Condition Analysis
AI-powered assessment using site data and 14-day weather history
Sheep Pen Boulders are currently wet from significant rainfall today (12.5mm, much of it falling through the morning), and the forecast shows a prolonged spell of heavy rain over the next three days totalling nearly 60mm. Conditions are unsuitable for climbing today and will remain so for most of the coming week.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The exposed plateau position normally aids rapid drying, but with near-continuous rain forecast through August 29th, wind exposure cannot compensate for ongoing saturation.
- At 400m altitude, persistent 100% cloud cover today means the boulders are likely in mist, adding condensation moisture on top of rainfall.
- The west aspect means afternoon sun is the primary drying mechanism, but full cloud cover and high humidity (85–94%) are eliminating any solar drying benefit today.
- The steep scree approach will be slippery and unpleasant in wet conditions — consider this an additional hazard during the current wet spell.
Warnings
2
- The scree approach to Sheep Pen is hazardous when wet — take extra care and allow more time.
- Rhyolite becomes extremely slippery when wet; do not attempt problems even if surfaces appear merely damp.
Reasoning
The rock is currently wet from 12.5mm of rain today, with heavy showers through the morning and early afternoon leaving surface moisture across all boulders.
Despite the exposed position, near-100% cloud cover, very high humidity (86–94%), and light winds through the afternoon prevent meaningful drying today, and 19.9mm is forecast for tomorrow.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural damage from moisture, so hold breakage is not a concern.
Late August in Snowdonia is entering the wetter transition period; this multi-day frontal system is typical and conditions are unlikely to recover before September 1st at the earliest.
Contributing Factors
6
12.5mm of precipitation today, with the heaviest bursts mid-morning, has left all boulder surfaces wet.
The next three days bring a further 59mm of rain (19.9 + 27.1 + 12.2mm), preventing any meaningful drying.
Humidity has been 86–94% throughout today and is forecast to remain above 85% for the next three days, severely inhibiting surface evaporation.
Complete overcast today and likely cloud immersion at 400m eliminates solar drying.
Strong winds (up to 35 km/h today, 28–34 km/h on Aug 29–30) will assist drying once rain stops, potentially allowing rapid recovery.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so once rain ceases and wind picks up, surface drying can occur within hours.
Recommendations
3
- Do not visit today or in the next three days — conditions are wet and the forecast is for sustained heavy rain.
- Target September 1st as the earliest realistic dry window, when precipitation drops to zero and wind should clear residual moisture.
- If visiting around August 31st, check conditions on arrival — the strong SW winds and reduced rainfall may have dried exposed faces, but sheltered or north-facing surfaces may remain damp.
Previous Analyses
Likely Safe to Climb
85%
57 days ago
After two full dry days with good wind and dropping humidity, the non-porous rhyolite at Sheep Pen should be dry and offering excellent friction today. The exposed plateau and consistent breeze will have cleared surface moisture from the recent rain on Aug 20–21; conditions look ideal this afternoon.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The boulders sit on an exposed plateau at 400m that catches wind from all directions, meaning surface moisture clears rapidly — often within hours of rain stopping.
- West-facing aspect means afternoon and evening sun hits the rock directly, aiding drying; morning sessions may encounter residual condensation on shaded faces.
- The steep scree approach can be slippery when wet, so even on dry-rock days after recent rain, take care on the walk-in.
- Some lower problems near the base of boulders can retain seepage or puddles longer than the main faces due to drainage from above; check landing zones.
Reasoning
The last significant rain fell on Aug 20–21 (17.7mm combined), followed by two and a half dry days with moderate wind and declining humidity — ample time for non-porous rhyolite to shed all surface moisture.
Consistent 13–25 km/h winds across the exposed plateau, combined with today's low humidity (dropping to 40% by afternoon) and clear skies, ensure thorough surface drying.
Rhyolite is non-porous and extremely hard; there is no structural risk from recent moisture, and hold breakage due to water ingress is not a concern.
Mid-summer conditions with long daylight hours and warm temperatures provide an excellent drying environment; today's 20°C peak and 56% average humidity are near-ideal for friction climbing.
Contributing Factors
5
No rain since Aug 22 (0.1mm trace), giving over 48 hours of drying on non-porous rock — more than sufficient.
Humidity drops to 40–45% this afternoon with clear skies, providing excellent friction conditions on the rough rhyolite.
The site's fully exposed position at 400m with steady 14–25 km/h winds accelerates surface drying considerably.
26.2mm fell in the past 7 days including 17.7mm on Aug 20–21, but non-porous rock does not absorb water so this is not a structural concern.
A significant rain system arrives mid-week with nearly 78mm forecast over 4 days, making today and tomorrow the best window.
Recommendations
3
- Climb today — conditions are excellent, especially from late morning through evening when humidity is lowest and the west-facing rock catches afternoon sun.
- Plan to make the most of today and tomorrow (Aug 25) as a heavy rain system arrives from Aug 26 onwards, likely closing the window for several days.
- Check landing zones and lower boulder bases for any residual dampness from last week's rain before committing to problems.
Marginal — Assess Conditions
55%
58 days ago
Heavy rain on Aug 20–21 (17.7mm combined) was followed by only 1.5 dry days with high humidity, but today is dry with moderate wind and the exposed plateau position aids drying. Surface rock may be dry on wind-exposed faces but sheltered spots and seepage could linger; visual assessment on arrival is essential.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The plateau's fully exposed position catches wind from all directions, which significantly accelerates surface drying on this non-porous rhyolite — even after heavy rain, wind-facing surfaces can dry within hours.
- At 400m in the Ogwen Valley, low cloud and mist can re-wet surfaces even on nominally dry days, and humidity has been consistently high (85% average over the past week).
- West-facing aspect means afternoon and evening sun only; morning sessions may encounter condensation or residual dampness, especially on north-facing boulder faces.
- The steep scree approach takes 15 minutes and conditions at road level in Ogwen may not reflect plateau conditions — cloud base, wind chill, and moisture levels are often markedly different at 400m.
Warnings
2
- Rhyolite becomes very slippery when wet — do not attempt slab or friction-dependent problems unless the surface is completely dry.
- Forecast deterioration from Aug 25 onward with heavy rain expected Aug 27–28 (41.6mm combined); conditions will become unsafe later in the week.
Reasoning
Two significant rain events on Aug 20 (8.8mm) and Aug 21 (8.9mm) were followed by only a trace of rain on Aug 22 and a dry day today, but persistently high humidity (77–83%) has limited evaporation.
The exposed plateau with moderate NW/N winds (14–17 km/h) over the last two days should have cleared surface moisture from wind-exposed rhyolite faces, though sheltered overhangs and recesses may retain dampness.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not absorb water, so there is no risk of structural weakening or hold breakage from recent rainfall.
Late August in Snowdonia brings shortening days and cooling temperatures (average 13.4°C this week), reducing drying efficiency compared to midsummer; conditions are trending toward autumn weather patterns.
Contributing Factors
6
17.7mm fell across Aug 20–21, with only 1.5 genuinely dry days since, creating a significant moisture load that needs clearing.
The site's exposed position at 400m catches wind effectively, and 14–17 km/h winds over the last two days will have stripped surface moisture from exposed rhyolite faces.
Average humidity of 85% over the past week significantly slows evaporation and can cause condensation to re-wet surfaces, even without rainfall.
No precipitation today with humidity dropping to 77% and a northerly breeze provides useful additional drying time.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so only surface moisture and seepage lines need to clear — no internal dampness concerns.
West-facing boulders only receive afternoon sun, meaning morning conditions are slower to warm and dry compared to east- or south-facing venues.
Recommendations
3
- Visit in the afternoon when the west-facing boulders have had maximum sun and wind exposure; bring a towel to test surfaces before committing to problems.
- Prioritise steep and overhanging problems on wind-exposed boulders, which will have dried fastest; avoid slabs and low-angle faces where residual moisture creates serious friction and safety concerns.
- Check conditions at the boulders before committing — the 15-minute approach means it's worth having a backup plan if the plateau is in cloud or surfaces remain damp.
Do Not Climb
40%
59 days ago
The last few days have seen significant rainfall (8.8mm on Aug 20, 8.9mm on Aug 21, and light drizzle today), with consistently high humidity around 84% limiting drying. Although the exposed position and non-porous rhyolite help, insufficient dry time has elapsed since nearly 18mm fell in two days, and today's conditions remain damp — the rock is likely still wet in places.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Sheep Pen's perched plateau position catches wind well, but the NW winds of recent days blow across the west-facing boulders without direct sun-warming, reducing drying efficiency.
- At 400m in the Ogwen Valley, cloud base frequently sits at or below crag level in unsettled spells — persistent mist and cloud contact can keep surfaces damp even without measurable rain.
- The 15-minute scree approach can be treacherous when wet; loose volcanic scree becomes slippery and the descent is more hazardous than the climb itself in damp conditions.
- Some boulder problems have north-facing facets and overhanging bases that hold seepage and condensation longer than the exposed tops, requiring individual inspection even when most rock appears dry.
Warnings
2
- Wet rhyolite at this grade range (V4–V12) is a serious fall hazard — friction loss on steep problems with small holds can cause unexpected slips onto boulder-field landings.
- Cloud contact at 400m is possible in current conditions; if you arrive and the crag is in mist, do not climb.
Reasoning
Nearly 18mm of rain fell across Aug 20–21 with only a trace-dry day today (0.1mm, 84% humidity), meaning surface moisture is very likely still present on many boulders.
The west-facing aspect receives only afternoon/evening sun, and recent NW winds at ~14–20 km/h provide moderate drying, but persistent high humidity (84%) severely limits evaporation — effective drying has barely begun.
Rhyolite is non-porous and structurally unaffected by moisture; the risk is entirely friction-related, with slippery wet surfaces on what are often steep, technical boulder problems.
Late August in Snowdonia brings shorter days, lower sun angles, and frequent Atlantic weather systems; the recent unsettled pattern with high humidity is typical and drying windows can be brief.
Contributing Factors
6
17.7mm fell across Aug 20–21, with only today's marginal drying available so far.
Humidity has averaged 84% over the last seven days, severely inhibiting surface evaporation even on exposed rock.
The plateau's exposed position catches wind effectively, which accelerates surface drying compared to sheltered valley crags.
The dense volcanic rock does not absorb water, so only surface moisture needs to evaporate for conditions to become safe.
At 400m with current temperatures around 13–14°C and high humidity, the crag may be in or near cloud, keeping surfaces persistently damp.
Tomorrow and especially Aug 24 look dry with dropping humidity (59%), offering a genuine drying opportunity.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until at least August 24 when humidity is forecast to drop to 59% with dry weather and moderate SE winds, giving the rock a proper drying window.
- If visiting sooner, carefully touch-test every hold and landing zone — wet rhyolite is deceptively slippery and many Sheep Pen problems are steep and technical.
- Take care on the scree approach, which will still be damp and loose; consider walking poles for the descent.
Do Not Climb
30%
60 days ago
Today has seen 12.2mm of rain on top of a very wet week (32.3mm in 7 days), so the boulders will be thoroughly wet right now. Although tomorrow and the following two days are forecast dry, the rock needs time to shed surface moisture and residual seepage after such a prolonged wet spell.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The exposed plateau position and persistent westerly winds will aid drying significantly once rain stops, but at 400m altitude cloud-base contact can keep surfaces damp even without rainfall.
- Seepage and pooling on boulder tops and in horizontal breaks is common after heavy spells in the Ogwen hills — even non-porous rhyolite can hold puddles and trickle water for hours.
- The west-facing aspect means afternoon and evening sun only; morning conditions may remain damp from overnight dew and residual moisture, especially with humidity above 80%.
- The steep scree approach can be treacherous when wet — take care on the 15-minute hillside scramble after recent heavy rain.
Warnings
2
- Do not climb today — 12.2mm of rain on rhyolite makes surfaces extremely slippery and dangerous for bouldering.
- The scree approach will be slick and loose after heavy rain; take extra care and allow additional time.
Reasoning
With 12.2mm today and 32.3mm over the past week, surface moisture will be heavy across all boulders, with water running off faces and pooling on flat surfaces.
The exposed position and moderate winds (~15 km/h NW) will begin drying surfaces once rain stops, but high humidity (85%) and cool temperatures (14.8°C) will slow evaporation significantly — expect at least a full dry day before reliable friction returns.
Rhyolite is non-porous and structurally unaffected by moisture; hold breakage is not a concern, but friction loss on wet crystalline surfaces is severe.
Late August in Snowdonia brings shortening days and increasingly unsettled Atlantic weather; the recent pattern of frequent frontal rain is typical and conditions can deteriorate quickly.
Contributing Factors
6
12.2mm of precipitation today means all boulder surfaces are currently saturated with standing water.
32.3mm over the past 7 days with only brief dry interludes means residual seepage and damp ground conditions persist.
Humidity averaging 84% over the past week with 85% today inhibits evaporation and may cause condensation on cold rock surfaces.
The plateau catches wind from all directions, which will accelerate surface drying once precipitation stops.
Rhyolite does not absorb water, so once surface moisture evaporates the rock will offer full friction with no structural concerns.
Two to three dry days forecast from Aug 22–24 should allow adequate drying time for an exposed venue like this.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until at least tomorrow afternoon (Aug 22) before visiting — the rock needs a full dry day with wind to clear surface moisture after today's heavy rain.
- Aim for August 23 or 24 for the best conditions this week; by then the rock should be dry with improving temperatures and lower humidity.
- Carry a towel and brush regardless — seepage lines and sheltered overhangs may retain dampness longer than exposed faces.
Do Not Climb
90%
61 days ago
Heavy rain today (16.2mm) following a very wet week (29.6mm in 7 days) means the rock is currently wet and conditions are unsuitable for climbing. High humidity (89%) and persistent cloud cover are preventing effective drying despite the exposed position.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- Sheep Pen's perched, exposed plateau position normally aids rapid drying, but at 400m the site is likely in cloud today given 100% cloud cover and near-saturated humidity, which will keep surfaces damp.
- The west-facing aspect receives no useful drying sun when cloud is total, and the prevailing NW wind today is not hitting the main face optimally.
- The steep scree approach will be slippery and unpleasant in wet conditions — consider this when planning return visits after rain.
- Despite the volcanic rock being non-porous, the boulders' horizontal surfaces and cracks can hold pooled water and seepage for longer than vertical faces, especially after heavy sustained rain.
Warnings
2
- The scree approach to Sheep Pen is hazardous when wet — take extra care if visiting to check conditions.
- Bouldering on wet rhyolite is extremely dangerous due to sudden friction loss on an otherwise high-friction surface — falls from even moderate height can cause serious injury.
Reasoning
With 16.2mm of rain today — including heavy bursts of 5.8mm and 4.3mm mid-morning and 5.0mm mid-afternoon — the rock surface is thoroughly wet and will not dry meaningfully today given near-saturated humidity.
Despite the exposed position, persistent cloud cover at altitude, humidity above 80%, and continued rain showers mean negligible evaporative drying is occurring; the brief drier window from 16:00–20:00 is insufficient to dry surfaces after this volume of rain.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural damage when wet, so hold integrity is not a concern.
Late August in Snowdonia brings increasingly unsettled Atlantic weather; this wet spell is typical, and the dropping temperatures (max 13.7°C today) slow drying compared to mid-summer conditions.
Contributing Factors
6
16.2mm of precipitation today with major bursts at 09:00 (5.8mm), 10:00 (4.3mm), and 15:00 (5.0mm) has left rock surfaces thoroughly soaked.
29.6mm over the past 7 days means the site has had virtually no sustained dry period to fully dry out between rain events.
Humidity averaging 89% today with peaks above 95% severely limits evaporative drying, especially at 400m where cloud immersion is likely.
The exposed plateau catches wind (20.9 km/h NW today) which helps surface drying once rain stops, but cannot overcome current saturation.
Rhyolite does not absorb water so drying is purely a surface process; once rain stops and humidity drops, usable friction returns relatively quickly.
100% cloud cover for most of the day at 400m likely means the boulders are in mist, adding condensation moisture on top of rainfall.
Recommendations
3
- Do not climb today — the rock is wet and dangerously slippery; wait for a sustained dry window.
- The earliest realistic session is August 23rd if the forecast dry spell materialises; arrive after midday to allow morning dew to clear.
- Monitor conditions closely — if the site is in cloud on arrival, the rock will be damp from condensation even without rain; be prepared to walk away.
Do Not Climb
40%
62 days ago
The rock is currently wet from recent heavy rain (6.1mm on Aug 18, 2.9mm today including early-morning showers), and although a dry window opens from mid-morning through the afternoon, high humidity at 400m and further heavy rain forecast tonight and tomorrow (10.9mm) make conditions unreliable. The coming days look persistently wet, with significant rainfall forecast through Aug 21.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 400m on an exposed plateau above the Ogwen Valley, the boulders are frequently in cloud during humid, unsettled spells — condensation can keep rock damp even between showers.
- The west-facing aspect means afternoon/evening sun only, limiting solar drying during the available dry window today.
- The exposed, windy position normally accelerates drying, but with humidity above 80% for much of the day the wind cannot efficiently evaporate surface moisture.
- The steep problems (V4–V12) at Sheep Pen demand excellent friction — even marginal dampness on rhyolite at this grade range creates a serious slip risk.
Warnings
2
- Heavy rain (10.9mm) is forecast tomorrow — do not plan a trip for Aug 20.
- High-grade friction-dependent problems on rhyolite are extremely dangerous when even slightly damp; a slip at this venue with its boulder-field landing could result in serious injury.
Reasoning
The rock is very likely still damp from 6.1mm on Aug 18 and early-morning rain today (0.7mm before 08:00), compounded by overnight humidity above 93% at altitude.
A dry spell from ~10:00 to ~21:00 with moderate SW wind (15–19 km/h) and dropping humidity (to ~64% by 13:00) could dry exposed surfaces within a few hours, but the west aspect limits direct sun to the afternoon.
Rhyolite is non-porous and structurally unaffected by moisture — no hold breakage or rock damage risk.
Mid-August in Snowdonia is peak summer but this unsettled spell with temperatures only 13–15°C and high humidity is poor for drying, especially at 400m altitude.
Contributing Factors
6
12.5mm fell over Aug 17–18 followed by nearly 3mm today, leaving rock surfaces thoroughly wetted.
No precipitation is forecast from 10:00 to 21:00 with moderate wind, allowing some surface drying.
Average humidity remains 70–85% through the day at 400m, slowing evaporation significantly.
Consistent 15–20 km/h winds across the open plateau aid surface drying despite the humidity.
10.9mm forecast for Aug 20 with 91% humidity means any drying today will be immediately reversed.
West-facing boulders only receive direct sun in the afternoon, reducing total solar drying hours.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for the prolonged dry spell forecast from Aug 24 onwards — conditions should be significantly better by then.
- If you must visit today, the best window is 12:00–17:00 when humidity is lowest; test friction carefully on easier problems before committing to harder lines.
- Check the UKC and local conditions forums for seepage reports — some problems at Sheep Pen have known drainage issues after sustained wet weather.
Do Not Climb
70%
63 days ago
Today saw 3.8mm of rain overnight with 100% cloud cover and high humidity throughout; the rock is almost certainly still damp. The forecast for the next three days brings a further 26+ mm of rain, making conditions unsuitable for the immediate future.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 400m on an exposed plateau, the site is frequently engulfed in low cloud and mist, which can keep surfaces damp even without direct rainfall.
- The west-facing aspect means afternoon/evening sun only — combined with 100% cloud cover today, solar drying is essentially zero.
- The exposed, wind-swept position normally aids rapid drying on rhyolite, but persistent high humidity (80–99%) today negates much of that benefit.
- The steep scree approach becomes slippery in wet conditions, adding risk beyond the bouldering itself.
Warnings
2
- The steep scree approach is hazardous when wet — take extra care on the 15-minute ascent.
- Rhyolite loses significant friction when damp; high-grade problems (V4–V12) on smeary holds become dangerous.
Reasoning
Overnight rain (3.8mm) combined with near-saturating humidity (89–99%) and complete cloud cover means rock surfaces are very likely still wet or at least damp.
Despite moderate westerly wind (~20 km/h), the persistent 80–99% humidity and zero sun through 100% cloud cover severely limit evaporative drying on this west-facing crag.
Rhyolite is non-porous and does not suffer structural damage when wet; the risk is entirely friction loss on slippery surfaces.
Mid-August should be prime season, but this unsettled spell with Atlantic fronts is bringing persistent moisture and below-average temperatures to the Ogwen Valley.
Contributing Factors
5
3.8mm fell today, mostly in the early hours, leaving surfaces wet.
Humidity has been 80–99% all day, preventing effective surface drying.
100% cloud cover throughout the day eliminates solar heating and drying.
Steady 15–20 km/h westerly wind helps move moisture off rock surfaces, partially offsetting the humidity.
14.4mm forecast for Aug 20 and 9.5mm for Aug 21 will re-saturate any surfaces that dry.
Recommendations
3
- Wait until at least August 23 when a dry window with lower humidity may allow the rock to dry properly.
- If you do visit during this wet spell, have an alternative low-level or indoor venue planned as a backup.
- Check conditions visually on arrival — even after a dry day, seepage and residual dampness in sheltered nooks can persist at this altitude.
Do Not Climb
40%
64 days ago
Light rain fell through the middle of today and the rock is likely still damp, with very high humidity (88%) and 100% cloud cover limiting drying at 400m. A brief window this late afternoon may allow surface drying on the most exposed faces, but conditions are marginal and a prolonged wet spell is forecast from tomorrow.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- At 400m on a west-facing plateau above Ogwen, the boulders are frequently in cloud when humidity exceeds ~90%, meaning condensation can keep surfaces wet even without rain.
- The exposed, perched position is excellent for wind-drying, but today's winds have been light through the morning (5–11 km/h) and only pick up late evening — limiting effective drying after the midday rain.
- The steep scree approach takes ~15 minutes and is itself slippery in wet conditions, adding risk on the walk-in.
- Rhyolite here is superb for friction when dry but becomes treacherously slick when damp — on steep V4–V12 problems, even a thin film of moisture significantly increases fall risk.
Warnings
2
- Rock surfaces at 400m may appear dry but still carry an invisible film of condensation in high-humidity cloud conditions — test friction thoroughly before committing to any problem.
- A prolonged wet spell (33.8mm over the next 5 days) is forecast; plan accordingly and do not rely on short dry windows between showers.
Reasoning
1.6mm of rain today, with the bulk falling between 10:00 and 13:00, means the rock surface is currently wet or damp, compounded by near-saturation humidity levels at altitude.
A dry window from 14:00 onward with moderate wind (12 km/h) and west aspect catching some afternoon sun could begin surface drying, but 100% cloud cover and 78–85% humidity severely limit evaporation rates.
Rhyolite is non-porous and structurally unaffected by moisture — no risk of hold breakage or route damage from climbing damp rock.
Mid-August provides adequate daylight and reasonable temperatures, but the current Atlantic weather pattern is bringing persistent moisture and a major wet spell is forecast for the coming days.
Contributing Factors
6
1.6mm of precipitation concentrated between 10:00–13:00 has left rock surfaces wet.
Humidity has been 88–100% for most of today at 400m, likely keeping the boulders in cloud and inhibiting evaporation.
100% cloud cover throughout today eliminates solar drying, the most effective mechanism for surface moisture removal.
The plateau position catches wind well, and the late-afternoon breeze (12 km/h) will help some surface drying.
No rain forecast from 14:00 through evening gives a potential 5+ hour dry window, though humidity remains high.
4.0mm tomorrow followed by 7.7mm, 7.4mm, and 11.5mm in subsequent days means conditions will deteriorate significantly.
Recommendations
3
- If you are already at the crag, wait until at least 15:00–16:00 and test friction carefully on easy warm-up problems before committing to harder lines.
- Consider postponing your visit — conditions will be poor for the rest of the week, with the next realistic window likely being August 23 or later.
- The scree approach will be slippery in current conditions; take extra care on the walk-in and bring appropriate footwear.
Do Not Climb
45%
65 days ago
Today has seen light rain (0.4mm) and the rock may still have surface moisture; with humidity at 77% and light winds (10.4 km/h SW), drying will be slow. The forecast shows a prolonged wet spell arriving tomorrow through the 20th, making the next several days poor for climbing.
Based on weather conditions only — does not cover bird nesting restrictions or other access issues.
- The exposed plateau position normally aids rapid drying, but today's light SW winds (10.4 km/h) are below the site's typical exposure benefit, reducing the drying advantage.
- The west-facing aspect means afternoon sun could help dry surfaces today, but with overcast humid conditions this benefit is limited.
- Recent rain on the 14th (2.1mm) and 15th (0.3mm) preceded today's 0.4mm, creating three days of intermittent moisture on what had been a well-dried surface.
- The steep scree approach can become slippery and hazardous in wet conditions — factor this into your planning given the incoming weather front.
Warnings
2
- The scree approach will become increasingly treacherous during the incoming wet spell — exercise extreme caution if ascending in rain.
- Friction on rhyolite drops dramatically when wet; even a thin film of moisture can cause unexpected slips on steep boulder problems.
Reasoning
Today's 0.4mm of rain on top of light precipitation on the 14th and 15th means surfaces are likely damp, particularly on sheltered faces and in seepage zones.
With only 10.4 km/h SW winds and 77% humidity, drying will be sluggish despite the exposed position; the rock needs several hours of dry, breezy conditions to fully shed surface moisture.
Rhyolite is non-porous and structurally unaffected by moisture — no risk of hold breakage or rock damage from climbing while damp.
Mid-August conditions are reasonable for drying in principle, but an Atlantic weather front is arriving, bringing a sustained wet period over the next four days.
Contributing Factors
7
0.4mm of precipitation today means surfaces may still carry moisture, especially on shaded or north-facing boulder faces.
Winds at 10.4 km/h are well below the recent average for this exposed site, slowing surface evaporation.
Humidity at 77% impedes evaporation and may cause condensation on cooler rock surfaces at 400m altitude.
Rain on the 14th, 15th, and today means the rock has not had a sustained dry period since the excellent conditions of the 11th–13th.
The volcanic rock does not absorb water, so once surface moisture evaporates, friction returns quickly.
The perched, open location normally catches wind effectively, aiding rapid drying when conditions allow.
The forecast shows 23.2mm of rain from the 17th to the 20th, making conditions progressively worse over the coming days.
Recommendations
3
- Wait for a sustained dry window — conditions today are marginal and the forecast deteriorates significantly from tomorrow.
- If you do visit today, test friction carefully on lower problems first; the rock may feel greasy despite appearing dry.
- Monitor forecasts for August 21st–22nd, which show the first signs of clearing and may offer a viable session after adequate drying.
Climbing Outlook