Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Today has seen 1.2mm of rain with high humidity (87%), and the rock is likely still damp on arrival. The forecast shows continued light precipitation over the next three days followed by a heavy deluge on August 18th, making the coming week largely unfavourable for bouldering.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Sheep Pen's exposed, perched plateau catches wind from all directions and typically dries faster than sheltered Ogwen Valley crags, but today's modest wind (14.8 km/h) and high humidity limit that advantage.
- The west-facing aspect means afternoon sun can assist drying, but with overcast skies and 87% humidity today, solar drying contribution is minimal.
- The steep scree approach takes 15 minutes and can be slippery in wet conditions — assess underfoot conditions on the walk-in as an indicator of surface moisture above.
- Some boulder problems have north-facing or sheltered facets that retain seepage and condensation longer than the main west-facing surfaces, particularly after multi-day spells of light rain like the recent pattern.
Warnings
2
- Rhyolite becomes very slippery when wet — friction-dependent slab and wall problems are particularly hazardous in damp conditions.
- The scree approach can be treacherous in wet weather; take care on the steep access path.
Reasoning
Today's 1.2mm of rain on top of several recent light showers (1.3mm on Aug 9, 0.6mm on Aug 10) means the rock surface is currently wet, despite a three-day dry spell from Aug 11–13.
The exposed position and westerly aspect would normally dry surface moisture within a few hours, but with 87% humidity and only moderate wind today, effective evaporation is significantly hampered.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; the risk is purely friction loss on damp surfaces.
Mid-August offers long daylight hours and reasonable temperatures, but the current Atlantic weather pattern is bringing repeated frontal rain with elevated humidity, limiting useful drying windows.
Contributing Factors
6
1.2mm fell today following a pattern of intermittent light rain over the past week, keeping surface moisture replenished.
Humidity at 87% today severely reduces evaporation rates even on an exposed plateau.
The perched plateau is well-exposed to wind, which normally accelerates surface drying on non-porous rhyolite.
Volcanic rock does not absorb water, so only surface moisture needs to evaporate — no internal drying required.
Continued light rain tomorrow and the next day, then a major 17mm+ event on Aug 18th, means conditions are unlikely to improve this week.
Three warm, dry days (Aug 11–13, up to 29.5°C) would have fully dried the rock before today's rain arrived.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for a confirmed dry window — the rock could dry sufficiently within hours if humidity drops and wind picks up, but today's conditions make that unlikely.
- If visiting tomorrow (Aug 15), arrive in the afternoon to allow any overnight or morning moisture to evaporate, and assess surfaces carefully before committing to problems.
- Avoid the area from Aug 18–19 when heavy rain (25mm total) is forecast; the earliest realistic good session may be Aug 20 or later depending on post-storm drying.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
90%
2 days ago
Three consecutive dry days with warm temperatures, low humidity, and steady wind have thoroughly dried the non-porous rhyolite at Sheep Pen Boulders. Today is an excellent window before a wetter spell arrives from tomorrow onwards.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The exposed plateau position at 400m catches wind from all directions, meaning even light recent showers (0.6mm on Aug 10) dry off the non-porous rhyolite within hours.
- At 400m altitude above the Ogwen Valley, cloud can roll in during the evening — humidity is forecast to rise above 80% after 9pm today, so condensation on rock is possible late in the day.
- The west-facing aspect means afternoon and evening sun will warm the rock through the prime climbing hours today, enhancing friction on the famously textured volcanic surface.
- A significant wet spell is forecast from Aug 14–18 (over 60mm total), so today represents the last reliable dry window for approximately a week.
Warnings
2
- A major rainfall event (50.8mm) is forecast for Aug 17 with strong 31 km/h winds — avoid the exposed plateau entirely on that day.
- Evening condensation is possible after 8–9pm today as humidity rises above 80% and cloud rolls in; friction may deteriorate rapidly.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 1.3mm on Aug 9, followed by three fully dry days with dropping humidity (down to 48–55%), so the non-porous rhyolite surface will be completely dry.
Consistent 15–17 km/h winds on the exposed plateau combined with warm temperatures (up to 29.5°C yesterday) and the west-facing aspect receiving afternoon sun have provided excellent drying conditions over 72+ hours.
Rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard — there is no risk of structural weakening or hold breakage from recent moisture.
Mid-summer conditions are ideal with long daylight hours, warm temperatures, and no freeze-thaw concerns; today's clear skies and moderate warmth offer prime friction conditions.
Contributing Factors
5
No rain since 0.6mm on Aug 10, with three full dry days allowing complete surface drying of non-porous rock.
Average humidity has dropped to 48–62% over the last three days with temperatures up to 29.5°C, promoting rapid evaporation.
Consistent 14–17 km/h winds on the open plateau accelerate surface drying significantly compared to sheltered valley crags.
Zero precipitation forecast throughout today with humidity staying below 60% until late evening, providing an excellent climbing window.
Cloud cover reaches 100% and humidity exceeds 80% after 8pm, meaning condensation could form on rock surfaces in the late evening.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today — this is likely the last good window before a prolonged wet spell arriving tomorrow and lasting through Aug 18.
- Aim for the prime window between mid-morning and early evening (roughly 10am–7pm) before humidity climbs and cloud envelops the plateau.
- Bring layers for the 400m altitude and be prepared for a quick descent if conditions change — the steep scree approach is less pleasant in wet weather.
Likely Safe to Climb
92%
3 days ago
Sheep Pen Boulders are in excellent condition today — two full dry days following only light rain (0.6mm on Aug 10), with today's warm temperatures (up to 28°C), low humidity (41–48%), and clear skies providing ideal drying and friction. The exposed, wind-swept plateau will have shed any residual surface moisture well before today's session.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The perched plateau position catches prevailing winds from all directions, meaning even the modest rain on Aug 10 (0.6mm) would have evaporated rapidly from the non-porous rhyolite surfaces.
- Some sheltered or north-facing boulder faces may retain dampness in seepage lines or mossy patches even after a broadly dry spell — worth a quick visual check on arrival.
- The steep 15-minute scree approach means conditions at the boulders can differ significantly from the valley floor; cloud can roll in quickly at 400m even on otherwise fine days.
- Tomorrow (Aug 13) looks like the last good window before a sustained wet spell arrives from Aug 14 onward — plan sessions accordingly.
Reasoning
The last meaningful rain was 0.6mm on Aug 10, followed by two completely dry days including today's hot, low-humidity conditions — the non-porous rhyolite will be thoroughly dry.
The west-facing, exposed aspect combined with moderate winds (15–17 km/h) and today's exceptional warmth (28°C) and low humidity (41%) means any trace surface moisture evaporated rapidly.
Rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard; there is no structural risk from the recent light precipitation — hold integrity is unaffected.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm temperatures are ideal; the recent spell of higher humidity (last week) has given way to a classic high-pressure window today.
Contributing Factors
5
No precipitation since Aug 10 (0.6mm), giving ample time for the non-porous rock to shed all surface moisture.
Today's 28°C max with humidity dropping to 41% provides outstanding evaporation and superb friction conditions.
The site's exposed 400m position catches wind from all quarters, accelerating surface drying significantly.
A sustained wet spell (3.7–10.2mm daily) is forecast from Aug 14–17, closing this dry window.
Light but frequent precipitation from late July through early August kept humidity elevated, but the last two dry days have resolved this for today.
Recommendations
3
- Make the most of today and tomorrow (Aug 13) — these are the last reliably dry days before a prolonged wet spell arrives.
- Check sheltered or north-facing boulder faces for residual dampness on arrival, particularly any mossy seepage lines.
- Carry a light waterproof for the approach; at 400m, conditions can change rapidly even when valley weather looks settled.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
70%
5 days ago
Yesterday saw 0.5mm of light rain and today had a trace of precipitation overnight, but the exposed plateau and moderate winds should have dried the non-porous rhyolite surfaces by this afternoon. Humidity has been dropping through the day and conditions from midday onward look promising, though a visual check on arrival is advised given the recent damp spell.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The plateau's fully exposed position catches prevailing winds from all directions, making it one of the fastest-drying bouldering venues in Ogwen — even light rain clears quickly.
- At 400m with a west aspect, overnight humidity regularly hits 90%+ and condensation can linger on holds into mid-morning, especially on north-facing boulder faces.
- The recent week has seen frequent light showers (13.1mm over 7 days) interspersed with short dry spells, so some sheltered or overhanging features may retain residual seepage despite the rock being non-porous.
- The steep scree approach can be slippery when damp — allow extra time and care on the 15-minute walk-in after recent rain.
Warnings
1
- The scree approach may be slippery after the recent damp spell — take care on the steep walk-in.
Reasoning
Only a trace of rain fell overnight (0.1mm) following 0.5mm yesterday, and the rock is non-porous rhyolite, so surface moisture is the sole concern — by early afternoon with humidity dropping to ~60% and moderate wind, exposed surfaces should be dry.
The west-facing, exposed 400m plateau benefits from good airflow; with winds around 12–14 km/h and humidity falling below 65% from midday, the few hours since overnight condensation should be sufficient to dry surface moisture on most holds.
Rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard — there is no risk of structural weakening or hold breakage from the recent light rainfall.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with long daylight hours; however, the recent unsettled pattern with elevated humidity (75% average over the past week) means condensation and residual dampness remain a concern at this altitude.
Contributing Factors
6
A trace of rain overnight and 0.5mm yesterday mean some surfaces may still carry residual moisture, particularly on sheltered faces.
Humidity falls to around 59–61% from midday onward today, aiding rapid surface evaporation on exposed rock.
The site's fully exposed position at 400m catches consistent wind (~14 km/h today), accelerating drying significantly.
The 75% average humidity over the past seven days and frequent light showers suggest persistent background dampness that may cause condensation on cooler rock faces.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture affects conditions and friction returns quickly once dry.
Humidity reached 100% at midnight and remained above 87% until mid-morning, so condensation likely formed on rock surfaces.
Recommendations
3
- Head up for an afternoon session (after midday) when humidity has dropped and wind has had time to clear overnight condensation from holds.
- Test friction carefully on the first few moves of any problem — if holds feel glassy or slick, wait or move to steeper overhanging problems that shed moisture faster.
- Bring a towel and soft brush; some sheltered or north-facing holds may need a gentle wipe before committing to harder problems.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
5 days ago
Today saw 0.5mm of light rain, but the exposed W-facing plateau at Sheep Pen should dry quickly given moderate SW winds; however, humidity remains elevated at 73%. Tomorrow looks dry with clearing conditions, and the rest of the five-day forecast is rain-free, so conditions should improve steadily from tomorrow onward.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The perched, exposed plateau catches wind from all directions and dries notably faster than sheltered valley crags, meaning even light showers clear within hours in favourable wind.
- At 400m with a W aspect, the boulders can sit in cloud or mist even when valleys below are clear — arriving climbers should watch for hill fog that keeps surfaces damp despite no recorded rain.
- The recent spell of scattered light rain (13.6mm over 7 days in small doses) combined with persistent humidity above 80% may leave seepage or condensation on overhanging faces and in horizontal breaks.
- The steep scree approach takes around 15 minutes and can be slippery when wet — take care on descent if afternoon showers develop.
Warnings
2
- Surfaces may be deceptively slippery from condensation or residual moisture despite no visible rain — test friction carefully on easier problems first.
- Hill fog can envelop the plateau without warning at 400m; if visibility drops, rock surfaces will become damp rapidly.
Reasoning
Today's 0.5mm of rain on top of a week of intermittent light precipitation (13.6mm total) means surface moisture is present, though the non-porous rhyolite won't have absorbed any water.
The exposed position and moderate SW winds (~19 km/h) should clear today's trace rain within a few hours, but the W aspect means only afternoon/evening sun aids drying and humidity at 73% slows evaporation.
Rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard — there is no risk of structural weakening or hold breakage from moisture.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with long daylight hours and warm temperatures, though the recent unsettled spell with elevated humidity is typical of a North Wales August.
Contributing Factors
6
0.5mm recorded today means surfaces may still carry residual moisture, especially in sheltered spots or horizontal features.
The fully exposed position at 400m catches wind from all quarters, significantly accelerating surface drying on non-porous rhyolite.
Humidity averaging 73–85% over recent days slows evaporation and can cause condensation on cool rock surfaces, particularly overnight and in early morning.
Water sits on the surface rather than soaking in, so once wind and sun clear it, the rock offers excellent friction immediately.
No rain is forecast for the next five days, with temperatures rising to the mid-20s and humidity dropping, promising steadily improving conditions.
The W-facing boulders receive sun from mid-afternoon onward, which helps drying but means morning sessions may encounter cooler, damper rock.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until tomorrow afternoon to allow today's rain to fully clear — the dry forecast and dropping humidity from Aug 10 onward should provide excellent conditions.
- If visiting tomorrow morning, physically check holds and friction before committing to harder problems, as overnight condensation at 400m is likely given the humidity.
- Tuesday through Thursday (Aug 11–13) look like the best window, with warm temperatures, lower humidity, and multiple dry days behind you — prioritise these days for projects.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
6 days ago
Three dry days with moderate wind on an exposed plateau should have cleared the 12.5mm of rain from Aug 4–5, but humidity has been elevated and the west aspect limits morning drying. The rock is likely dry on most faces but a visual check on arrival is warranted, especially on any sheltered or seepage-prone features.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The exposed plateau position catches wind from all directions, significantly accelerating drying even during the recent humid spell.
- West-facing boulders only receive direct sun from mid-afternoon onwards, so morning sessions may find residual dampness on shaded sides.
- High humidity (70–85%) over the past week can sustain a thin moisture film on rock surfaces even without rain, particularly in sheltered hollows between boulders.
- The steep scree approach can be slippery in damp conditions — take care on the 15-minute walk-in, especially if morning dew or mist is present at 400m.
Warnings
1
- Rain is forecast for tomorrow (Aug 9, ~2.6mm) — if visiting today, conditions should be at their best before they deteriorate again.
Reasoning
The significant rain on Aug 4–5 (12.5mm total) has been followed by three fully dry days with moderate winds, which on this exposed non-porous rhyolite should have cleared surface moisture from most faces.
Steady 15–19 km/h winds from W/SW over the drying period on a fully exposed plateau at 400m provide excellent airflow, though the west aspect limits solar drying to afternoons only and humidity has averaged ~70%.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; there is no hold breakage risk from recent moisture.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with long daylight hours and reasonable temperatures, though the recent cooler, more humid spell (15–17°C, 70–85% humidity) has slowed drying compared to the excellent dry period earlier in July.
Contributing Factors
6
No precipitation since Aug 5, giving non-porous rhyolite ample time to shed surface water on an exposed site.
12.5mm fell on Aug 4–5, the heaviest rain in weeks, preceded by several days of light scattered showers totalling ~5mm.
The perched, fully exposed position at 400m with consistent 15–19 km/h winds accelerates surface drying dramatically on non-porous rock.
Average humidity over the last week has been ~72%, and several days exceeded 80%, which can slow final drying and leave a moisture film in sheltered spots.
West-facing boulders receive no direct sun until afternoon, meaning shaded features may retain dampness longer, especially combined with high humidity.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so drying is purely a surface phenomenon and occurs far faster than on sandstone or gritstone.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon when the west-facing rock has had maximum sun exposure and any residual dampness has evaporated.
- Test friction carefully on your first few problems — the exceptional BVS texture should feel grippy and sharp when properly dry.
- Avoid any obvious seepage streaks or moss patches, which can remain damp for days even when surrounding rock is dry.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
72%
7 days ago
The rock has had two full dry days following moderate rain on August 4–5 (12.5mm combined), with decent wind exposure aiding drying on this non-porous rhyolite. However, recent high humidity and the west-facing aspect at 400m mean some sheltered surfaces or seepage areas may still hold residual moisture — a visual check on arrival is warranted.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The plateau's exposed, perched position catches prevailing SW/W winds well, which significantly accelerates surface drying on this non-porous rock.
- West-facing aspect means the boulders only receive afternoon and evening sun, so shaded east-facing faces and lower overhangs may retain surface dampness longer.
- At 400m in the Ogwen Valley, low cloud and hill fog can re-wet surfaces even during nominally dry periods — humidity has been elevated (70–85%) for much of the past fortnight.
- The steep scree approach takes ~15 minutes; if conditions look marginal at the base of the cwm, they may be worse on the exposed plateau above.
Warnings
1
- Friction on rhyolite drops dramatically when even slightly damp — test holds carefully on the first moves of any problem before committing to height.
Reasoning
The last significant rain fell on August 4–5 (12.5mm total), followed by two dry days with moderate wind, so exposed rhyolite surfaces should be largely dry but localised dampness in sheltered spots is possible.
Consistent 15–24 km/h winds from W/SW on an exposed plateau provide good drying conditions, though the west aspect limits direct sun to afternoons and elevated humidity (70–75%) slows evaporation somewhat.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; there is no hold-breakage risk from moisture.
Mid-summer conditions are generally favourable with long days and reasonable temperatures, though the recent cooler, damper spell with temperatures around 15–17°C at altitude is below seasonal norms.
Contributing Factors
5
Two consecutive dry days since the last rain (6.4mm on Aug 5), giving non-porous rhyolite adequate time to shed surface water on exposed faces.
The site's perched, exposed position at 400m catches prevailing winds (15–24 km/h recently), accelerating surface drying significantly.
Humidity has averaged 73% over the past week with peaks to 85%, which slows evaporation and can leave a film of moisture on textured rock surfaces.
West-facing boulders receive direct sun only in the afternoon/evening, providing moderate solar drying but leaving east-facing and shaded surfaces cooler and slower to dry.
The past week saw 13.1mm of rain spread across several days (Jul 25–Aug 5), meaning the surrounding ground and any seepage lines have been repeatedly recharged.
Recommendations
3
- Visually inspect rock surfaces on arrival — rub a hand across the rock to check for any moisture film before committing to problems, especially on north- or east-facing faces.
- Prioritise steep and overhanging problems on south- and west-facing boulders, which will have dried fastest.
- If conditions are marginal, consider returning on August 8 or 9 when continued dry weather and lower humidity should ensure fully dry rock.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
9 days ago
Recent rain on Aug 4–5 (12.5mm combined) followed by a mostly dry but humid and overcast day today means the rock is likely drying but may still carry residual surface moisture, especially on sheltered faces. The exposed, wind-swept position of Sheep Pen helps, but high humidity (79–90% through the morning) and persistent cloud cover are slowing evaporation.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Sheep Pen's perched, exposed plateau position catches wind from all directions, which significantly accelerates surface drying on this non-porous rhyolite — even a few hours of breeze can clear surface water.
- At 400m with a west aspect, the boulders may sit in cloud or mist during humid northwesterly/westerly airflows, which can deposit condensation and negate drying even without recorded precipitation.
- Some boulder faces and overhangs can harbour seepage from the hillside above after multi-day wet spells — the 13mm over the past week may still be feeding minor seepage lines.
- The steep scree approach can be slippery when wet; take care on the 15-minute walk in, especially in damp conditions.
Warnings
2
- Friction on rhyolite drops dramatically when even slightly damp — test the surface carefully before attempting any committing moves, especially on slabs and technical faces.
- The scree approach may be greasy after recent rain; take care and allow extra time.
Reasoning
The rock received 12.5mm of rain over Aug 4–5 and a trace today (0.1mm); with only one full dry day between (Aug 6 barely counts given high humidity and cloud), surface moisture is likely present on sheltered or north-facing faces though wind-exposed surfaces may be dry.
The exposed plateau and steady 15–25 km/h westerly winds aid drying, but today's persistent 80%+ humidity and full cloud cover through the morning significantly reduce evaporation rates, meaning drying has been slower than the site's usual quick turnaround.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; there is no risk of hold breakage from moisture.
Mid-summer conditions offer long daylight hours and reasonable temperatures, but the recent shift to cooler, more humid Atlantic weather has reduced drying potential compared to the warm, dry spell earlier in July.
Contributing Factors
6
12.5mm fell over Aug 4–5 with only one intervening day of minimal drying before today's trace rain.
The plateau catches wind from all directions, with 21 km/h westerlies today helping to clear surface water from exposed faces.
Humidity has been 79–90% through much of today, slowing evaporation and potentially depositing condensation on cool rock surfaces.
Water sits on the surface rather than being absorbed, so once surface moisture evaporates the rock is immediately climbable.
100% cloud through most of today limits solar heating of the rock, which is needed to drive off residual moisture.
Humidity drops to the mid-60s by late afternoon with some cloud breaks, suggesting a late-day drying window.
Recommendations
3
- If visiting today, wait until late afternoon (after 16:00) when humidity drops and any clearing may accelerate drying — check surfaces with a palm test before committing to problems.
- Prioritise steep overhanging problems and wind-exposed faces, which will have dried fastest; avoid slabby or sheltered problems where moisture lingers.
- Friday Aug 8 and Saturday Aug 9 look like the best window this week — plan a session then if conditions today prove too damp.
Do Not Climb
85%
11 days ago
Sheep Pen Boulders are currently wet from today's intermittent rain (4.6mm throughout the day), with humidity consistently above 85% and 100% cloud cover preventing any meaningful drying. The rock will be slippery and conditions are unsuitable for climbing today.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 400m on an exposed plateau, the site is likely in cloud today given 100% cloud cover and very high humidity — condensation will keep surfaces wet even between rain showers.
- The west-facing aspect means the boulders receive afternoon/evening sun, but today's persistent overcast eliminates any solar drying benefit.
- The exposed position normally aids rapid wind-drying, but with humidity above 85% and intermittent drizzle throughout the day, wind cannot effectively remove moisture.
- The steep scree approach will be slippery in these conditions — factor this into your decision even if rock appears marginally drier later.
Warnings
2
- Rock surfaces will be very slippery — rhyolite loses friction dramatically when wet, creating a serious fall risk on steep boulder problems.
- The scree approach is hazardous in wet conditions; take extra care on the 15-minute ascent and descent.
Reasoning
The rock is wet — rain has fallen intermittently since 06:00 today totalling ~4.6mm, with humidity at 90–95% throughout the morning and early afternoon, meaning surfaces have had no opportunity to dry.
With 100% cloud cover, humidity consistently above 85%, and ongoing light precipitation, the west-facing aspect and exposed wind have been unable to drive any meaningful evaporation today.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural damage when wet; the risk is purely friction loss on slippery surfaces.
Mid-summer conditions should normally be favourable, but this unsettled Atlantic weather pattern with frequent light rain and high humidity is keeping the crag persistently damp.
Contributing Factors
6
Intermittent precipitation throughout the day (4.6mm total) with showers from 06:00 through to mid-afternoon means surfaces are actively wet.
Humidity has been 85–95% all day, preventing any evaporation from rock surfaces even during brief dry spells.
100% cloud cover for most of the day eliminates solar warming that would otherwise help dry the rock.
Winds of 18–26 km/h would normally help drying, but are ineffective when humidity is this high and rain is ongoing.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so once rain stops and conditions improve the rock will dry relatively quickly from the surface.
At 400m with 100% cloud cover and humidity above 90%, the plateau is very likely sitting in low cloud, adding condensation moisture beyond direct rainfall.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is wet and slippery, and conditions are not expected to improve before dark.
- Tomorrow (Aug 5) looks marginally better with only trace precipitation forecast, but assess conditions carefully on arrival as humidity remains high.
- The best window in the coming days appears to be August 7, which is forecast dry with lower humidity — plan around that if possible.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
60%
12 days ago
Light overnight rain (0.2mm) has been followed by a clear, dry, and breezy window from around 09:00–16:00 today, which should allow the exposed rhyolite to dry quickly. However, rain returns from 17:00 onwards and a very wet spell is forecast for the coming days, so any climbing window today is narrow and conditions should be visually confirmed on arrival.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The plateau's fully exposed, perched position catches wind from all directions, meaning even light surface moisture from overnight drizzle can evaporate within a couple of hours on a breezy morning.
- The west-facing aspect means afternoon sun hits the boulders directly during the clear midday window today, boosting drying alongside the SE wind.
- The steep 15-minute scree approach can itself become slippery in wet conditions — factor this in when assessing the late-afternoon rain window for a safe descent.
- Some boulders on the plateau sit in slight hollows or have overhanging faces that can hold seepage or condensation longer than the exposed tops, so check individual problems carefully.
Warnings
2
- Rain is forecast to return from 17:00 today — do not linger late as the rhyolite becomes very slippery when wet and the scree descent is hazardous in wet conditions.
- The coming week looks very wet (35mm+ forecast); today's midday window may be the last viable session for 5+ days.
Reasoning
Very light precipitation overnight (0.2mm total from 01:00–02:00) on non-porous rhyolite at an exposed 400m plateau, with several hours of dry, moderate wind and dropping humidity through the morning, means surfaces are likely dry by late morning but residual dampness in sheltered spots is possible.
SE winds of 19–23 km/h and humidity dropping to 42–46% through midday, combined with direct sun on the west-facing rock from late morning, provide excellent drying conditions — the light overnight moisture should evaporate within 2–3 hours of the dry spell beginning around 05:00.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural weakening when wet; no hold breakage or rock damage risk from recent moisture.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm temperatures (up to 25°C) are ideal for rapid drying, though the incoming Atlantic low from tomorrow brings a markedly wetter and cooler pattern.
Contributing Factors
6
Only 0.2mm fell overnight (01:00–02:00), a trivial amount on non-porous rock but enough to leave a surface film that needs drying.
From 05:00–16:00 there is no rain, with winds of 15–23 km/h, humidity dropping to 42%, and clear skies through midday — ideal for drying the exposed plateau.
Rain is forecast from 17:00 onwards (1.0mm+ through the evening), closing the climbing window and wetting the rock again.
The plateau's full wind exposure at 400m accelerates evaporation of any surface moisture on the dense rhyolite.
Average humidity over the past week has been 76%, and recent days have seen persistent light showers, meaning ambient moisture levels are elevated and condensation risk is higher.
Nearly 36mm of rain is forecast over the next 6 days, indicating today's midday window may be the last good opportunity for some time.
Recommendations
3
- Aim to arrive by late morning (10:00–11:00) to maximise the dry window; plan to leave by 16:00 before evening rain arrives.
- Visually and physically check holds for residual moisture before committing to problems — especially any north-facing or sheltered faces.
- Bring approach shoes with good grip for the scree descent, which will likely be damp from overnight rain and may worsen if you descend after the evening showers begin.
Climbing Outlook