Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Earl Crag has had 4 consecutive dry days following only a trace 0.4mm over the last week, with warm temperatures peaking at 31°C, low humidity (50–66%), and consistent wind on an exposed, south/west-facing hilltop. Conditions are genuinely dry and excellent for climbing today and tomorrow.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position and S/W aspect mean it benefits from strong wind and solar drying — it dries faster than most gritstone venues at similar altitude.
- The rock here is described as unusually hard, almost granite-like, which may mean slightly lower porosity and faster drying than typical grit, but standard gritstone drying ethics still apply.
- Being a moorland hilltop site, check the ground at the base of boulders on arrival — if the peat/grass is saturated from recent rain, lower problems may still be affected.
- The approach across open moor can be boggy even when the rock is dry; appropriate footwear for the walk-in is advisable.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 7.4mm on Aug 4 followed by 5.6mm on Aug 5, but since then only trace amounts have fallen (1.4mm Aug 6, 1.1mm Aug 7, then near-zero), giving effectively 4+ full dry days with the last 7-day total only 0.4mm.
The S/W aspect, exposed hilltop position, consistent westerly winds (17–23 km/h), warm temperatures (up to 31°C on Aug 13), and low humidity (50–66% over recent days) provide excellent drying conditions — well exceeding the 48-hour minimum needed after the light recent precipitation.
With 4+ days of strong drying conditions since any notable moisture input, internal saturation risk is negligible and hold breakage risk is at baseline summer levels.
Mid-August is peak climbing season with long days, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw concerns; the recent heatwave (31°C on Aug 13) has further accelerated rock drying.
Contributing Factors
5
Four consecutive dry days with only 0.4mm total in the last week, following a genuinely dry period since Aug 8.
S/W aspect on an exposed hilltop has received strong solar radiation, including a heatwave peaking at 31°C on Aug 13.
Consistent winds of 17–23 km/h from the west/southwest have significantly accelerated evaporation from the rock surface and interior.
Humidity has dropped as low as 50% over recent days, well below the threshold where drying stalls, allowing efficient moisture removal.
The 13mm of rain on Aug 4–5 has had 9+ days of drying including exceptional heat, far exceeding the 48–72 hour guideline for heavy rain.
Recommendations
3
- Conditions are excellent today and tomorrow — make the most of it before rain returns mid-week.
- Check the base of lower boulders on arrival as moorland peat can retain moisture, but the rock itself should be thoroughly dry.
- Be aware that forecast rain on Aug 17–18 (potentially 15mm+) will require another significant drying period before conditions are suitable again.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
85%
2 days ago
Earl Crag has had three consecutive dry days following only trace precipitation (0.4mm on Aug 10), with today's exceptional heat (32°C) and low humidity (24–50%) providing outstanding drying conditions. The exposed S/W aspect and steady winds mean the rock should be thoroughly dry, though the friction-dependent nature of the climbing here may feel slightly greasy in peak afternoon heat.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop position means it is fully exposed to wind from all westerly directions, which has provided excellent drying over the last three days.
- The harder, almost granite-like gritstone here is less porous than typical grit, which means it absorbs less water and dries somewhat faster, though the same ethical caution applies.
- The scattered boulder and buttress layout means individual blocks dry independently — check shaded north faces of individual boulders which may retain dampness longer than the main S/W-facing surfaces.
- A major rain event (27.6mm) is forecast for Aug 17, which will reset drying clocks entirely — plan sessions before then.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 5.6mm on Aug 5 (8 days ago), with only trace amounts since (1.1mm on Aug 7, 0.4mm on Aug 10), and three fully dry days with today reaching 32°C at 24% humidity — internal moisture should be fully evaporated.
The S/W aspect has received strong solar radiation during this warm spell, and sustained W/SW winds of 12–23 km/h over the past three days have significantly accelerated surface and subsurface drying, well exceeding the 48-hour guideline for light rain.
With over 72 hours of drying since the last trace precipitation and 8 days since the last significant rain event, structural risk from internal moisture is negligible in current conditions.
Mid-summer conditions are optimal for gritstone climbing with warm temperatures, long days, and no freeze-thaw risk; today's extreme heat may reduce friction on the characteristically friction-dependent problems here.
Contributing Factors
6
Three consecutive dry days since the last trace rain (0.4mm on Aug 10), and 8 days since the last significant rain (5.6mm on Aug 5), comfortably exceeding drying thresholds.
Today's temperatures reaching 32°C with humidity as low as 24% provide outstanding evaporation conditions that will have driven out any residual internal moisture.
The exposed hilltop position with S/W-facing rock and sustained westerly winds of 12–23 km/h over recent days maximises drying efficiency.
Only 1.5mm of precipitation in the last 7 days, all as trace amounts, means the rock was never deeply saturated during this period.
At 30°C+ the rubber on climbing shoes softens and skin perspiration increases, which may reduce grip on Earl Crag's characteristically friction-dependent problems.
A substantial 27.6mm rain event is forecast for August 17, which will fully reset drying conditions and likely require 48–72 hours of subsequent dry weather.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today or over the next three days (Aug 13–16) to take advantage of the current dry window before the heavy rain forecast on Aug 17.
- If climbing today, consider morning or late afternoon sessions to avoid peak heat — friction on Earl Crag's hard gritstone may be compromised above 30°C.
- Inspect north-facing sides of individual boulders for any residual dampness before committing to problems on those aspects.
Likely Safe to Climb
82%
3 days ago
Earl Crag has had two full dry days following only trace precipitation (0.4mm on Aug 10), with today bringing exceptional drying conditions — 28°C, low humidity (31–56%), and moderate wind on a south/west-facing exposed hilltop. The last significant rain was 5.6mm on Aug 5, over a week ago, and the rock should be well dried through.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position at 350m means it catches strong winds from all westerly quarters, which greatly accelerates drying but also means conditions can change rapidly.
- The distinctive hard, almost granite-like gritstone here is denser than typical grit, which may slightly slow water absorption but also means surface drying can be a reliable indicator of internal condition.
- Some boulders and north-facing facets within the collection may retain moisture longer than the predominantly S/W-facing main faces — check shaded bases and cracks individually.
- The moorland setting means boggy ground approaches; if the peat and grass at the base of boulders is still saturated, be cautious about seepage wicking into lower sections of problems.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 7.4mm on Aug 4 and 5.6mm on Aug 5 — eight and seven days ago respectively — with only trace amounts since (1.4mm Aug 6, 1.1mm Aug 7, 0.4mm Aug 10), giving ample time for the rock to dry internally.
The S/W aspect and exposed hilltop position have received strong westerly winds (12–23 km/h) and warm temperatures (19–28°C) over the past two dry days, with today's conditions being exceptional for drying at 28°C, 31% humidity, and clear skies.
With over a week since significant rainfall and excellent drying conditions, structural risk from internal moisture is very low; the gritstone should have regained full compressive strength.
Mid-August provides long daylight hours, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk, making this an optimal period for gritstone climbing.
Contributing Factors
6
Over seven days since the last significant rain (5.6mm on Aug 5), with only 0.4mm of trace precipitation on Aug 10, far exceeding the 48–72 hour guideline for heavier rain.
Today brings 28°C, humidity dropping to 31%, clear skies, and moderate wind on a south-facing exposed crag — near-ideal drying conditions.
The south/south-westerly facing exposed hilltop maximises solar radiation and wind exposure, significantly accelerating evaporation from the rock.
The 0.4mm on Aug 10 is negligible and would only have dampened the very surface, easily dried by the subsequent two warm dry days.
26.7mm over 28 days is moderate but spread across several events, and the most recent significant event was over a week ago with good drying since.
Forecast shows 2.5mm on Aug 16 and 7.0mm on Aug 17, so the current dry window is finite — today and tomorrow are the best opportunities.
Recommendations
3
- Climb with confidence today, especially during the warm, low-humidity afternoon window (12:00–18:00) when friction will be excellent on Earl Crag's distinctive grippy gritstone.
- Tomorrow (Aug 13) looks even warmer at 30°C with 51% humidity — another excellent day to visit before conditions deteriorate from Thursday.
- Check the base of boulders and any north-facing facets for residual moisture before committing, particularly on lower sections of problems near moorland ground.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
5 days ago
The most significant rain (7.4mm on Aug 4, 5.6mm on Aug 5) fell five to six days ago, followed by lighter showers (1.4mm Aug 6, 1.1mm Aug 7) and then two full dry days (Aug 8–9) with decent temperatures and wind. Today has seen only a trace of moisture (0.1mm overnight) and is clearing nicely through the afternoon, but the recent wet spell and moderate humidity levels mean on-site assessment is prudent before committing to climb.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed hilltop position and S/W aspect mean it catches afternoon sun and prevailing westerly winds, giving it above-average drying for gritstone — the strong winds on Aug 5–7 (26–32 km/h) will have aided drying significantly.
- The harder, almost granite-like texture of the rock here means friction is critical to the climbing style; even slight residual dampness will disproportionately affect the friction-dependent moves that define many problems.
- Moorland setting means the surrounding peat and heather can hold moisture and create localised humidity around the boulders, particularly at lower-lying blocks and on north-facing sides.
- Some boulders and buttresses will have seepage lines or sit in slight hollows that drain poorly — these will still be damp even when the main faces are dry.
Warnings
1
- Some thicker blocks and sheltered faces may still hold internal moisture despite appearing surface-dry — test holds carefully, especially on problems with critical small edges or friction-dependent moves.
Reasoning
The heaviest rain (13mm combined on Aug 4–5) fell 5–6 days ago, with lighter rain tapering off by Aug 7; two clear dry days with moderate wind followed, so surface moisture should be largely gone, though some internal moisture may persist in thicker blocks.
The S/W aspect and exposed hilltop position mean strong solar gain and wind exposure have driven effective drying over Aug 8–9, with winds of 17–23 km/h and temperatures around 19–22°C — approximately 48+ hours of good drying conditions since the last meaningful rain on Aug 7.
With ~48 hours of quality drying after a moderate wet spell, structural risk is low but not negligible — thicker blocks and sheltered faces may still hold enough internal moisture to weaken holds under load.
Mid-summer conditions are favourable with long daylight hours, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk; the afternoon clearing today and forecasted warm dry spell from tomorrow onward will rapidly improve conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
A total of ~15.6mm fell over the past 7 days, with the heaviest falls (13mm) on Aug 4–5, requiring extended drying time for porous gritstone.
Aug 8–9 were dry with temperatures of 19–22°C and winds of 17–23 km/h from the SW/W, providing ~48 hours of effective surface and near-surface drying.
The hilltop position and south/south-west facing rock maximise solar radiation and wind exposure, significantly accelerating drying compared to sheltered or north-facing venues.
Average humidity of 77% over the past 7 days has slowed evaporation rates, meaning drying has been less efficient than temperature and wind alone would suggest.
Humidity drops to 46% by mid-afternoon today with clearing skies, providing additional quality drying hours before a very promising forecast tomorrow.
The 0.1mm recorded overnight is negligible and will evaporate rapidly once the morning cloud clears.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon today when humidity drops below 50% and perform a thorough touch-test on the rock — if it feels cool or tacky, wait until tomorrow.
- Tomorrow (Aug 11) looks excellent with warm temperatures, low humidity, and SE winds; this is likely the best day to climb if today's rock feels borderline.
- Check lower-lying boulders and north-facing sides last, as these will be the slowest to dry — start with the most exposed south/west-facing problems at the top of the hill.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
5 days ago
Recent rain on Aug 4–7 (totalling ~15.5mm) followed by only one fully dry day (Aug 8) and a trace of rain today (Aug 9) means the rock has not had sufficient continuous drying time. However, the exposed S/W aspect, decent wind, and warm summer temperatures suggest conditions could be approaching acceptable by tomorrow — a visual check on arrival is essential.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's scattered boulders and buttresses dry more quickly than continuous cliff faces due to greater surface-area-to-volume ratio and all-round air circulation, but lower sheltered faces between boulders can trap moisture.
- The moorland hilltop setting at 350m means cloud and mist can roll in unexpectedly, re-wetting surfaces even on nominally dry days — check upland forecasts carefully.
- The unusually hard, almost granite-like gritstone here is denser than typical grit, which may slightly slow water absorption but also slows drying once wet internally.
- The S/W aspect receives excellent afternoon and evening sun in summer, which combined with the exposed hilltop wind makes this one of the faster-drying gritstone venues — but 'faster' still requires adequate dry hours after significant rain.
Warnings
2
- Today's trace of rain and only one prior dry day mean the rock has not met the two-dry-day guideline — do not climb today.
- The harder, denser gritstone at Earl Crag can appear surface-dry while retaining internal moisture; use the ground-moisture test before committing to climb.
Reasoning
Approximately 15.5mm fell between Aug 4–7, with only one full dry day (Aug 8) and a trace today (Aug 9), meaning internal moisture is likely still present in thicker sections despite surface drying.
The S/W aspect and exposed hilltop with sustained winds (17–22 km/h) and warm temperatures (~18–22°C) on Aug 8–9 will have driven meaningful surface evaporation, but the lack of two consecutive fully dry days means deeper rock sections may not have dried adequately.
With recent cumulative rainfall of ~15.5mm over four days and incomplete drying, there is a moderate risk of weakened holds and grain loosening, particularly on lower and north-facing surfaces of individual boulders.
Mid-summer conditions are favourable for drying with long daylight hours and warm temperatures, and there is no freeze-thaw risk — this is the best time of year for recovery after rain.
Contributing Factors
7
Approximately 15.5mm fell across Aug 4–7, with the heaviest falls (7.4mm and 5.6mm) on Aug 4–5, saturating the rock substantially.
Only one fully dry day (Aug 8) has passed since the last measurable rain on Aug 7 (1.1mm), and today (Aug 9) saw a further trace of 0.2mm — the two-dry-day minimum has not been met.
Today's 0.2mm is negligible in terms of re-saturation but resets the continuous dry day count and indicates unsettled conditions have not fully cleared.
The south/south-westerly facing, wind-exposed moorland hilltop at 350m receives excellent solar radiation and strong airflow, accelerating surface drying significantly.
Temperatures of 17–22°C over recent days with long daylight hours support good evaporation rates from the rock surface.
Winds of 17–32 km/h over recent days move moist air from rock surfaces efficiently, and the exposed hilltop maximises this benefit.
The next five days forecast 0.0mm precipitation with warming temperatures and moderate humidity, promising continued and improving drying conditions.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until tomorrow (Aug 10) at the earliest, then visually inspect rock surfaces and check that the ground at the base of boulders is completely dry before climbing.
- Prioritise upper, south-facing, and more exposed boulder surfaces which will have dried fastest; avoid lower faces and any north-facing or sheltered aspects.
- If visiting Aug 11–12, conditions should be significantly better — the warm, dry forecast with lower humidity makes these the best days of the coming week.
Do Not Climb
40%
6 days ago
Earl Crag has received significant recent rainfall (13mm over Aug 4–7, including 7.4mm and 5.6mm on consecutive days) with only one full dry day since the last rain on Aug 7. Despite today's favourable drying conditions, the rock is very likely still damp internally and needs more time.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position and S/W aspect mean it benefits from strong wind-driven drying, but at 350m altitude cloud and mist can roll in and stall evaporation unexpectedly.
- The distinctively hard, almost granite-like gritstone may have slightly lower porosity than typical grit, but it is still millstone grit and must be treated with full sandstone caution regarding internal moisture.
- Scattered boulders and buttresses dry at different rates — south-facing vertical faces will dry first, while north-facing sides, lower sections, and recessed features will retain moisture much longer.
- The moorland setting means the ground around the crag acts as a useful moisture indicator — if the peat or grass at the base is still damp, the rock almost certainly is too.
Warnings
2
- The rock surface may appear dry today while internal moisture remains dangerously high — do not be misled by surface appearance on friction-dependent gritstone.
- Earl Crag's harder grades demand high force on small holds; climbing on weakened wet gritstone risks permanent hold breakage on irreplaceable problems.
Reasoning
With 13mm of rain falling between Aug 4–7 (including two heavy days of 7.4mm and 5.6mm), and only one dry day since, the rock is very likely still holding significant internal moisture despite surface drying today.
Today's dry, warm (22°C), low-humidity (66%) conditions with moderate SW wind are helpful, but a single day of drying after ~13mm of rain over four days is far short of the 48–72+ hours needed for heavier rainfall on porous gritstone.
With internal moisture likely still elevated, holds are at risk of grain loosening and breakage — particularly concerning on Earl Crag's friction-dependent, harder-graded problems where maximum force is applied to small features.
Summer conditions are broadly favourable for drying, but the recent spell has been cool (avg 14.9°C) and relatively humid (75%), reducing drying efficiency below typical midsummer rates.
Contributing Factors
6
13mm fell over Aug 4–7 including two substantial days (7.4mm and 5.6mm), saturating the porous gritstone.
Only one full dry day (today) since the last rain on Aug 7, well short of the 48–72 hours needed after heavy rain.
The exposed hilltop with S/W aspect and moderate winds (17–25 km/h) significantly accelerates surface and near-surface drying.
22°C with 66% humidity and SW wind provides good evaporative conditions, but a single day is insufficient.
1.1mm fell just yesterday, resetting the drying clock and keeping the surface wet into the morning.
Average humidity of 75% over the past week has slowed drying between rain events, meaning the rock never fully dried out.
Recommendations
3
- Wait at least until Aug 11 after two full dry warm days to allow adequate internal drying — conditions look promising from that date.
- If visiting sooner, check the moorland ground at the crag base: if peat or grass is damp, the rock is certainly too wet to climb.
- Focus first on the most exposed south-facing vertical faces which will dry fastest, and avoid any recessed, north-facing, or lower features.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
62%
7 days ago
The last significant rain was 5.6mm on August 5th followed by 1.4mm on August 6th, with only one full dry day (today) since. While the exposed, south/west-facing aspect and strong westerly winds aid drying, only ~24 hours of dry weather after moderate rain is insufficient to guarantee the rock is fully dry internally — a visual check on arrival is essential.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's moorland hilltop position means it is fully exposed to wind from all directions, which is currently the strongest drying asset — sustained 21–26 km/h westerly winds directly hitting the W-facing rock.
- The 'almost granite-like' hard gritstone here is denser than typical grit, which may slow capillary absorption slightly but also means moisture can linger in the interior even when the surface feels dry.
- Scattered boulders and buttresses dry unevenly — south and west faces will dry fastest, but north-facing sides and bases of boulders may still be holding moisture from the recent 13mm+ of rain across August 4–6.
- The moorland ground around the boulders can remain boggy after wet spells; if the peat/grass at the base of problems is still saturated, treat the rock as suspect.
Warnings
2
- The friction-dependent nature of Earl Crag's hard gritstone makes residual moisture particularly dangerous — moves that rely on skin friction will fail without warning on subtly damp rock.
- Do not assume the rock is dry because the surface feels dry; internal moisture from 14mm of rain over three days can persist for 48+ hours even in exposed conditions.
Reasoning
A total of ~14.4mm fell over August 4–6 (7.4 + 5.6 + 1.4mm), with only one dry day since the last trace precipitation on August 6th, meaning internal moisture levels are likely still elevated despite surface drying.
The exposed hilltop position with sustained W/SW winds (~21–32 km/h) and the south/west aspect are working hard to dry the rock, but only ~24–30 hours of dry weather with moderate humidity (72%) is below the recommended 48-hour minimum after this volume of rain.
With potential internal moisture still present from recent moderate rainfall, there is a moderate risk of grain loosening and hold breakage, particularly on the friction-dependent problems that characterise this venue.
Mid-summer conditions with temperatures around 15–17°C and reasonable daylight hours support drying, though the recent cool spell (14–16°C) with high humidity (82–88%) has slowed the process compared to ideal summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
A total of ~14.4mm fell across August 4–6, which is a moderate accumulation requiring at least 48 hours of good drying conditions.
Just one full dry day since the last rain on August 6th is below the recommended two-day minimum for porous rock after this level of precipitation.
Sustained westerly winds of 21–32 km/h over the last two days significantly accelerate surface and near-surface drying on this fully exposed moorland site.
The S/W facing aspect receives strong afternoon sun and direct wind, giving above-average drying rates for the main climbing faces.
Average humidity over the last 7 days is 76%, and it was 82–88% during the rain days, which slows evaporative drying.
Tomorrow (Aug 8) brings 22.5°C, 68% humidity, and continued wind, which will provide a strong second day of drying.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until tomorrow (August 8th) for a more confident session — a second full dry day with warmer temperatures and lower humidity will substantially improve conditions.
- If visiting today, check the moorland ground at the base of boulders: if the peat is still sodden, the rock is likely still wet internally and should not be climbed.
- Prioritise south and west-facing faces and upper sections of buttresses, which will have dried fastest; avoid north-facing sides and low-lying boulder bases.
Do Not Climb
85%
9 days ago
Earl Crag has received repeated rainfall over the past few days — 7.4mm on Aug 4, 5.4mm on Aug 5, and 1.8mm today — totalling nearly 15mm in three days, with the rock being re-wetted before any meaningful drying could occur. Despite the exposed, south/west aspect, the gritstone will still be holding significant internal moisture and should not be climbed on today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's boulders and buttresses sit on open moorland at 350m, meaning cloud base can sit on the crag bringing persistent dampness even when rain isn't falling.
- The friction-dependent, almost granite-like texture that defines Earl Crag's climbing style is especially compromised when damp — even slight residual moisture drastically reduces the friction these problems rely on.
- South/west aspect and high wind exposure are significant drying advantages, but the repeated wetting cycle (Jul 25–26, Jul 30–31, Aug 1, Aug 4–6) means the rock has rarely been fully dry for weeks.
- Moorland peat surroundings retain water and elevate local humidity around the boulders, slowing drying at the base of problems.
Warnings
2
- Climbing on wet gritstone risks permanent hold breakage — Earl Crag's hard, friction-dependent rock is irreplaceable once damaged.
- The surface may appear dry in afternoon sunshine and wind while the interior remains saturated — do not be deceived by surface appearance alone.
Reasoning
The gritstone has been repeatedly wetted over the past two weeks with no period of more than two consecutive dry days, and today's 1.8mm of rain (mostly overnight/early morning) means the rock is currently wet or very damp internally.
Strong westerly winds (~24 km/h) and the south/west aspect will help surface drying through the afternoon, but with the last rain falling only hours ago and humidity still around 62–65%, meaningful internal drying has not yet begun.
Repeated wetting without full drying cycles means the gritstone's pore structure has been near-saturated for days, elevating the risk of hold breakage and grain loosening — particularly concerning on Earl Crag's friction-dependent problems.
Mid-summer temperatures (~15°C) are below seasonal norms, and the persistent humid westerly airflow is limiting the drying potential that would normally be expected in August.
Contributing Factors
6
7.4mm on Aug 4, 5.4mm on Aug 5, and 1.8mm today have kept the rock in a near-continuously wet state with no chance for thorough drying.
There have been zero full dry days since the last precipitation, meaning internal drying has not meaningfully started.
Average humidity over the past 7 days is 76%, and today's morning humidity reached 95%, severely limiting evaporative drying.
Sustained westerly winds of 20–25 km/h hitting the S/W-facing crag will accelerate surface drying through the afternoon.
Today's max of only 15°C is well below summer averages for this latitude, reducing the thermal energy available for evaporation.
Looking back further, 25.4mm in the past 28 days with rain on at least 10 of those days means the rock has had very few opportunities to fully dry out.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today — the rock was rained on overnight and remains wet internally.
- Wait for at least 48 hours of dry weather with low humidity before visiting; the earliest realistic window may be August 9 if the forecast holds.
- On arrival, check the peat and ground at the base of the boulders — if it is squelchy or visibly damp, the rock above is certainly not dry enough.
Do Not Climb
90%
11 days ago
Earl Crag is currently wet from rain earlier today (5.2mm total, with a heavy 4.2mm shower at 15:00) and further heavy rain (12.3mm) is forecast for tomorrow. The rock has had no meaningful drying time and conditions are unsuitable for climbing on this porous gritstone.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's exposed moorland hilltop position means it catches full weather systems from the south-west, and the recent and forecast rain is arriving on exactly those bearings.
- The harder, almost granite-like gritstone here is still porous millstone grit — the denser texture may give a false impression of dryness while the interior remains damp.
- The friction-dependent climbing style at Earl Crag makes even slight residual moisture particularly dangerous, as grades already skew hard and rely on surface texture.
- Scattered boulders and buttresses at 350m on open moorland can experience localised seepage and ground-level dampness that persists longer than the rock face itself suggests.
Warnings
3
- Climbing on wet gritstone causes permanent hold breakage and surface erosion — do not climb even if the surface appears to be drying.
- Tomorrow's forecast of 12.3mm with 88% humidity and strong SW winds will bring a thorough soaking; do not plan to visit.
- The friction-dependent style at Earl Crag makes wet or damp conditions especially hazardous for falls.
Reasoning
The rock received rain early this morning (0.4mm + 0.1mm around 04:00–05:00), a heavy shower of 4.2mm at 15:00, and further light rain at 17:00–18:00, so the gritstone is currently saturated on the surface and absorbing moisture internally.
There has been no meaningful drying period since the afternoon rain, with humidity remaining above 80% and cloud cover near 100%, so despite the S/W aspect the rock has had zero effective drying.
With the rock freshly wetted and likely above 1% saturation throughout, compressive strength is significantly reduced and climbing risks hold breakage and permanent surface damage.
Mid-summer temperatures are adequate for drying in principle, but the current unsettled spell with high humidity (75–88%) and repeated light-to-moderate rainfall events is preventing the rock from drying out between showers.
Contributing Factors
6
5.2mm of rain fell today including a heavy 4.2mm burst at 15:00, fully wetting the rock surface and driving moisture deep into the porous gritstone.
12.3mm forecast for August 5th will thoroughly re-saturate the rock before any drying from today's rain can occur.
Humidity has been 80–97% for most of today with 100% cloud cover, severely limiting evaporative drying.
Strong winds (20–37 km/h) at this exposed 350m moorland site would normally accelerate drying significantly, but cannot overcome ongoing rain and near-saturated air.
The last 7 days have seen 6.6mm across multiple small events (July 25–Aug 1), meaning the rock has had limited opportunity to fully dry out before today's heavier rain.
The favourable south/south-west aspect would aid drying in clear conditions, but persistent cloud cover today and tomorrow negates this advantage.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb at Earl Crag today or tomorrow — the rock is wet and will be re-saturated by tomorrow's 12.3mm of rain.
- Monitor conditions from August 7th onwards; if the light showers on the 6th–8th stay below forecast amounts and wind remains strong, the rock may begin to dry meaningfully.
- On arrival after a dry spell, check the ground at the base of boulders — if the peat and grass are damp, the gritstone interior is almost certainly still wet.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
12 days ago
Earl Crag has had a scattered series of light rain events over the past week (totalling ~2.7mm in 7 days), with the last trace precipitation (0.2mm) on August 1st and a dry day yesterday. Today offers a promising afternoon window with warm temps (up to 24°C), low humidity (~40%), and moderate wind, but rain is forecast from 21:00 tonight and heavier rain arrives tomorrow. A careful on-site assessment is warranted given the recent intermittent moisture and the exposed, south/west aspect which will have aided drying through the afternoon.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Earl Crag's distinctively hard, almost granite-like gritstone may shed surface moisture faster than softer grit venues, but it remains porous sandstone and the same wet-climbing ethics apply.
- The exposed moorland hilltop position means strong westerly winds have been consistently blowing across the crag, significantly aiding drying between the scattered light showers.
- South/west aspect means the crag receives good solar radiation through the afternoon — the 09:00–18:00 clear-sky window today is ideal for surface drying.
- Scattered boulders and buttresses of varying size and orientation mean some blocks will be drier than others; north-facing sides of boulders will lag behind south-facing surfaces.
Warnings
2
- Rain returns tonight from 21:00 and the next five days are persistently wet — do not assume conditions will hold beyond late afternoon today.
- The repeated light wettings over the past week mean some boulders (especially larger ones or north-facing surfaces) may retain internal moisture despite appearing surface-dry.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 6.2mm on July 26th, followed by only trace amounts (0.1–0.9mm) on several days since, with 0.2mm on August 1st being the most recent — cumulative light wetting has kept the rock from fully drying out, though individual events were trivial.
The south/west aspect and exposed position with 11–22 km/h winds, combined with today's warm afternoon (24°C, 40% humidity, clearing skies from 09:00), should have driven good evaporation from the surface, giving roughly 30+ hours since the last trace rain by mid-afternoon.
Given only trace precipitation amounts (0.2mm on Aug 1st), deep saturation is very unlikely and structural risk from internal moisture is low, though repeated light wettings over the past week mean some residual internal moisture cannot be ruled out.
Mid-summer conditions are favourable with warm temperatures, long days, and no freeze-thaw risk; this is the best time of year for gritstone drying.
Contributing Factors
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Repeated light rain events (0.2mm on Aug 1st, 0.9mm on Jul 31st, 0.2mm on Jul 30th) have intermittently re-wetted the surface over the past few days, preventing a clean extended dry spell.
Today's forecast shows clearing skies from 09:00 with temps reaching 24°C and humidity dropping to 40%, providing excellent surface drying conditions through the afternoon.
Consistent winds of 11–22 km/h across the open moorland significantly accelerate evaporation from the rock surface.
The S/W facing aspect receives strong afternoon sun, maximising solar heating and drying on the main climbing faces.
Rain is forecast from 21:00 today (1.3mm total today) and 4.2mm tomorrow, meaning the current dry window is time-limited and conditions will deteriorate.
Rain is forecast on each of the next 5 days (totalling ~14mm), meaning extended drying will not occur until at least August 9th.
Recommendations
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- If visiting today, target the early-to-mid afternoon (12:00–18:00) when conditions are warmest and driest, and leave before rain arrives around 21:00.
- Check the base of boulders and north-facing surfaces for dampness — if the ground or shaded rock feels moist, the rock is not ready.
- Postpone any plans for the next five days; the forecast shows persistent rain with no meaningful dry window until at least August 9th.
Climbing Outlook