Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
After three fully dry days (Aug 11–13) with warm temperatures and moderate wind, the rhyolite at Caseg Fraith should be largely dry on exposed surfaces. However, today's 0.1mm precipitation and elevated humidity (87%) introduce slight uncertainty, and the forecast shows persistent light drizzle over the next few days before heavier rain arrives on Aug 18.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect means it catches the prevailing westerly weather directly and receives very little direct sun, so surface moisture from drizzle or mist can linger on sheltered faces.
- At 350m on the Ogwen pass, the crag is frequently enveloped in low cloud and hill fog even when valleys are clear — climbers should check conditions on arrival as the microclimate can differ markedly from the A5 roadside.
- The bouldering here relies heavily on the exceptional grit-like friction of the rhyolite; even a thin film of moisture or condensation dramatically reduces grip and makes many problems unsafe.
- Some boulders have north-facing overhangs and recesses that trap seepage and condensation longer than the more exposed faces — check these features carefully before committing.
Warnings
2
- Hill fog and low cloud at 350m can deposit significant moisture on the rock even when no rain is forecast — be prepared to abandon plans if the crag is in cloud.
- Heavy rain is forecast for Aug 18 (10.6mm) and Aug 19 (5.1mm); avoid climbing on and immediately after those days.
Reasoning
The last significant rain was Aug 4–5 (23mm combined), followed by three excellent drying days (Aug 11–13) with temps up to 29°C, but today's trace precipitation (0.1mm) and 87% humidity may leave a thin moisture film on the rock.
The exposed position and moderate westerly winds (~19 km/h) will clear surface moisture from the non-porous rhyolite within hours of any drizzle stopping, but the NW aspect limits solar drying and the high humidity slows evaporation.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; hold breakage from moisture is not a concern.
Mid-August in Snowdonia is peak summer season with reasonable daylight hours, but Atlantic weather systems can bring rapid changes, and the forecast shows deteriorating conditions from Aug 18 onwards.
Contributing Factors
6
Aug 11–13 were completely dry with temperatures reaching 29°C, providing excellent drying conditions after the earlier wet spell.
0.1mm today with 87% humidity suggests possible drizzle or mist that could leave a moisture film on the rock surface.
Consistent winds of 15–20 km/h across the exposed high pass aid rapid surface drying on this non-porous rock.
The W/NW facing aspect receives minimal direct sunlight, slowing evaporation of any surface moisture or condensation.
At 350m the crag is prone to cloud immersion and hill fog, which can deposit moisture even without measured rainfall.
The next three days (Aug 15–17) each show 0.3–0.4mm precipitation, suggesting intermittent drizzle that may keep surfaces damp.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon if possible, allowing any morning mist or drizzle to clear and the wind to dry exposed surfaces.
- Physically touch and test the rock texture on arrival — Caseg Fraith's friction is outstanding when dry but treacherous when damp, so a quick hand-feel check is essential.
- Monitor the forecast closely; conditions are likely to deteriorate significantly from Aug 18 with heavy rain forecast, so plan sessions for the next 1–2 days if at all.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
88%
2 days ago
Caseg Fraith has had three consecutive dry days following only trace precipitation, with warm temperatures and moderate wind providing excellent drying conditions — the rock should be thoroughly dry today. Rain is forecast from tomorrow, so today represents the best window for climbing before conditions deteriorate significantly.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The W/NW aspect means the prevailing SW-W winds over recent days have blown directly onto the rock face, aiding surface drying despite limited direct sun.
- At 350m altitude, evening humidity is rising sharply (91% by 21:00) and cloud is forecast to envelop the crag from late afternoon — condensation could dampen surfaces if climbing extends into the evening.
- Caseg Fraith's exposed position near the A5 at Ogwen means it benefits from wind-assisted drying but is also the first place to catch incoming Atlantic weather fronts from the west.
- The grit-like texture of the rhyolite here provides exceptional friction when dry but can feel greasy and treacherous even from light moisture or condensation — surface feel changes quickly.
Warnings
2
- A major rain event (32.5mm) is forecast for August 17th — do not plan to climb that day.
- Evening condensation at 350m altitude can make rhyolite surprisingly slippery; retreat before dusk if humidity is rising.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 8.0mm on August 5th, eight days ago; subsequent precipitation has been trace amounts (0.1–0.4mm), and three fully dry days with moderate wind and warm temps mean the rock surface is dry.
Sustained W/SW winds of 15–20 km/h blowing directly onto the W/NW-facing rock, combined with summer temperatures up to 29°C, have provided ample drying time — even sheltered recesses should be dry after this extended period.
Rhyolite is non-porous and not susceptible to structural weakening from moisture; there is no hold breakage risk from recent weather.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm temperatures are ideal; however, a significant weather change is incoming from tomorrow with over 38mm forecast in the next six days.
Contributing Factors
5
Three consecutive dry days following a week of only trace precipitation, with the last significant rain (8.0mm) falling eight days ago.
Temperatures reaching 25–29°C over recent days have accelerated surface evaporation on the exposed rock.
Consistent 14–20 km/h winds from W/SW blow directly onto the W/NW-facing crag, enhancing drying.
Humidity rises sharply to 91% by 21:00 with full cloud cover, risking condensation on rock surfaces from late afternoon.
1.3mm forecast for August 14th marks the start of a wet spell culminating in 32.5mm on August 17th, closing the current dry window.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today — this is an excellent window; aim to finish by mid-afternoon before cloud cover and humidity increase.
- Avoid evening sessions as humidity exceeds 80% from 20:00 and condensation may form on the rock surface.
- If planning to visit later this week, wait until at least August 19th when the heavy rain forecast for the 17th–18th should have passed.
Likely Safe to Climb
88%
3 days ago
Caseg Fraith is in excellent condition today — two full dry days with warm temperatures, low humidity, and a good breeze have thoroughly dried the rock surface after only trace precipitation (0.5mm in the last 7 days). Tomorrow also looks superb, but a wet front arrives from the 14th onward.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect means it catches prevailing westerly and south-westerly winds directly, which has helped dry the rock rapidly despite the high-altitude location.
- The site sits at 350m on an exposed pass near Tryfan, so cloud can roll in quickly even on fine days — conditions can shift from dry to damp condensation with little warning.
- Some lower boulders near the road can accumulate run-off and seepage from the hillside above after rain, so check holds on these even when upper problems are dry.
- Today's exceptionally warm and dry conditions (29°C, humidity dropping to 39%) are unusual for this altitude and represent a prime weather window before the incoming frontal system.
Reasoning
Only 0.5mm of precipitation fell in the past 7 days (trace amounts on Aug 9 and 10), and two consecutive fully dry days with falling humidity and warm temperatures mean the rock surface is thoroughly dry.
Sustained moderate winds (15–22 km/h) from the south and north over the past two days, combined with today's exceptional warmth (29.5°C) and low humidity (39–59%), have ensured rapid surface evaporation on this exposed, wind-swept crag.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not absorb water, so there is no structural risk from the recent light rain; the only concern would be surface slipperiness, which is not an issue today.
Mid-summer conditions are optimal — long daylight hours, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw risk; this is the best season for high-altitude Ogwen Valley bouldering.
Contributing Factors
5
No meaningful precipitation since August 5 (8mm), with only trace amounts on Aug 9–10, and two fully dry days since give ample drying time for non-porous rhyolite.
Today's peak of 29.5°C with humidity dropping to 39% is outstanding for drying at this altitude, far above the recent 7-day average of 14.7°C.
Consistent 13–22 km/h winds at this exposed pass accelerate surface drying on the W/NW-facing boulders.
At 350m, low cloud or mist can introduce surface condensation, but today's clear skies and very low humidity make this unlikely.
A significant wet spell is forecast from the 14th with up to 20.9mm over five days, meaning this dry window is closing rapidly.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today or tomorrow to make the most of this excellent dry window before the frontal system arrives on the 14th.
- Despite the warm conditions, carry a light layer — exposed 350m crags near Tryfan can feel the wind chill when clouds roll in.
- After the forecast rain from the 14th onward, allow at least one full dry and breezy day before returning.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
5 days ago
The last significant rain was 14.9mm on Aug 4 and 8.0mm on Aug 5, followed by mostly dry days with only trace precipitation. Today's afternoon looks dry with dropping humidity, but a trace of rain overnight (0.1mm) and persistently high humidity at 350m mean surfaces could still carry residual dampness — a visual check on arrival is warranted.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect means it catches prevailing Atlantic weather directly; the recent SW/W winds will have driven moisture straight onto the rock faces.
- At 350m in the Ogwen Valley, the crag frequently sits in low cloud or mist even when lower ground is dry — humidity has been averaging 79% this week, suggesting persistent atmospheric moisture.
- The boulders' rough grit-like texture provides excellent drainage and friction when dry, but also harbours moisture in micro-features and lichen patches that can remain damp longer than smooth rhyolite.
- Roadside access near the A5 makes it easy to drive up, check conditions, and retreat quickly if surfaces are damp — a sensible approach given current borderline conditions.
Warnings
1
- Trace precipitation overnight and high overnight humidity mean early-morning rock surfaces are likely damp — do not assume dry conditions before checking.
Reasoning
The last heavy rain (14.9mm + 8.0mm) fell on Aug 4–5, giving 4–5 dry days of drying, but trace precipitation on Aug 9 (0.2mm) and today (0.1mm) combined with sustained humidity around 76–78% means surfaces may carry a film of moisture.
Moderate W/SW winds (19–24 km/h) over the past few days on this exposed site will have aided surface drying significantly, but the NW-facing aspect receives minimal direct sun and humidity has remained stubbornly high, slowing full evaporation.
Rhyolite is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage from moisture; the only concern is friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions with adequate daylight hours and moderate temperatures (14–20°C) are generally favourable, though the recent unsettled Atlantic pattern has kept the crag damper than typical summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
14.9mm on Aug 4 and 8.0mm on Aug 5 represent the most significant rain in weeks, and although 4–5 days have passed, trace precipitation since has prevented a clean drying window.
Humidity has averaged 79% over the past week and reached 95% overnight, which significantly retards surface drying at this altitude.
Consistent 17–25 km/h winds on an exposed hillside promote rapid surface evaporation on non-porous rhyolite.
Humidity drops to 58% by mid-afternoon with no rain forecast, creating a good window for surface drying and climbing from late morning onwards.
The NW-facing aspect receives very limited direct sunlight, relying almost entirely on wind and ambient temperature for drying.
Three completely dry days forecast (Aug 11–13) with rising temperatures to 32°C and dropping humidity to 53% will ensure thorough drying.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until late morning or afternoon today when humidity drops below 65% before climbing, and physically touch the rock to check for any moisture film.
- The next three days (Aug 11–13) look outstanding — warm, dry, and dropping humidity — consider targeting those days for the best friction.
- Avoid lichen-covered faces and shaded recesses where moisture may linger even when exposed surfaces feel dry.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
65%
5 days ago
Caseg Fraith received significant rain on Aug 4–5 (nearly 23mm) and has had three dry days since, but today (Aug 9) shows 0.3mm of light precipitation and humidity remains elevated at 76%. The rock is non-porous and the exposed position aids drying, but the NW-facing aspect limits direct sun, and residual dampness in sheltered spots or seepage lines is plausible — climbers should check conditions on arrival.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect means it receives very little direct sunlight, so surface moisture and condensation linger longer than at south-facing Ogwen crags.
- At 350m on an exposed pass, low cloud and mist can re-wet boulders even on nominally dry days — check the cloud base before setting off.
- The grit-like texture of BVS rhyolite here provides exceptional friction when dry but becomes treacherously slick when damp, especially on slabby landings and rounded tops.
- Some boulder problems have north-facing recesses and overhanging bases that trap seepage and condensation well after the main faces have dried.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb if low cloud or mist is sitting on the pass — the rock will be re-wetted and dangerously slippery regardless of recent dry weather.
- The grit-like BVS rhyolite texture can feel deceptively grippy when damp but loses friction suddenly under load — test holds carefully.
Reasoning
The last significant rainfall was 14.9mm on Aug 4 and 8.0mm on Aug 5, followed by three dry days and a trace of rain today (0.3mm); surface moisture on exposed faces should have largely evaporated, but sheltered and north-facing surfaces may retain dampness given 76–78% ambient humidity.
Moderate westerly and south-westerly winds (19–24 km/h) over the past three days have aided surface drying on this exposed site, but the NW aspect receives minimal direct sun, slowing evaporation compared to south-facing crags.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; there is no risk of hold breakage from moisture.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with long daylight hours, but the recent unsettled spell with high humidity (77% average over the past week) and moderate temperatures (14.8°C average) means drying has been slower than typical summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
8
Nearly 23mm fell on Aug 4–5, and smaller amounts on subsequent days, meaning the site has been repeatedly wetted over the past week.
Aug 6–8 were dry with moderate winds, allowing exposed rhyolite surfaces to shed surface water.
0.3mm recorded today means the rock may have been lightly re-wetted, though this is marginal.
Humidity has averaged 77% over the past week and sits at 76% today, slowing evaporation and increasing condensation risk at 350m altitude.
Consistent 18–25 km/h winds across the pass help strip surface moisture from the rock quickly.
The predominantly NW-facing boulders receive minimal direct sunlight, reducing solar drying and allowing damp patches to persist.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so once surface moisture evaporates the rock is structurally sound — the concern is friction, not damage.
Only 0.1mm is forecast over the next six days, with warming temperatures and falling humidity from Aug 11 onward.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon when any overnight condensation or light morning dampness has had maximum drying time — feel the rock surface for residual slickness before committing to problems.
- Prioritise west-facing and overhanging problems, which are more likely to be dry; avoid north-facing slabs and recesses that trap moisture.
- Consider waiting until Aug 11 or 12 when the forecast shows warmer temperatures (25°C+), lower humidity (63–64%), and continued dry weather — conditions will be significantly more favourable.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
6 days ago
After significant rain on Aug 4–5 (23mm total), Caseg Fraith has had three dry days with moderate westerly winds, which should have cleared surface moisture from this non-porous rhyolite. However, the W/NW aspect receives limited direct sun, humidity has remained in the mid-70s, and seepage or sheltered holds at 350m may still be damp — a visual check on arrival is strongly advised.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect means it receives little direct morning sun, and at 350m altitude it is frequently in cloud or mist, slowing surface drying even on nominally dry days.
- The boulders are exposed to wind on the high pass near the A5, which aids drying significantly — but westerly and south-westerly winds can also drive moisture directly onto the W/NW-facing surfaces.
- The rhyolite here has an unusually rough, grit-like texture that provides superb friction when dry but can feel deceptively grippy when slightly damp — test friction carefully on lower problems before committing to anything bold.
- Seepage lines and moisture trapped in cracks and between boulders can persist for days after rain at this altitude, even when open faces appear dry.
Warnings
2
- Wet rhyolite is extremely slippery despite its rough texture — do not trust apparent grip without careful friction testing.
- Rain is forecast for tomorrow (Aug 9, 2.5mm) which will reset drying; plan accordingly if visiting over the weekend.
Reasoning
23mm of rain fell on Aug 4–5, followed by three fully dry days; surface moisture on exposed non-porous rhyolite faces is likely gone, but sheltered areas and seepage lines at 350m may still hold dampness given 76% average humidity.
Three dry days with moderate winds (19–21 km/h) have provided reasonable drying, but the W/NW aspect limits solar heating, and persistent humidity in the mid-70s slows evaporation at altitude.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; there is no risk of hold breakage from moisture.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with long days and warm temperatures, though the recent cooler spell (14–17°C) and high humidity have reduced drying efficiency compared to the earlier July heatwave.
Contributing Factors
6
14.9mm on Aug 4 and 8.0mm on Aug 5 represent the most significant rain event in weeks, saturating surfaces and filling seepage lines.
Three consecutive dry days with moderate wind should have cleared surface moisture from exposed rhyolite faces.
Average humidity of 76% over the past week slows evaporation, particularly in sheltered spots and at 350m altitude.
The high, exposed pass near the A5 receives consistent wind which aids surface drying considerably.
The W/NW aspect receives minimal direct morning sun and only late-afternoon sun, reducing thermal drying compared to south-facing crags.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture and friction loss are concerns rather than structural damage.
Recommendations
3
- Visually inspect rock surfaces and test friction on easy, low problems before committing to anything committing or highball.
- Avoid shaded cracks, north-facing surfaces, and low-lying boulders where seepage and pooled moisture may persist.
- Consider visiting in the afternoon when any residual surface dampness has had maximum drying time from the late-day westerly sun angle.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
7 days ago
The last significant rain (14.9mm on Aug 4, 8.0mm on Aug 5) fell just two days ago, and despite today being the second consecutive dry day, the NW-facing aspect, 350m altitude, and elevated humidity (76%) mean some sheltered surfaces may still hold residual moisture. Conditions are improving and likely dry on exposed faces, but a visual check on arrival is warranted.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect receives very little direct sun, so seepage lines and shaded recesses can remain damp well after rain has stopped.
- At 350m on an exposed pass near Tryfan, the crag is frequently in cloud or mist, which can deposit surface moisture even without recorded precipitation.
- The rough grit-like texture of the rhyolite provides excellent friction when dry but can feel deceptively grippy when slightly damp — test holds carefully before committing.
- Roadside access from the A5 makes a quick visual inspection easy; if conditions look damp on the lower boulders, higher or more sheltered problems will be worse.
Warnings
2
- Some seepage lines and sheltered recesses may still be wet despite open faces appearing dry — test holds carefully.
- Cloud and mist can roll in quickly at 350m on the Ogwen pass, depositing moisture on rock surfaces mid-session.
Reasoning
Nearly 23mm fell across Aug 4–5, and only two full dry days have passed since; surface moisture on exposed faces has likely evaporated but sheltered NW-facing surfaces and seepage lines may still be damp.
Moderate westerly winds (17–21 km/h) and reasonable summer temperatures are assisting drying, but the NW aspect limits direct solar heating, slowing evaporation on shaded surfaces.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Midsummer conditions give the longest daylight and warmest temperatures for drying, but recent humidity averaging 76% and the crag's altitude mean drying is slower than at lower, sunnier venues.
Contributing Factors
6
14.9mm on Aug 4 and 8.0mm on Aug 5 represent a significant wetting event just two days ago.
No precipitation on Aug 6–7 has allowed initial surface drying, though two days is marginal for full drying on a shaded high crag.
The W/NW facing aspect receives minimal direct sunlight, significantly slowing evaporation of surface moisture in sheltered spots.
Strong wind exposure (17–25 km/h recently) promotes rapid surface drying on open faces despite limited sun.
Average humidity of 76% over the last week reduces evaporation efficiency and the crag at 350m may encounter low cloud or mist.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so drying is purely a surface phenomenon and no structural damage risk exists.
Recommendations
3
- Visit tomorrow (Aug 8) or later for best conditions — the extra dry day with dropping humidity (forecast 70%) will significantly improve confidence.
- On arrival, test friction on a low, exposed boulder face before attempting harder or higher problems; if it feels greasy, wait.
- Avoid north-facing or deeply recessed problems first — start on the most wind-exposed, westerly aspects where drying will be most advanced.
Do Not Climb
35%
9 days ago
Caseg Fraith has received significant rainfall over the past few days (nearly 28mm in the last week alone), and today has seen further showers through the middle of the day with high humidity — the rock is almost certainly wet or damp right now. Although the forecast improves from tomorrow, the NW-facing aspect at 350m and persistent high humidity mean surface moisture will linger.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect receives very little direct sun, so surface moisture from recent heavy rain (14.9mm on Aug 4, 8.0mm on Aug 5, 3.7mm today) will persist much longer than at sun-exposed crags.
- At 350m in the Ogwen Valley, the crag is frequently enveloped in low cloud and mist, which can re-wet surfaces even during nominally dry periods — humidity has been above 80% for much of the past week.
- The exposed position means wind can assist drying, but prevailing W/NW winds blow directly onto the rock face, potentially driving moisture into cracks and seepage lines rather than drying them.
- The rough grit-like texture of Caseg Fraith rhyolite provides superb friction when dry but can feel deceptively greasy when damp — a thin film of moisture on this textured surface is hard to detect visually.
Warnings
2
- The rock is currently wet from today's showers — do not climb this evening despite the clearing skies; insufficient drying time has elapsed.
- High humidity and cloud at 350m can re-wet surfaces overnight even without recorded precipitation — do not assume a dry forecast means dry rock.
Reasoning
With 14.9mm on Aug 4, 8.0mm on Aug 5, and 3.7mm today (including showers through midday), the rock surface is currently wet and seepage areas will be actively running.
The NW-facing aspect at 350m receives negligible direct sun, and with humidity consistently in the 80–90% range and onshore W winds, effective drying has been minimal — surfaces need at least a full dry day with lower humidity to clear.
Rhyolite is non-porous and not at risk of structural damage from moisture, so the concern is purely friction loss and climber safety on slippery surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions should normally be favourable, but this unsettled Atlantic spell with above-average humidity and below-average temperatures is hindering drying at altitude.
Contributing Factors
7
Nearly 28mm fell in the past 7 days including 14.9mm on Aug 4 and 8.0mm on Aug 5, with further showers today totalling 3.7mm.
Hourly data shows showers from 11:00–15:00 today, meaning the rock has been freshly wetted and has had no meaningful drying window.
Humidity has averaged 77% over the past week and remains in the 80s today, severely limiting evaporative drying at this altitude.
The W/NW-facing crag receives minimal direct sunlight, so drying relies almost entirely on wind and ambient conditions rather than solar heating.
Steady winds of 15–25 km/h provide some evaporative drying assistance, which is the main drying mechanism for this aspect.
The volcanic rock does not absorb water internally, so once surface moisture clears, the rock will climb well without needing extended deep-drying time.
Aug 8 is forecast completely dry with lower humidity (74%) and warmer temperatures (19.8°C), which should finally enable meaningful surface drying.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until at least August 8 afternoon for a session — by then the rock should have had a full dry day to shed surface moisture, but check conditions on arrival.
- If visiting tomorrow (Aug 7), expect damp rock especially on lower or sheltered boulders; the 0.4mm forecast drizzle and 78% humidity will not permit full drying.
- When you do visit, test friction on lower holds before committing to problems — the grit-like texture can feel deceptively dry while still carrying a slippery moisture film.
Do Not Climb
92%
11 days ago
Caseg Fraith is actively wet today with nearly 12mm of rain falling throughout the day and humidity at or near 100%. The rock will be saturated on the surface with no drying window available; climbing today would be dangerously slippery.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect means it is fully exposed to today's prevailing SW winds driving rain directly onto the rock faces, maximising wetting.
- At 350m altitude the crag is likely sitting in low cloud for much of the day (100% cloud cover, humidity 95–99%), which prevents any meaningful evaporation even during brief dry spells.
- The bouldering here relies heavily on the exceptional friction of the grit-like rhyolite texture — even a thin film of moisture dramatically reduces grip on the small, friction-dependent holds.
- Roadside access near the A5 means the crag is easy to check visually on a drive-by, which will be useful in coming days when conditions may improve.
Warnings
3
- Active rain and near-100% humidity make all bouldering surfaces extremely slippery — high risk of uncontrolled falls.
- Strong gusty winds at 350m altitude create additional hazard on exposed highball problems.
- Further rain is forecast through August 6th; do not assume brief dry spells mean the rock is safe to climb.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from persistent rain throughout the morning and early afternoon (11.8mm total today), with humidity at 97–99% preventing any surface drying.
Despite moderate SW winds (16–26 km/h), the W/NW aspect is receiving rain directly and 100% cloud cover with near-saturation humidity means zero effective drying is occurring.
Rhyolite is non-porous so there is no structural damage risk from moisture, but the friction loss on wet volcanic rock makes bouldering extremely hazardous with high fall potential.
Mid-summer should offer the best drying conditions, but this Atlantic weather system has brought cool, wet conditions well below seasonal norms (~17°C vs recent highs of 24–28°C), slowing any recovery.
Contributing Factors
5
Nearly 12mm of rain has fallen or is forecast today, with intermittent showers continuing through the evening.
Humidity has been at 91–99% all day with 100% cloud cover, completely preventing any surface evaporation.
The past week has seen 14.7mm of precipitation across multiple days, meaning the site had no chance to fully dry before today's heavy rain.
Strong SW winds (up to 26 km/h) would normally aid drying but are currently driving moisture onto the W/NW-facing rock and making conditions unpleasant.
Tomorrow brings another 1.5mm with very strong winds (37 km/h) and 87% humidity, extending the wet period before any real drying can begin.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is actively wet and dangerously slippery for bouldering.
- The earliest realistic window is August 7th after a forecast dry spell; drive past and visually check conditions before committing.
- If visiting mid-week, focus on sheltered lower-altitude alternatives or indoor walls until the crag has had at least a full dry day with dropping humidity.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
12 days ago
There is a dry window this morning and early afternoon (roughly 09:00–16:00) with clearing skies, low humidity, and warm temperatures that should dry the light overnight drizzle quickly on this exposed, non-porous rhyolite. However, rain returns from 17:00 onward and the coming days look persistently wet, so today's window is narrow and climbers should verify surface dryness on arrival.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Caseg Fraith's W/NW aspect means afternoon sun is limited and the crag can sit in cloud at 350m, but today's easterly winds and clear midday skies favour rapid surface drying.
- The exposed hilltop position and moderate winds (15–19 km/h midday) will accelerate evaporation of the light overnight drizzle on this non-porous rock.
- Seepage lines and sheltered alcoves between boulders may retain dampness longer than open faces — check landings and low overhangs carefully.
- Roadside access from the A5 makes a quick reconnaissance easy; if conditions look marginal, you can assess and retreat without a long walk-in.
Warnings
2
- Rain is forecast to return by 17:00 today — do not linger into the late afternoon as wet rhyolite loses friction rapidly.
- The next several days look persistently wet; do not assume tomorrow will offer a similar window.
Reasoning
Light overnight drizzle (totalling ~0.4 mm) dampened surfaces, but the rock is non-porous rhyolite that holds no internal moisture — only surface film needs to evaporate.
Clear skies and moderate easterly winds from 09:00–16:00 with humidity dropping to 44% and temps reaching 25°C should dry exposed surfaces within 1–2 hours, though the NW aspect limits direct solar heating.
No structural risk — rhyolite is non-porous and unaffected by moisture; the only concern is friction loss on wet surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm temperatures are favourable, though the recent shift to an unsettled Atlantic pattern with frequent frontal rain limits usable windows.
Contributing Factors
6
From approximately 09:00 to 16:00 no precipitation is forecast, with clear or partly cloudy skies and humidity dropping to the mid-40s, allowing rapid surface drying.
Scattered light showers overnight deposited ~0.4 mm, leaving residual surface moisture on the rock early this morning.
The hilltop exposure and 15–19 km/h easterly winds during the dry window will accelerate evaporation from the non-porous rock surface.
Precipitation is forecast from 17:00 onward (1.5+ mm through the evening), closing the climbing window and re-wetting surfaces.
The next five days bring 25+ mm of rain with high humidity, making today's midday window potentially the last good opportunity for several days.
Average humidity over the past week has been 79%, and at 350m altitude cloud contact is possible even during nominally dry periods.
Recommendations
3
- Aim for the 10:00–16:00 window today when surfaces should be driest; touch-test the rock on arrival and check sheltered spots between boulders for lingering dampness.
- Pack up by 16:30 at the latest — rain is forecast from 17:00 and wet rhyolite becomes dangerously slippery.
- Consider postponing if you arrive and find cloud sitting on the crag or dampness persisting in shaded hollows, as friction will be compromised.
Climbing Outlook