the critical 1% threshold at which significant strength loss begins.
There have been zero consecutive dry days, and although the exposed SW aspect and moderate winds would normally aid drying, persistent humidity of 84–89% and daily rainfall have prevented any meaningful evaporation or internal drying.
At current saturation levels the gritstone could be experiencing 30–50% compressive strength loss, making hold breakage a serious risk — particularly on the friction-dependent, harder-graded problems that define this venue.
Early June temperatures of 12–16°C are moderate but the unusually wet and humid spell is suppressing drying; freeze-thaw is not a concern but prolonged saturation at these temperatures still poses significant structural risk.
Contributing Factors
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Over 33mm in the last 7 days with rain on 6 of those days means the rock has had no opportunity to begin drying internally.
Average humidity of 84% over the past week, with peaks of 89%, severely limits evaporative drying even on an exposed hilltop.
There have been no consecutive dry days — the minimum 48-hour drying window required after heavy rain has not even begun.
The exposed hilltop with 20–35 km/h winds would normally accelerate drying significantly, but this advantage is entirely negated by continuous rainfall and high humidity.
The next 5 days forecast an additional 21.6mm of rain with no dry day until June 12th at the earliest, meaning conditions will not improve.
Temperatures of 12–15°C are below average for early June and reduce the rate of evaporative drying compared to warmer conditions.
Recommendations
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- Do not visit Earl Crag until at least 48–72 hours of dry weather with low humidity follows the end of this wet spell — realistically not before mid-June at the earliest.
- If you are in the area and keen to climb, consider non-porous alternatives such as limestone or whinstone venues that are structurally unaffected by moisture.
- Check the ground around the boulders on any future visit: if the peat and grass at the base is still damp, the rock is almost certainly still wet internally.
Climbing Outlook